(International Observation) Who can win the first round of voting in the final sprint of the French presidential election?
China News Agency, Paris, April 4th: Who can win the first round of voting in the final sprint of the French presidential election?
China News Agency reporter Li Yang
The French presidential campaign has now entered the final sprint, with only a week left until the first round of voting in the presidential election on April 10.
According to the list of candidates for the 2022 presidential election announced by the French Constitutional Council, a total of 12 candidates are participating in the election campaign.
Among them, who will win the first round of voting?
FILE PHOTO: French President Emmanuel Macron.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang
Macron aims to secure victory
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking re-election, intends to secure a victory.
He still leads all other candidates in the polls, meaning Macron is likely to be one of the winners in the first round of voting.
But the gap between him and his main rival, Marine Le Pen, the far-right National League candidate in France, is narrowing.
In the past two weeks, Macron's lead over Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting has slipped from 15 points to less than 7 points, polling data showed.
Macron's approval rating in the first round of voting was 28.5%, while Marine Le Pen's approval rating was 22%.
Macron held a large campaign rally on the 2nd, emphasizing that his supporters must mobilize to win the election.
He described the election as "a contest between progress and retreat", targeting far-right "extremism" and pointing out the danger that "extremism" brought to French society, criticizing Marine Le Pen and others without naming names. Far-right candidate Zemur.
Compared with other candidates such as Marine Le Pen, Macron has campaigned very little.
He only officially announced his re-election bid in early March, and has devoted a lot of his time and energy to the Ukraine crisis.
He also declined to participate in debates with other candidates ahead of the first round of voting.
Macron has recently repeatedly emphasized to the public the main achievements he has achieved during his tenure in office, especially reducing unemployment and stabilizing economic growth.
He recently made it clear that he will continue to push for reform of the retirement system and delay the legal retirement age to 65, which is regarded by some political analysts as a "courageous decision", but also has political risks to a certain extent.
The reform of the retirement system is still a controversial issue in French society.
On April 2, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron held a large-scale campaign rally in Nanterre, a suburb of Paris, with the intention of strengthening interaction with voters, further boosting the election, and preparing for re-election.
Organizers said more than 30,000 people attended the rally.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang
far-right and far-left contenders
The French presidential candidates currently ranked second and third in the first round of French presidential election polls are the far-right party "National League" candidate Marine Le Pen and the far-left party "Unyielding France" candidate Melenchon (15.5% approval rating).
They will be Macron's main rivals, all vying to make it to the second round of voting.
Marine Le Pen, 53, came second with 21.3 percent of the vote in the first round of the 2017 French presidential election, joining Macron, who was leading with 24 percent of the vote at the time. Tickets; Macron won the election as president with 66.1% of the vote in the second round of voting (Le Pen won 33.9%).
Marine Le Pen is trying to distance herself from another far-right candidate, the more radical Zemour, in terms of rhetoric in the presidential election.
Her views on immigration remain generally tough, calling for further tightening of immigration policies; she has made multiple claims to strengthen policing and personal safety; she also said the retirement age should not be delayed.
Melenchon, 70, is the oldest candidate in the election. He has participated in multiple presidential elections before and is a political veteran.
In the 2017 presidential election, he was fourth with 19.6 percent of the first-round vote.
Melenchon's campaign platform mainly focuses on improving the living standards and welfare of the middle and low-level people, including raising the minimum wage and limiting the prices of basic daily necessities.
Melenchon not only opposed the postponement of the retirement age, but also further proposed that the legal retirement age should be raised to 60 years old.
Melenchon's related propositions have been recognized by many left-wing voters, and he is currently the front-runner among many candidates from the left-wing camp.
Where are the traditional left and right parties heading?
The French Socialist Party and the Republican Party, as traditional left-wing and right-wing parties respectively, once had a huge influence in French politics.
In this presidential election, the presidential candidate supported by the Socialist Party is Paris Mayor Hidalgo, and the presidential candidate launched by the Republican Party is the chairman of the Paris Regional Council, Pecques.
Neither Hidalgo nor Pecres currently ranks high in approval ratings.
Pecres' first-round vote fell from third to fifth, and now stands at 8.5 percent; Hidalgo's approval rating is currently only around 1.5 to 2 percent.
In fact, in the 2017 presidential election, neither the Socialist Party nor the Republican presidential candidates failed to make it to the second round of voting.
The then Republican presidential candidate, former French Prime Minister Fillon Champ, ranked third in the first round of voting with 20% of the vote.
At the time, the Socialist candidate Amon won only 6.4% of the vote, far behind Mélenchon.
The electoral issues faced by Hidalgo and Pecques may be similar. They are both political in Paris and have high popularity in the Paris region, but their influence is not enough nationwide, and their influence in some remote provinces is even lower; and Compared with the platforms of the far-left and far-right candidates, the voices of the traditional left and right camps have been impacted.
If the situation is not reversed in the coming week, it will be difficult for candidates from traditional centre-left and right-wing parties to emerge as first-round winners.
The current French presidential election is scheduled to hold the first round of voting on April 10, and the second round of voting is scheduled to be held on April 24.
If no one obtains an absolute majority in the first round of voting, a second round of voting will be held, and one of the top two candidates who have won the first round of voting will be elected as president.
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