One of the strategic changes that Putin is provoking in Europe is a change of opinion in a country that itself has already waged a winter war against Moscow: Finland and neighboring Sweden are increasingly considering joining NATO.
Things are a little different here than in the case of Ukraine, because as EU members the two countries are already part of the Western camp, even with a mutual assistance clause.
They maintain close ties with NATO, and admission to the alliance would above all bring them an American guarantee of protection.
Risks in the accession phase
The threats that are being heard again from the Kremlin show that it would not be without risk if the alliance were to extend its border with Russia by more than 1,000 kilometers.
The accession phase could be particularly difficult because Putin could try to create an obstacle by encroaching on territory;
that was his model in Georgia and Ukraine.
But such objections will not easily be heard in Allianz today.
The bitter lesson of February 24 is that refusing a country to join NATO does not secure peace.
Even the Federal President seems to have understood this, promising the Finns German support, whatever they decide.
For Steinmeier, this is a remarkable personal turning point.