Cairo -
The Egyptian government's warning about approaching the limit of water scarcity came after a high-level meeting between Cairo and Khartoum officials, to raise alarm bells and anxiety in light of the continuing crisis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt sees as a threat to its national security and a threat to its water future.
A political expert specializing in African affairs, who spoke to Al Jazeera Net, valued what he described as "raising the discourse of harm in the face of Ethiopian harm," which facilitates for Egypt any preventive measures at the time it deems appropriate, he said.
And the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, announced last Saturday that Egypt is approaching the limit of water scarcity, warning in a speech directed abroad - through a virtual meeting within the activities of the “Climate Week in the Middle East and North Africa” conference - of the consequences for the region.
This came after a high-level Egyptian-Sudanese meeting last Wednesday, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met with the Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and among the issues they discussed was the issue of the Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is building on the Nile River and threatening the historical water share of the two countries.
In the midst of tripartite negotiations that have been frozen for a while, Egypt and Sudan are insisting on first reaching a tripartite agreement on filling and operating the dam to ensure the continued flow of their annual share of the Nile waters. However, Ethiopia rejects this, and affirms that its dam, which it started building about a decade ago, does not aim to harm anyone.
water poverty
Specialists go to define water scarcity as “the inability of fresh water resources to meet the demand for water,” but Egypt is still in the stage of water poverty, according to official data.
The United Nations estimated the water poverty line at 1,000 cubic meters annually per person, while official figures issued by the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation revealed that the per capita share in Egypt does not exceed 560 cubic meters only, amid indicators that it will reach 366 meters by 2050.
According to official statistics published by the official website of the Egyptian Information Service (a government agency), Egypt's water resources are estimated at about 60 billion cubic meters annually of water, most of which comes from the waters of the Nile River, in addition to very limited amounts of rainwater and deep groundwater in deserts.
On the other hand, the total water needs in Egypt amount to about 114 billion cubic meters annually, with a deficit of 54 billion cubic meters annually. This gap is filled by reusing water and importing agricultural crops equivalent to about 34 billion cubic meters annually. According to official data.
The Egyptian president announced earlier this year that Egypt has entered the stage of water poverty, and that the water coming from Ethiopia represents only 10% of the country's needs.
Raising the letter of damage
In this context, Khairy Omar, a professor of political science at the Turkish University of Sakarya and a specialist in African affairs, appreciates the Egyptian approach in promoting what he described as a "discourse of harm" by using the water scarcity paper after the Ethiopian method of harming Egypt and Sudan continued, as he put it.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Omar adds that the official talk about Egypt's approaching water scarcity has two effects;
One is external and the other is internal, as it contributes to undermining Ethiopia’s allegations against Egypt, including Cairo’s possession of salt water sources next to fresh water and not being affected by filling the dam, and therefore it is a useful discourse to confront Ethiopia before the international community in light of Ethiopian intransigence, as it proves the danger of post-water poverty. , and then works not to prejudice the water share.
The academic specializing in African affairs explains that this official Egyptian discourse is also intended for the interior, in terms of raising awareness under the influence of fear in order to rationalize the use of water, and work to search for new sources and reduce waste, which appeared in many official procedures, including lining canals and drains.
The Egyptian academic believes that his country’s position is close to his Sudanese counterpart since November 2020, especially the agreement to raise the discourse of damage after the Egyptian side monitored a contradictory discourse on the Sudanese side, as the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation tended to reduce the risks of the dam, but then the positions became Sudan is more coordinated with Egypt.
Khairy Omar considered that this leads to the unity of the situation in the current confrontation, after Ethiopia abandoned its goodwill and adhered to the catastrophic harm to the water interests of Egypt and Sudan, according to him, which facilitates any preventive measure that enhances the necessary measures to protect Egyptian interests in a timely manner.
worrying repercussions
At the end of March 2021, the Egyptian president said, "We do not threaten anyone, but no one can take a drop of water from Egypt, otherwise the region will witness a state of instability that no one imagines."
Al-Sisi pointed out that he had never spoken in this tone, and that he was not threatening, but "compromising Egypt's waters is a red line... and whoever wants to try, let him try," he said.
In April 2021, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that his country had entered the stage of severe water poverty, and that it was working to harness its resources to benefit from every drop of water.
The Egyptian authorities will not give up any drop of water from their share of the Nile River, in accordance with the 1959 agreement.
In a previous interview with Al-Jazeera, the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, confirmed that Cairo had developed strategic plans to confront it under the threat of water poverty, including the establishment of the largest water treatment plants in the world.
The minister suggested catastrophic repercussions for any shortage of Egypt’s share of the Nile waters, stressing that this might push the affected poor either to join extremist groups, or to illegal immigration to Europe, according to his opinion.
In the same context, Nader Nour El-Din, professor of water resources at Cairo University and a water expert, confirmed that;
Egypt is under the threat of water poverty and is heading towards water scarcity, which, according to him, is reflected in the agricultural sector strongly in light of the distribution of water to other sectors that have priority, including drinking water, which widens the food gap and increases import rates with high costs and increases desalination investments. water, which will impose more burdens on the Egyptian state budget, according to press statements.
In a recent study revealed by the American University in Cairo, "Water scarcity has become one of the most pressing food security issues in the countries of the Near East and North Africa, especially in Egypt."
The study, which was conducted by the university in cooperation with prominent researchers, justified the crisis by saying that the number of Egyptians is constantly increasing and they depend mainly on a fixed and specific source of fresh water, which is the Nile River.
The study confirmed that the impact of water scarcity on agricultural production and on food availability;
It is an urgent issue that must be addressed, stressing the importance of involving local farmers to cope with the problem of water scarcity, in order to arrive at realistic solutions.
And in August 2021, according to a new study by researchers from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
Egypt will import more water than the Nile provides if no changes are made.
The research, which was published in the journal Nature Communications, also provides recommendations on ways in which Egypt can conserve and benefit from water supplies for a more sustainable future.