Hungarians vote Sunday, April 3, after a tense campaign dominated by the war in Ukraine, with a slight advantage in the polls to Viktor Orban, in power for 12 years but threatened by a united opposition for the first time .

Fidesz, his party, is "given a winner in opinion polls", but the lead is narrow and the 58-year-old sovereignist leader has never faced such uncertainty, observes Bulcsu Hunyadi, analyst of the independent institute Political Capital.

"All options are on the table," he told AFP, deeming crucial "the ultimate mobilization" to convince the undecided, estimated at half a million in this country of 9.7 million inhabitants.

Viktor Orban summons his supporters this Friday in the town of Szekesfehervar, less than an hour's drive from Budapest.

This will be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to hammer home his speech of "peace and security", in the face of an opposition described as "dangerous", slogans which are displayed on huge electoral posters.

>> To read: Hungary: the war in Ukraine, the thorn in the side of Viktor Orban on the eve of the legislative elections

Peter Marki-Zay brings together his supporters on Saturday in the capital, just hours before the morning opening of the polls on Sunday.

The government, which refuses to deliver arms to Ukraine, "has succeeded in limiting the problem" of the Russian invasion of Ukraine "to a very simple question: should Hungary take part in the war or not?" , emphasizes Bulcsu Hunyadi.

"This message was much more effective than that of the opposition, which focused its criticism" on Viktor Orban's links with the Kremlin, he believes.

Especially since the two are not fighting on equal terms, according to him: "The propaganda machine of power has played a decisive role" by "distorting reality" and the words of the opposition, affirms the expert, from others also evoking a misguided electoral system to favor Fidesz.

The choice "of Europe, not of the East"

"The rules of the game are absolutely fair," replied government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs, interviewed by AFP, not kind to the opposition candidate, a puppet in his eyes "who has neither party nor group in Parliament".

Peter Marki-Zay, an atypical 49-year-old conservative mayor, has the difficult task of bringing together six heterogeneous parties behind him, whether they are right-wing, social democrats or ecologists.

United by their desire to bring down the "authoritarian" Orban, they call for an end to the "illiberal" transformation undertaken since 2010, at the cost of numerous attacks on democracy according to Brussels.

>> To see: Meeting the very heterogeneous opposition to Hungarian Viktor Orban

The choice "has never been so simple", insists Peter Marki-Zay.

We must do "that of Europe, not of the East", he says, in reference to the rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing operated by a Hungarian leader who is very critical of the EU.

Viktor Orban was also directly targeted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called on him in a video message to choose his side.

In return, the government accused the neighboring country of attempting to interfere in the elections.

"If isolation is the price to pay to protect Hungarian interests, the Prime Minister will not hesitate", comments Zoltan Kovacs, recalling "Hungary's dependence" on Russian oil and gas.

And to insist on the "experience" of Viktor Orban, "dean of the leaders in office of the EU".

Donald Trump's support for Viktor Orban

A man "tough, intelligent and who loves his country", advances for his part Donald Trump.

The former American president gave him his "fullest support" before the election.

If the spokesperson also praises "the economic success" of Hungary, the opposition did not fail to thrash the "irresponsible" policy of the authorities, against a backdrop of galloping inflation and the weakness of the forint, the currency local, against the euro.

During the campaign, the government multiplied measures to seduce voters, from fuel price caps to tax rebates.

>> To see: In Hungary, Viktor Orban plays the anti-LGBT card before the 2022 elections

“But all this largesse, which was supposed to be the secret weapon of power, has been erased” by the vertiginous rise in prices”, remarked this week to journalists Andras Biro-Nagy, of the Policy Solutions institute.

The elections, accompanied by a referendum linked to the anti-LGBT+ law which found itself totally eclipsed in the debates, will for the first time be monitored by more than 200 international observers amid fears of fraud.

With AFP

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