Security experts explain to Al Jazeera Net how the "CIA" supports the Ukrainian forces

WASHINGTON -

In September 1949, two Ukrainian agents working for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) landed near Lviv, Ukraine, when it was part of the former Soviet Union.

The two agents were at the head of a secret operation aimed at communicating with the rebels against the annexation of Ukraine to the Soviet Union, and their number was estimated in the tens of thousands.

Soviet intelligence infiltrated the operation, and at least three-quarters of the CIA operatives disappeared.

By the mid-1950s, Moscow had completely suppressed the Ukrainian rebellion after it had displaced and killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.

American historians considered the intervention of the "CIA" at the time "ominous and tragic", according to an internal review conducted by the agency, which was recently reported by the New York Times.

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching its sixth week, some commentators are recalling the old intelligence fiasco, while others are getting enthusiastic about the CIA's success in its Ukraine role this time around.

Al Jazeera Net polled the opinions of 3 military and intelligence experts about the agency's role in the ongoing battles inside Ukrainian territory, and their vision was as follows:

David de Roche says that the role of the CIA was great before the Russian attack, but it has become limited after it (social networking sites)

Currently.. the role is limited

David de Roche, a professor of security studies at the National Defense University of the Pentagon, and a former official with NATO and the US Department of Defense, says that the American and European intelligence presence inside Ukraine before the Russian attack was large and effective to a good degree, and the “CIA” succeeded in determining the locations and intentions of Russian forces and plans its movements.

According to de Roche, the agency succeeded in issuing timely notifications of possible Russian moves.

But at the same time, the intelligence of America and the rest of the NATO countries have failed to identify the somewhat "low state" of the Russian armed forces, especially the problems they suffer from such as low morale, logistics and weak leadership of the main forces.

These problems are traditional in nature. Intelligence agencies are generally good at identifying factors that can be measured objectively, but they perform poorly in measuring what is intangible such as morale.

Currently, de Roche believes that the main role played by US intelligence inside Ukraine has become limited, and focuses on sharing their intelligence assessments with the Ukrainian side.

The CIA also provides what it obtains through its listening devices on the movements and conversations of Russian forces.

This would allow the Ukrainians to change their troop deployment areas in areas close to Russian forces, adjusting their positions as necessary.

It may also provide a large amount of tactical intelligence about precise locations of Russian tanks, and then be targeted causing greater damage to Russian forces.

decisive intervention

Jeffrey Rogge, an assistant professor in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at the Citadel Military Academy in South Carolina, believes that US intelligence work is one reason Ukraine has been able to resist Russia.

According to Rogg, the agency has invested over the years in preparing the Ukrainians for this fight, but even with that training and with all the weapons the United States and other countries are sending to Ukraine, the Ukrainians have not been nearly as effective without continued intelligence support.

Reports were that the United States was providing crucial intelligence, such as signals and image intelligence, that allowed the Ukrainians to strike the Russians when they were on the weaker side.

Rogge says that Russia has lost a large number of generals, but this is not just luck or skill on the part of the Ukrainians, "I think that American intelligence helped locate and target senior Russian army officers."

But the security expert points out the risks to the role of US intelligence in Ukraine, and says, "It is no secret that the United States is arming Ukraine to kill the Russians, but it is almost certain that Russia will seize every possible opportunity to retaliate. And if Washington helps kill Russian generals, America's generals may find themselves against Russia.

Two Russian soldiers inspect a Ukrainian army bunker in the village of Trukhizbinka in Lugansk region (European)

Strengthening the Ukrainian resistance

In the opinion of Joseph Visnakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, American estimates of the potential of Russian military power before the invasion of Ukraine were largely accurate, and American intelligence agencies, especially Defense Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency, formed a relatively accurate picture of the potential of Russian military power, in terms of its strength. physical.

In addition to tangible strength, US intelligence has interpreted Russian intentions regarding Ukraine with remarkable accuracy, and it has played a central role since the invasion of Ukraine.

The expert says that the Ukrainian special forces are primarily responsible for the setbacks that the Russian army has suffered over the past few weeks;

It was able to repel a large-scale Russian attack by helicopters on the Antonov airport in Hostomil, northwest of Kyiv.

To counter this resistance, the Russians sent the 11th and 31st Air Attack Brigades of the National Guard, but they failed to secure the airport.

In addition, he says, the CIA's deep knowledge of the military capabilities of Russian forces has allowed Washington and its NATO allies to provide the Ukrainians with the types of weapons needed to combat advanced Russian armored units, especially in an urban warfare environment and suburban areas.

The American expert believes that weapons such as portable Javelin missiles (surface-to-air), or anti-tank missiles, have proven effective in preventing Russian forces from encircling most of the major Ukrainian cities.

The intelligence operation to supply the Ukrainians with such weapons was very successful, which prompted the Western allies to increase their production.