As five years ago, the second round of the presidential election will pit Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen.
Sunday evening, many candidates called to stand up against the National Rally.
But on the side of the voters, does the Republican front still exist?
Five points difference, or even less.
In the aftermath of the first round of the presidential election which qualified Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen for the second round, this is all that separates the two candidates vying for the Elysée, according to the latest polls.
So, thirteen days before the second round, for the outgoing president as for the leader of the National Rally, it is time for the seduction operation, to convince, or at the very least rally the voters of the ousted candidates to vote for them.
And the two each knock down their strengths.
Neither left nor right, Emmanuel Macron wants to gather around him the left and (especially) the right.
And if he no longer exists according to him, he is betting on a Republican front which could still do its business on April 24 at the polls, calling on disappointed voters to give him their vote.
“Some will do it to block the far right.
And I am fully aware that it will not be worth supporting the project that I am carrying, and I respect it, ”he said on Sunday evening.
For her part, strong with a normalized image, Marine Le Pen plays the card of the defense of purchasing power and social justice, very clearly calling on left-wing voters to join her.
Which strategy will prevail?
Does the Republican Front still exist?
Is blocking the far right still a principle dear to the voters who have complied with it so far?
Early voting instructions from other candidates
As soon as the results were announced on Sunday evening, with a poster that looked like deja vu, many candidates ousted from the race for the Elysée Palace immediately announced their intention to vote for the second round.
And there are many who call for a front against the National Rally, on the left, but not only.
Arrived third in the ballot, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said it then repeated three times on Sunday evening: "We must not give a single vote to Mrs. Le Pen".
“I call for blocking the far right by depositing an Emmanuel Macron ballot in the ballot box,” said Yannick Jadot.
Ditto for Fabien Roussel, who "calls to beat the far right, to defeat it by using the only bulletin that will be available".
In tune,
If, without surprise, Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan call to vote for Marine Le Pen, on the right, Valérie Pécresse assured it: "I will vote in conscience Emmanuel Macron to prevent the coming to power of Marine Le Pen and the resulting chaos”.
“On the left, this allows parties that have divided and clashed to find a reason for minimal reconciliation.
But this appeal to the Republican front is above all very determined by what will happen in the legislative elections, analyzes Jérôme Sainte-Marie, political scientist and president of the PollingVox institute.
In particular for La France insoumise, which is thus positioning itself to approach the legislative elections in optimal conditions, without isolating itself in a populist position as was the case in 2017. It is therefore less directed against Marine Le Pen than concentrated on the better electoral strategy”.
As for the right, “there is more of an institutional dimension at Les Républicains, believes the political scientist.
It is a party which has many local executives and which does not want to find itself in difficulty in its local majorities,
“There is no longer a republican front”
But will the call be heard?
In 2002, when the notion of a republican front emerged, it largely united voters: Jacques Chirac was elected with 82.21% of the vote, against 17.79% for Jean-Marie Le Pen.
In 2017, with a poster identical to that of this year, Emmanuel Macron won with 66.10% of the vote, beating Marine Le Pen and her 33.90% of the vote.
But in 2022, does the Republican front still exist on the side of the voters?
Less than two weeks before the second round of voting, the polls do not go in this direction.
While an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for France Télévisions gives Emmanuel Macron the winner in the second round with 54% of the votes against 46% for Marine Le Pen, an Ifop-Fiducial poll for TF1/LCI credits Emmanuel Macron with 51% of the votes, against 49% for Marine Le Pen.
So, does the candidate president fear a surprise victory for his rival?
Is he betting on the Republican front to win?
"There is no longer a Republican front, I can't pretend it exists," he said on Monday while traveling to Denain, in the North.
“In 2017, there was no Republican front.
The Republican front was 2002,” he said.
And the outgoing president may be right to consider that the Republican front does not exist, because on the side of voters, the idea seems to have fizzled out.
“We are tired of being taken hostage.
I voted for Macron in the second round five years ago to block the FN.
But there, after five years of his policy, it is not possible, confides Nadia, a college professor, who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round.
I'm fiercely against the far right, especially when it comes to immigration, it's an absolute red line for me.
However, for the first time in my life, I'm tired of voting for a candidate whose program I don't like, nor his record, just to block another”.
The complicated seduction operation on left-wing voters
However, with a third place and 22% of the vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, his electorate is at the heart of the attention of the two candidates, who make eyes at this important reserve of votes.
For her part, Marine Le Pen poses as president of the people, purchasing power and social justice, and leads her anti-Macron front, tackling her retirement project at 65.
So, even if he does not believe in the Republican front, Emmanuel Macron assures him, "when the far right in all its forms represents so much in the country, we cannot consider that things are going well", he said. - he said on France 2. On the move in the North, the candidate president wanted to reassure the electorate on the left, cautious about voting for him.
“I'm here to convince, to also listen (…), I try to clarify my program by showing that it is fair and social.
I saw a lot of young people who told me “I voted for Mr. Mélenchon”, I try to convince them”.
Not enough to convert Céline, a contract school teacher who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and for whom the poster for the second round “comes down to choosing between contempt for class and contempt for race.
So I will vote white, no Republican front for me this year”.
“The problem is that a republican front today does not only aim to prevent Marine Le Pen from gaining power, it is also to allow the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, decrypts Jérôme Sainte-Marie.
And this is where the very strong social opposition that marked the beginning of the five-year term with the yellow vests weakens the idea of a republican front.
Today, half of LFI voters wish to abstain, a small quarter is ready to vote Marine Le Pen and a large quarter for Emmanuel Macron, schematizes the political scientist.
In addition, the image of Marine Le Pen today no longer lends itself to the Republican front, it has normalized after all these years of demonization, and even more so in the light of Eric Zemmour, ”continues the political scientist.
Moreover, if she does not consider for a moment to vote for Marine Le Pen,
Céline recognizes him as "a more convincing social inclination than Macron".
Thus, "between the social repositioning of Marine Le Pen, and the unprecedented social tensions that marred the start of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term, the distance for a Mélenchon voter is long enough to cover to rally the outgoing president, summarizes Jérôme Sainte Marie.
On the other hand, voters of ecological or socialist sensitivity who have rallied Mélenchon to "vote useful" will be more motivated to follow this republican front.
summarizes Jérôme Sainte-Marie.
On the other hand, voters of ecological or socialist sensitivity who have rallied Mélenchon to "vote useful" will be more motivated to follow this republican front.
summarizes Jérôme Sainte-Marie.
On the other hand, voters of ecological or socialist sensitivity who have rallied Mélenchon to "vote useful" will be more motivated to follow this republican front.
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Presidential election 2022
Marine Le Pen
National Rally (RN)
Emmanuel Macron
Jean-Luc Melenchon