• Often presented as a land of the right, Alsace had allowed Jean-Marie Le Pen then Marine Le Pen to finish at the top of the first rounds of the presidential elections 2002 and 2017.

  • And this year then?

    "Alsace should vote for Le Pen and the rest of the votes will go to the right," said a political scientist.

  • “It's really since 1994 that the FN has gained importance here.

    Today, if we take all the elections, the RN has become the first party in terms of votes in Alsace”, analyzes Philippe Breton again.

Nearly 50,000 people in the streets of Strasbourg while Jean-Marie Le Pen was in a meeting at the Palais de la Musique et des Congrès in 1997;

from 8,000 to 10,000 in the same places after the famous first round of the 2002 presidential election…

Can these scenes of mobilization against the rise of the Rassemblement (ex-Front) National (RN) happen again next week in the Alsatian capital?

This Sunday's vote will be a decisive indicator.

Although in 2017, when Marine Le Pen passed easily in the second round of the queen election, only a few dozen people pounded the pavement on Place Kléber...

“It is difficult to have precise forecasts on this 1st round in the current context”, first estimates local political scientist Philippe Breton.

Before quickly getting wet: “Alsace should vote Le Pen and the rest of the votes will go to the right”.

An analysis which is based, in particular, on the results of the far-right party for more than twenty years in the region.

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“It's really since 1994 that the FN has gained importance here.

Today, if we take all the elections, the RN has become the leading party in terms of votes in Alsace, ”continues the professor emeritus at the University of Strasbourg.

Some figures are very telling on this subject: in 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen had signed his best score in the 1st round… in the Haut and Bas-Rhin.

He won 23.44% of the votes cast (against 16.86% nationally).

In 2017, his daughter had imitated him by also finishing in the lead at the same stage in Alsace (25.69%, against 21.30% in France).

Why such a trend in a region traditionally marked on the right?

Even rather centrist when we see the almost unequaled scores of François Bayrou in 2002 (10.78%), 2007 (21.41%) and 2012 (11.71%)?

Philippe Breton explains this gradual shift by several phenomena.

“The more participants there are, the higher the result of the RN will be”

“In the region, the left and the right are rather in the center because there has been a lot of violence here in the past.

People don't really have a taste for political excesses.

But what changed the situation was the ability of the FN to seek the popular vote, sensitive to the question of purchasing power.

I would add that this vote is often synonymous with opposition, protest.

And we have noticed that it often takes place in peri-urban areas, where people feel discriminated against by the arrogant metropolis.

The suburban fabric is very strong in Alsace.

»

Sunday's result will also depend on abstention.

A rate where the region is often a little below the national average.

If voters turn out en masse, will Marine Le Pen be as successful?

"The more participants there are, the higher the result of the RN will be", replies the political scientist, aware of being there against the current.

“I know that we often hear the opposite but when we look precisely at the figures by municipality, abstention is unfavorable to the RN.

»

Unless Eric Zemmour comes and shakes it all up… “It will be an interesting indicator to see if this far-right vote has become more radical or not”, concludes Philippe Breton.

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