We will soon know if Finland joins NATO.

The country's Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, said on Wednesday that Finland's decision on this matter "will come quite quickly.

In a few weeks, not a few months”.

Ahead of the start of a debate in parliament next week, the Finnish government on Wednesday published an urgently commissioned strategic review after the attack on Ukraine.

The text insists on the fact that only members of NATO benefit from the umbrella of collective defense of the famous article 5 of the organization.

Joining the 30-member US-led alliance would provide "significantly greater" deterrence against an attack on Finland, the "white paper" claims.

The war made the Finns change their minds

A NATO summit is scheduled for June 29 and 30 in Madrid and most analysts expect the announcement of a Finnish candidacy by then.

Paradox: a war against Ukraine launched by Moscow by invoking the threat of the extension of NATO to its doors risks, by tipping Finland into its ranks, doubling the length of the land borders between Russia and alliance.

Currently, the Nordic country shares a border of nearly 1,300 kilometers with Russia.

Prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, Finland breaking with its historic line of non-military alliance was highly unlikely.

"Everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine," acknowledged Sanna Marin.

Membership support, which had hovered around 20-25% for decades in Finland, has almost tripled to over 60% or even 70%.

In Parliament too, a clear majority is emerging.

Among the deputies who have already made their position known, around 100 out of 200 are in favor of membership and only 12 are against, according to Finnish media reports.

Four to twelve months to join NATO

According to Helsinki, NATO believes it takes four to 12 months to complete the process to make Finland the 31st member of the alliance – which requires unanimous agreement and ratification.

What reaction from Russia?

Moscow warned Helsinki, stressing that membership would have “political and military consequences”.

"Russia will most likely make noise, show its displeasure and be threatening," said Robert Dalsjö.

But "I don't think we'll see violent things."

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