The challenge of this 3rd round
Presidents who have benefited from legislative elections organized in the wake of their election have always obtained a majority.
In 2017, against a background of degagism, Emmanuel Macron had even obtained for LREM-MoDem 350 of the 577 seats.
But will the French be inclined to give such a majority, often synonymous with full powers, to the future head of state, whoever he may be?
Or will their votes result in cohabitation?
Seven weeks separate the second round of presidential elections from the first round of legislative elections.
A long delay, during which each side will have to negotiate.
Couperet on May 20 for the submission of applications.
The 308 LREM deputies elected to the legislative elections pose on June 24, 2017 at the Hôtel de Lassay, in Paris Gilles BASSIGNAC AFP / Archives
What majority for a re-elected Macron?
Whether the outgoing president wins hands down or not, the macronists do not expect easy legislative elections.
But one step after another: the nominations will be given after April 24.
According to an outgoing deputy, it is "a black box", with the President of the Assembly Richard Ferrand (LREM) in charge who has started bilateral exchanges with the partners MoDem, Agir, Territories of progress, and still Horizons by Edward Philippe.
Emmanuel Macron's very strategy remains to be defined, depending on his score.
One thing is certain: he ruled out a dissolution.
For the rest, the president-candidate indicated on Sunday evening that he wanted to found "a great political movement of unity and action", and "to reach out to all those who want to work for France".
Some are urging him to do so before the June elections.
Emmanuel Macron speaks with the President of the National Assembly Richard Ferrand (D), April 5, 2022 in Spézet, Finistère Ludovic MARIN AFP / Archives
Some of the deputies of the outgoing majority risk paying the price, having to make way for newcomers.
"It's going to bleed," says a parliamentary source.
About thirty LREM out of nearly 270 do not represent themselves.
What majority if Le Pen wins?
Could Marine Le Pen obtain a majority without alliances?
His adviser Philippe Olivier and the deputy Sébastien Chenu are at the helm.
The candidate says she is certain of rallying "from the right" and "from the left" sovereigntist to "govern" with her.
RN presidential candidate Marine Le Pen on the 8 p.m. set of TF1 on April 12, 2022 in Boulogne-Billancourt, in the Paris region JULIEN DE ROSA AFP
Until then, the legislative elections have not succeeded, because of the majority ballot in two rounds.
In 2017, the National Front, ancestor of the RN, had totaled 13.2% of the vote and 2.9 million votes in the 1st round.
Present in 120 constituencies in the second round, he had won only eight seats.
This year, would she reach out to Reconquest, the party of Eric Zemmour?
"If she wins the elections, she will be on cloud nine, there will be zero dialogue with us. If the RN does not win, she finds herself at the starting point with a party that is going badly", comments a part of the Zemmourist party.
On the right, save the furniture
After the presidential berezina, LR is counting on its "territorial anchorage", which has "always allowed it to survive", according to party president Christian Jacob.
LREM, RN and LFI "will want to nationalize the legislative debate, but our challenge is to make it an ultra-local ballot", supports MP Pierre-Henri Dumont.
LR president Christian Jacob at a press conference in Paris on April 11, 2022 Alain JOCARD AFP
Does the LR group - currently 101 deputies - fear new poaching, especially in the event of Emmanuel Macron's victory?
"Perhaps two or three more, but those who were to leave have already done so," we are assured internally.
Others fear heartbreak: according to several deputies, Nicolas Sarkozy would push the idea of a coalition with Emmanuel Macron.
On the left, Mélenchon in a strong position
The often acrimonious presidential campaign between left-wing parties, and the quasi-hegemony of Jean-Luc Mélenchon on April 10 in this electorate, have reshuffled the cards.
Insubordinate France aims to "impose cohabitation" on Emmanuel Macron, or at least multiply at the Palais Bourbon where LFI has 17 deputies since 2017.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon addresses his supporters on April 10, 2022 at the Cirque d'hiver in Paris Emmanuel DUNAND AFP / Archives
More modestly, socialists and communists hope to save their seats, and ecologists, who do not have a group, make their way.
But without alliances, the equation can be complicated.
At odds with LFI, the PS is considering reviving a government left.
But does not exclude a "technical" agreement with the rebellious for June.
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© 2022 AFP