Zhongxin Finance, April 13 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) CICC released a research report on the 13th, saying that although the US CPI in March increased by 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level since 1981, the inflation data is not expected to affect the Fed's monetary tightening. , to maintain the Fed's judgment that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May and June, and will raise interest rates by 100 basis points in the second half of the year.

　　CICC believes that the U.S. inflation data in March reflects two things: one is the energy supply shock brought about by the Russia-Ukraine incident.

The second is that after the Omicron epidemic subsided, consumer demand switched from goods to services.

　　Among them, the US CPI inflation in March increased by 1.2% month-on-month, higher than the 0.8% increase in the previous month, and the biggest contribution came from the sharp rise in energy prices.

Affected by the Russia-Ukraine incident, energy prices in the United States rose by 11% month-on-month in March, and the year-on-year growth rate was as high as 32%.

Among them, fuel prices rose by 22% month-on-month, and gasoline prices rose by 18.3% month-on-month.

　　So, has U.S. inflation peaked?

CICC believes that, looking ahead, due to the high base from April to June last year, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in the United States may peak in stages.

But it should not be over-interpreted, because this does not mean that demand has weakened, but with the arrival of summer, travel demand may be further released.

In addition, the uncertainty of energy and food prices is high, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI in the United States may not decline.

　　Another question is, does the Fed focus only on core CPI and pay less attention to inflation caused by rising oil prices?

In this regard, CICC pointed out that Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, pointed out in 2004 that the impact of rising oil prices on US monetary policy depends on the initial state of the economy. If inflation is low when oil prices rise, and inflation expectations are stable, then monetary policy No need to tighten.

But if inflation is already near the upper end of the acceptable range, and policymakers see the risk of inflation rising further, strong monetary tightening will be necessary.

With the current strong labor market in the U.S. and inflation well above target, the Fed is expected to take inflation from rising oil prices seriously.

　　Overall, CICC believes that the US March inflation data will not affect the Fed's monetary tightening.

After the inflation data was released, U.S. stocks rose and U.S. bond interest rates fell, reflecting the market took some comfort from the fact that inflation did not exceed expectations.

For the Fed, there is a high probability that it will continue to raise interest rates and "shrink the balance sheet", maintaining a 50 basis point interest rate hike in May and June, and will increase interest rates by 100 basis points in the second half of the year, and the federal funds rate will rise to 2 by the end of the year. % or more.

In addition, the probability of the official announcement of "shrinking the table" in May is still relatively high.

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