• Less than a week before the first round of the presidential election, purchasing power has emerged as the primary concern of the French.

  • The candidates have all understood this and each defend their own vision of the defense of purchasing power.

  • Arguments that could be decisive for voters when slipping the name of one of them into the ballot box.

Like a feeling that everything costs more.

From shopping to refueling to gas and electricity bills, the French observe it: the more they open their wallets, the less they get for their money.

At the pump, the executive's boost of 18 cents per liter lightens the bill a little, as does the energy check, which arrived in the mailboxes of the most modest households.

But for many households, the impact of inflation on their purchasing power is too heavy.

A problem that has emerged at the top of the concerns of the French and which, less than a week before the first round of the presidential election, could influence the choice of the name of the candidate to slip into the ballot box.

For the “end of month” variable, Mélenchon and Le Pen advantage

While inflation has gained ground since the start of the 2021 school year, the question of purchasing power has been at the heart of French concerns in recent weeks, particularly under the effect of the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, with a surge in the prices of energy and grain.

“The latest polls show it, the French express clearly today that purchasing power is the point that will count the most in their choice of vote, observes Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe institute.

The gap with their other concerns – health and safety and pensions – is very marked.

This high level is measured in all the electorates on the left as on the right, with the exception of Eric Zemmour, who emphasizes immigration.

And when you look at sociology,

Thus, “when we cross this variable “end of the month” with the voting intentions in the first round, we see that it offers an inverted mirror of two France.

On the one hand, there are currently 6 out of 10 French people who end their month peacefully, and 4 out of 10 who end the month under tension.

And we see that the voting intentions seem to draw a real divide between the first, rather inclined to vote for Macron at more than 35%, and the second, who are more than 30% to consider voting for Marine Le Pen ”.

The candidates have understood this well, "they all talk about purchasing power in this campaign: Marine Le Pen is immigration, purchasing power and security, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is power to purchase and social protection, and Yannick Jadot is purchasing power and ecology, lists the pollster and political scientist Jérôme Sainte-Marie, president of the Pollinvox institute.

But some candidates – Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen in particular – have taken the “lead” on the issue, they are more advanced, especially with regard to the purchasing power of the middle and working classes”.

Purchasing power seen by the right and the candidate president

But for part of the electorate, “purchasing power is not only “doing social work”, it is also bringing down the social state”, specifies the political scientist.

And there, the right has a card to play.

“Many French people aspire to pay less tax, it is a concern that we find in the electorate of Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour.

We then speak of the purchasing power of those who contribute the most to national solidarity, and who would like to pay less, he explains.

We thus see that Eric Zemmour, who insisted that he was only going to talk about immigration, also took up the issue of purchasing power to win votes.

But he speaks more specifically to the bosses to whom he promises lower charges, talks about increasing the net salary without touching the gross: all this,

these are measures for purchasing power.

In this line, several candidates also insist on the reduction of inheritance tax.

Here again, it is a question of telling the voters that we are not going to take their money”.

And the candidate president in all this?

"Emmanuel Macron is not disqualified in the field of purchasing power: in opinion polls, when we ask who is the most credible candidate on purchasing power, he and Marine Le Pen are almost on the same level level", notes Bernard Sananès.

Why ?

“Because the Head of State benefits from the “whatever the cost” effect deployed during the health crisis: his government has maintained the incomes of civil servants, retirees and private sector employees.

This is what means that for part of the middle class, its record in this area is not considered zero”.

However, even if the candidate president defends his record in favor of the purchasing power of the French, "as outgoing president, he can feed the resentment of those who are dissatisfied with their purchasing power", tempers Jérôme Sainte-Marie .

“Emmanuel Macron cannot pose as a candidate for purchasing power, where Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have succeeded in campaigning on this theme and capturing part of the electorate who is angry over this question of purchasing power”, abounds Bernard Sananès.

In practice, this gives "an elite bloc around Emmanuel Macron, and a popular bloc rather around Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon", summarizes Jérôme Sainte-Marie.

An "absolute classic" of election campaigns

However, if the question of purchasing power has recently imposed itself in the debate because of the inflationary outbreak, "in reality, it is an absolute classic that we find in each presidential election: from 1981 to 2017 , through the social fracture of 1995 and Sarkozy's "work more to earn more" in 2007, says Jérôme Sainte-Marie.

There has always been this background of material and social consideration in France, he recalls.

This is due to the fact that it is a great social country: half of the wealth is captured by the State, which redistributes it.

We thus have an executive who is at the head of a formidable social machinery, which makes it possible to prevent inequalities from increasing, and overall, it is a model that works.

A “sociological determinism of the vote”, according to the political scientist, which manifests itself clearly at the ballot box.

“Traditionally, civil servants tend to vote more to the left, not for a question of defended values, but also because public money is the source of their income, and therefore of their purchasing power, continues Jérôme Sainte- Married.

It is the same principle for retirees, who are the voters who mobilize the most, because their pensions and their financial security depend on the State.

For those whose political power is most in a position to improve or worsen purchasing power, the ballot paper is an essential means of defending it”.

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Presidential 2022: Smic, inflation, energy… What is the program of the candidates for purchasing power?

  • Presidential election 2022

  • purchasing power

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • Marine Le Pen

  • Jean-Luc Melenchon

  • Eric Zemmour

  • Valerie Pécresse

  • Yannick Jadot