Ethiopia: the noose is tightening around the Tigrayans

Fighters from the Tigray rebel forces in Ethiopia, June 2021. AFP - YASUYOSHI CHIBA

Text by: Léonard Vincent Follow

2 mins

As the siege of the Tigray region continues, causing an unprecedented famine, and no agreement is in sight to end the war, tension is mounting in the Horn of Africa.

Recent military movements on the ground could be signs of preparation for a possible resumption of fighting.

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Traditionally, the most favorable time for military operations in Tigray is after Easter, in April, and before the onset of the rains, in July.

This is the opinion of a veteran of the war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, who adds that in 2020, this is when the Tigrayan rebellion had launched its counter-offensive. on its capital Mekele and regained control of the province within weeks.

The deadline is therefore approaching, while

the political and humanitarian blockage is obvious

.

"

 If it wants to break the state of siege, the Tigrayan leadership cannot wait too long

 ," said Professor Kjetil Tronvoll, a researcher in peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College.

“ 

He cannot risk his soldiers, in turn, starting to starve to death

.

»

However, the only line of supply for the Tigrayan rebellion in light equipment and, possibly, in recruits passes through Sudan, where the camps of refugees who have fled the fighting are located and where young men are ready to do battle with the army. federal government and the Amhara militias that chased them from their homes.

Maintaining the diplomatic balancing act

 "

It is in this context

that Eritrea

drew closer to Sudan on Monday April 11, Asmara expressing its " 

support

 " for the isolated regime in Khartoum, during an official visit by the Eritrean Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Should these testimonies of friendship between Asmara and Khartoum constitute a reason for concern for the Tigrayan leaders and soldiers?

“ 

Not yet 

,” replies Kjetil Tronvoll, for whom Monday's visit does not indicate at this stage a “ 

change in the level of cooperation

 ” between the two regimes.

It's just about maintaining Khartoum's diplomatic balancing act between the different players in the region

 ," he said.

That said, for their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea are also reorganizing their troops, with a view to a possible resumption of fighting.

A diplomatic source evokes the sending of reinforcements on all fronts around the Tigrayans, in particular in Humera, Rama and in the enclave of Wolkait, in the West, on the front of Zalambessa and Badme on the Northern border, and in the South , around the city of Woldiya, as well as massive recruitment campaigns, in the province of Amhara and in Eritrea.

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  • Ethiopia

  • Eritrea

  • Sudan