Just a few weeks ago, progressive change in Chile seemed unstoppable.

In the presidential election at the end of last year, the leftist Gabriel Boric clearly prevailed in the runoff.

In the previous two years, pressure from the streets had brought the country's political elite to its knees.

In a vote on the drafting of a new constitution in 2020, the proponents clearly prevailed.

But what is still missing is the new constitution itself. One of the central demands of the social uprising that broke out in the country in 2019 was the abandonment of the current basic right, which dates back to the time of the military dictatorship and forms the basis for the subsidiary state in Chile.

But it is possible that the majority of Chileans do not want any major upheaval.

Tjerk Bruhwiller

Correspondent for Latin America based in São Paulo.

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At least that's what two new polls asking Chileans whether they would accept or reject a new constitution suggest.

A constitutional convention elected last year is to present the new Basic Law by July.

Chileans will vote on it later in the year.

So far, an assumption was out of the question.

In the latest surveys, however, a majority of respondents spoke out against it for the first time.

A survey by the opinion research institute Cadem shows that 46 percent of those questioned would currently vote against a new constitution.

That is 13 percentage points more than at the end of January.

Support has fallen from 56 percent to 40 percent over the same period.

A second survey by Activa points in the same direction.

Almost 36 percent of those surveyed say they reject the new constitution, while 32 percent are in favor of it.

People's representatives in the constitutional convention mainly on the left

The polls frightened Boric's government.

The 36-year-old president, a lawyer, former MP and former student leader, embodies the desire for change that is particularly strong among young Chileans.

On Tuesday, he commented on the polls, which he called "worrying" and a "wake-up call" for everyone who trusted the process and believed it was necessary.

“We are in an inaugural process where, for the first time in our history, we are discussing what our core charter will look like, in a democratic and equitable manner with the participation of indigenous peoples,” he said.

In the referendum on whether Chile should have a new constitution in 2020, more than three quarters of voters were in favour.

The subsequent election of the Constituent Assembly turned into a debacle for the traditional political forces, especially for the conservative camp.

Three quarters of the people's representatives in the constitutional convention are leftists, independent activists, representatives of social movements and indigenous peoples.

The right has just 38 of the 155 votes, not even the third needed to block constitutional articles and create more balance.

Counter-movement is formed

In conservative circles, in business and also among many intellectuals, there is a fear that the new constitution could be too activist and go too far.

Some seventy personalities from politics, business and former ministers of the former centre-left governments have therefore joined forces in a loose alliance to warn against a "refoundation" of Chile "from scratch".

They are not opposed to a new constitution, but they see the danger that the constitutional convention will "lead the country to a dead end".

The problem is that most Chileans know very little about the process and it remains largely unclear what the new constitution will actually look like.

Two weeks ago, the deadline for submitting the text was pushed back by three months to the beginning of July.

Voters' loss of confidence in the constitutional process, as well as skepticism about controversial propositions on property rights, the structure of Congress or pension funds, now reflected in the latest polls, has prompted discussions about the possibility of a "third way" voting encouraged by the constitution.

Instead of acceptance or rejection, the Chileans should also be given the option of saying "No, but".

A corresponding vote could then be implemented as a mandate for a fundamental reform of the existing constitution, which would be subject to Congress where the political balance of power is more balanced.

Verfassungsrechtler halten diese Möglichkeit für schwer umsetzbar, zumal die Idee sehr spät kommt. Die Befürworter einer neuen Verfassung verurteilen den Vorschlag als eine Taktik, um den Prozess zu verzögern oder aufzuhalten. Letzteres würde allerdings auf eine noch deutlichere Art und Weise geschehen, wenn eine Mehrheit der Chilenen die neue Verfassung in der Volksabstimmung abschmetterte. Selbst eine knappe Annahme der neuen Verfassung wäre nach Ansicht vieler Beobachter eine schlechte Voraussetzung für ein neues Grundrecht, das Jahrzehnte überdauern soll.