In 2017, at the end of the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron qualified for the second round against Marine Le Pen with a small lead, 24% against 21%.

This time, the two candidates have nearly six points difference.

However, the gap between the two candidates in the second round promises to be tighter than five years ago: according to polls carried out on Sunday, voting intentions fluctuate between 51% and 54% for Emmanuel Macron, against 46% for 49% for its far-right rival.

In question, in particular, a larger reserve of votes for the candidate of the National Rally.

"The voice reserves available to Emmanuel Macron are very low", explains Martial Foucault, director of Ceviprof, on France 24 Monday April 11.

"The scores of the Socialist Party (1.74%) and the Republicans (4.78%) show that some of their voters have already voted 'useful'. And the most 'Macron-compatible' among them have therefore already given their vote to the outgoing president."  

And if Emmanuel Macron will certainly be able to count on the voters of Yannick Jadot (4.63%) and Fabien Roussel (2.28%), after the two candidates called for blocking the far right, "this represents , in total, very few votes", estimates the political scientist.

Conversely, Marine Le Pen should benefit in the second round from a large carryover of the votes of the 7% of voters of her far-right rival Éric Zemmour and the 2% of sovereigntist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who both indicated that they would vote for her on April 24. 

03:03

Convincing on the left and resisting the "anti-Macron" vote

For Emmanuel Macron, the whole challenge of this between-two-rounds is therefore to convince the 22% of voters who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

“Today, even if the rebellious candidate called not to give a single vote to the far right, the various forecasts give a third of these votes to Emmanuel Macron, a third to Marine Le Pen and a third to the abstention", notes Martial Foucault.

"The role of Jean-Luc Mélenchon for the next fortnight will therefore be decisive."

"To arrive at the top of the first round, Emmanuel Macron captured the electorate on the right. He must now choose whether he wants to renounce in part some of his proposals - I am thinking of the pension reform - or not to capture the electorate. of Jean-Luc Mélenchon", analyzes for his part on France 24, Jérémie Peltier, director of studies at the Jean Jaurès Foundation. 

Another important reserve of voices: the 26% of abstentionists, who will have to decide to go to the polls.

Sunday evening, the president-candidate thus openly thanked Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot and Fabien Roussel who called to vote for him.

And he went further, ensuring "to reach out to all those who want to work for France", and called to found, beyond "differences", "a great political movement of unity and action".

The seduction operation on the left, however, promises to be difficult for the outgoing president.

"Emmanuel Macron risks being trapped in the situation he himself created," said Martial Foucault. 

"For five years, he wanted to make Marine Le Pen his main rival, by having a very right-wing policy. This earned him constant criticism from the rebellious camp and it will be difficult to change their minds in a fortnight. “, continues the political scientist.

"But above all, resentment, social and political anger have accumulated. And faced with this situation, it is possible that the republican front which could give him victory does not emerge, and that, conversely, place a coalition based on resentment against him."

Hence the strategy of the National Rally (RN) for this between-two rounds: to encourage voters to vote "against Macron".

"The second round is going to be the anti-Macron" and we must not "reduce the reservoir of votes to LR or Éric Zemmour", thus assured the interim president of the RN, Jordan Bardella. 

On Sunday, Marine Le Pen did not have a word for her far-right rival.

On the other hand, she applied herself to presenting herself as the president "of all French people", inviting "all those who did not vote" for Emmanuel Macron to "join" her for the "great alternation of which (la) France has need".

07:15

Discrediting the far right

At the same time, Emmanuel Macron is betting on another strategy: constantly reminding us that victory is not won and discrediting his rival's program as much as possible.

"Nothing is settled", he thus hammered several times during this speech.

"I want to convince in the days to come that our project responds much more solidly than that of the far right to the fears and challenges of the times (...). A France that prevents Muslims or Jews from eating as prescribed their religion is not us”, thus advanced the president Sunday evening.

“In this first round, Marine Le Pen has won a bet: that of credibility. On certain themes, in particular purchasing power, surveys show that she is now considered the most credible candidate just behind Emmanuel Macron. It's something new", underlines on France 24 Benjamin Morel, political scientist at the University of Paris Panthéon-Assas.

"Emmanuel Macron's whole game will therefore also consist of sending her back to the camp of demonization and pinning her on this question of credibility", continues the political scientist. 

Being "in touch"

In an attempt to convince, after a campaign in the first round of which he was the great absentee, the president-candidate has also already announced several trips in the next two weeks.

This Monday, he goes to Lepenist land, to Denain, in the North.

On Tuesday, he will go to the Grand Est, to Mulhouse and Strasbourg, a regional capital where more than a third of voters voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

According to those around him, a big meeting in Marseille is also planned for Saturday. 

"There were constraints", assured Emmanuel Macron on Sunday evening, citing the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and "equality of speaking time between the candidates", "but you will see that I will be morning noon, and evening to convince and in contact", he assured. 

For her part, Marine Le Pen has planned to meet her executives in Paris on Monday to take stock of the strategy for the second round.

Before holding a press conference on Tuesday on "democracy" and the exercise of power".

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