Macron, Le Pen or abstention?

For whom will the voters of the candidates eliminated in the first round of the presidential election vote?

No sooner have the ballot boxes delivered their verdict than the polling institutes have already unveiled the first estimates of the vote carryovers for the second round. 

Voting intentions in the second round of the French presidential election.

© Graphic studio France Media World

>> To read: "His voice reserves are low": what strategy for Emmanuel Macron before the second round?

In a ballot where outgoing President Emmanuel Macron would win against Marine Le Pen by 54% of the vote against 46%, according to a first poll carried out on Sunday April 10 by the Ipsos Sopra Steria institute with a sample of 2,000 people. , it would seem that the votes of the unsuccessful candidates are distributed very unevenly between the two candidates in the second round.  

Postponement of votes for the second round of the presidential election.

© Graphic studio France Media World

"We must not give a single voice to Madame Le Pen", hammered Jean-Luc Mélenchon three times, after the results on Sunday.

Arriving third with 21.95% votes, the candidate of La France insoumise also did not call to vote for Emmanuel Macron, a position he had already adopted in 2017. In this context, it is not surprising to see a scattering of the postponement of votes of its voters: 34% for Emmanuel Macron, 30% for Marine Le Pen and 36% undecided, according to the Ipsos Sopra Steria survey.

It would be 27% for the outgoing president and 21% for Marine Le Pen, according to OpinionWay.  

Report of the votes of the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon © Graphic studio France Media World

If he admitted to having had "disagreements with Marine Le Pen", Éric Zemmour bluntly called on his voters on Sunday evening to vote for the candidate of the National Rally in the second round.

Because "Emmanuel Macron would do worse than his first term if he were re-elected".

Consequence or not, 85% of the voters of the far-right polemicist Éric Zemmour say they want to vote for the RN candidate, against only 9% for the outgoing president, according to the Ipsos Sopra Steria study.  

Report of the votes of Eric Zemmour's voters © Graphic studio France Media World

Scattered reports

As she had announced, Valérie Pécresse did not give voting instructions to her voters but announced who she intended to vote for.

"I will vote in conscience Emmanuel Macron to prevent the coming to power of Marine Le Pen and the chaos that would result from it", declared the candidate Les Républicains who suffered a heavy defeat by collecting only 4.8% of the vote.

As for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the carryover of votes from his voters remains very fragmented.

Thus, 45% of them intend to vote Emmanuel Macron, 28% for Marine Le Pen and 27% are still undecided, according to data from the Ipsos Sopra Steria institute.  

Report of the votes of the voters of Valérie Pécresse © Graphic studio France Media World

Without any ambiguity, Yannick Jadot called on his voters to deposit in the ballot box "an Emmanuel Macron ballot on April 24".

Will his voters follow the instructions of the MEP?

Yes, according to the Ipsos Sopra Steria survey.

Some 59% of them intend to vote Emmanuel Macron, against 12% for Marine Le Pen, % of them are still undecided.  

Report of the votes of Yannick Jadot's voters © Graphic studio France Media World

It will also be necessary to count on the carryover of votes from the other candidates well below the 5% mark.

Fabien Roussel (2.28%) and Anne Hidalgo (1.74%) both called to vote Emmanuel Macron in the second round while Jean Lassalle (3.13%), Philippe Poutou (0.77%) and Nathalie Arthaud (0.56%) did not wish to give voting instructions.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, candidate of France Debout, called to "block" Emmanuel Macron, specifying that he will vote for Marine Le Pen. 

A lot of uncertainty

Will voters follow their candidate's recommendations?

"The voting instructions no longer work at all," said Chloé Morin, expert at the Jean Jaurès Foundation in an interview with Le Parisien dated April 11.

"Despite everything, what the political leaders say carries weight," nuance Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. 

One thing is certain.

The second round vote is very uncertain.

To the question: "Is your choice of vote final or can it still change?", asked by the Ipsos pollsters, it turns out that it is only "final at 88% for the all voters surveyed, while 12% ensure that "they can still change their minds".

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