Occupied Jerusalem -
The resignation of Knesset Member (Israeli Parliament) Idit Suleiman from the Yamina party, from the presidency and membership of the government coalition bloc, has brought to the fore the governance crisis that has afflicted Israel since March 2019, the state of chaos and confusion experienced by Jewish parties, and the state of polarization in the scene. after the ouster of Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu from the premiership.
As a result of the ideological, political, social and religious conflicts between the components of the government coalition headed by Naftali Bennett and his partner Yair Lapid, which was formed for the political goal of removing Netanyahu from the prime minister’s seat, the Israeli political arena returns to the roots of the crisis of governance that has continued since 2019.
Returning to the first square of the roots of the crisis, which is represented in the fragility of the camps and the mismatch between allies and partners, it is unlikely that the opportunity will be given to Lapid, head of the “There is a Future” party, to form a new government within the current Knesset term, even though he is the largest component in the current coalition.
On the other hand, the head of the "Blue and White" coalition, Benny Gantz, is proposing the formation of a new government in the Knesset, provided that he be its head, even in the context of a rotation agreement, a scenario he tried in the past with Netanyahu, who refrained from implementing the rotation agreement.
Bennett's government loses a majority in the Knesset after a female MP withdrew from the ruling coalition... Will the Bennett government fall?
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— Quds News Network (@qudsn) April 6, 2022
new elections
Accordingly, Edit’s resignation and the gradual crack in Bennett’s government brings the Israeli public back to the scenario of holding new parliamentary elections, which will be the fifth in 3 years, after Netanyahu failed to form a government after 4 electoral rounds, and the instability of what was described as the “government of change” headed by Bennett-Lapid. .
In the face of partisan complications and intertwining between camps, it is not certain that any new elections - with Netanyahu's participation in the leadership of the Likud party - will result in a sort that would allow the formation of a new government with a majority, and it is certain that it will not restore the anti-Netanyahu "change bloc" to power, because it failed. To be the political, economic and social alternative to Netanyahu's rule.
The resignation of the Knesset member reflected the depth of the political crisis between the camps and currents, and the lack of unity of the right-wing camp led by Netanyahu, who is being tried in court on corruption cases, but he is still seeking to dismantle the Bennett government and return to power.
The resignation is of great importance because the Bennett government coalition has lost the majority in the Knesset, as it is now supported by 60 members, compared to 60 in the opposition forces. Members of the Knesset from the right and Haredi parties in the government.
The resignation of Idit and Shikli's opposition to the prime minister - who heads the "Yamena" party represented in the Knesset with 7 seats - puts at a crossroads, as Idit and Shikli could form a new faction and split from Yamina, and they need two more members.
Noting that Bennett is striving to maintain the cohesion of his party, which will be reduced to 5 Knesset members in the event of a coalition of Edit and Shikli.
Difficulties and challenges
As a result of losing the majority in Parliament, the Bennett government will not be able to present any bills and pass in the Knesset, knowing that in March 2023 the Bennett government will be required to vote on the general budget, which makes it likely that the government will continue until the mentioned date.
The resignation of the Knesset member heralds the beginning of the end of the Bennett-Lapid government, but the former will take advantage of the Knesset's spring break in order to arrange his internal papers in the party and persuade Idit to return to the coalition, or perhaps seek to make changes to the composition of the government coalition.
Eidt's resignation does not leave many options or room for maneuver in front of the government coalition, which is breathing its last breath and is on the way to disintegration, knowing that toppling the government requires the support of at least 61 Knesset members, and forming a new government requires the support of 61 members.
The scenario of the Knesset withholding confidence in and overthrowing the Bennett government, and heading for new elections, remains the most likely, given that the other scenarios are not clear.
The scenario of the Knesset withholding confidence in and overthrowing the Bennett government, and heading for new elections, remains the most likely, since the other scenarios are not clear and carry many complications.
The scenario of Netanyahu remaining in the leadership of the Likud party, and the formation of a government headed by him in the event that the Bennett government is toppled, is a complex and difficult matter, due to the dispute over the person accused of corruption in the courts.
The scenario of the current government remaining in its mandate, until the approval of the draft general budget in March 2023, is also taken into account.
But without the ability to legislate laws and take fateful and important decisions in all areas (except for the state of emergency and war), which means a return to political stagnation, and stagnation in the work of the government and the Knesset.
Divisions and alliances
What enhances the possibility of returning to the governmental and parliamentary political stalemate, until new elections are held, is the consensus that it is impossible for one of the parties of the right-wing bloc in the opposition to join the Netanyahu government, while Netanyahu will continue his attempts to split the right-wing parties in the Bennett government.
What makes it difficult for Netanyahu to form an alternative government and guarantee a majority of 61 deputies is the fact that the opposition bloc he leads includes 54 deputies, and he needs the defection of 7 members from one of the right and center parties participating in Bennett's government coalition.
Netanyahu is counting on splits in the "New Hope" party headed by Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who dissented from Likud, the "There is a Future" party headed by Lapid, and the "Blue and White" alliance headed by Gantz, along with the "Yamina" party headed by Bennett.