WTO annual report: Russia-Ukraine conflict jeopardizes global trade recovery
Xinhua News Agency, Geneva, April 12 (Reporter Chen Binjie) The annual global trade forecast report released by the World Trade Organization on the 12th believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine jeopardizes the already fragile recovery of global trade.
The report predicts that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world merchandise trade volume will increase by 3.0% in 2022, a growth rate lower than the previous forecast of 4.7%; the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.4%.
The global economy at market exchange rates is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2022, down 1.3 percentage points from a previous forecast of 4.1 percent, according to WTO economists' simulations.
Global economic growth will pick up to 3.2% in 2023, close to the average growth rate of 3.0% from 2010 to 2019.
Output in the Commonwealth of Independent States, excluding Ukraine, is expected to fall sharply by 7.9% in 2022, while imports in the region will contract by 12.0%, the report said.
The report analyzed that the most direct economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was a sharp rise in commodity prices.
Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of basic commodities such as food, energy and fertilizers, and grain shipments through Black Sea ports have stopped, with potentially dire consequences for food security in low-income countries.
WTO Director-General Ivira said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has damaged the world economy, and its negative impact has been transmitted to all parts of the world. Low-income countries will face a particularly severe threat. Reduced supply and rising food prices will have a serious impact on the lives of low-income people. Influence.
Iweala called for governments and multilateral organizations to work together to facilitate trade in the face of inflation and supply chain pressures.
"Restricting trade will threaten the well-being of households and businesses and make the task of building a durable economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic even more difficult," she said.