The blocking third..a mechanism copied by Iraqi parties from the Lebanese experience

BAGHDAD

- The term "blocking third" has become the most popular term in Iraqi political circles, as it raised questions about its adoption of a strategic choice by the coordinating framework forces, or is it a temporary option imposed by necessity and the new equation?

The coordinating framework forces headed by the leader of the "State of Law" Nuri al-Maliki and the "Al-Fateh Alliance" Hadi al-Amiri managed to gather more than a third of the Iraqi parliament, and disrupted the two sessions of electing the president of the republic twice in a row;

One last Saturday and the other on Wednesday.

In past electoral experiences, the dispute over the names of the candidates for the three presidencies (the president of the republic, the prime minister and the speaker of parliament) was the biggest obstacle to understanding between the parliamentary blocs. As for the last elections that took place last October, the dispute centers on the mechanism of nominating personalities for positions.

At a time when the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, insisted on a national majority government and formed the "Save the Homeland" coalition with the participation of the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the coordinating framework forces rejected that equation, and demanded that it be included in the next government, based on that "one-third" The disabled,” while deputies within the coordinating framework forces indicate that this option is temporary, but it is a pressure card, which will remain in the hand and be used when needed.

Al-Baldawi: The coordination framework adopted the option of the temporary guarantor third to put pressure on the other political parties (Al-Jazeera Net)

temporary option

Representative of the Coordination Framework Forces, Muhammad Al-Baldawi, believes that “the adoption of the option of the guarantor third is temporary, until the political parties respond to what we see as the best at the present time, but we have started to launch a broad initiative based on dialogue and understanding, ending the boycott of parliament sessions, and changing the data of the current situation.”

He pointed out that "the guarantor third made up of the national forces" may return in the future to rally and bloc if he feels that there are dangers to the political process.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Baldawi added that what happened in the boycott of one-third is a democratic activity, in accordance with the constitution and laws, and a use of the right to object to marginalization, exclusion, robbery of rights and lack of respect for the components, and indeed that activity bore fruit, and stopped the other party (save the country) from the path that He was going to him."

Regarding the similarity of this model with the experience of "Hezbollah" and the Lebanese "Amal" movement, Baldawi commented that "this experience is common, and is used in democratic countries, when one of the parties feels that there is a threat or danger, or an incorrect path."

In the midst of this shift in the Iraqi political scene, the Lebanese experience cannot be bypassed, when the opposition among members of Hezbollah and the Amal movement uses the so-called "blocking third" there to obstruct the sessions of the Council of Ministers or Parliament.

In the Lebanese parliamentary elections in 2018, Hezbollah and the Amal movement, in alliance with other blocs, succeeded in forming the March 8 forces by forming the blocking third - that is, more than a third of parliament - and it can disrupt the quorum of sessions that discuss and vote on important decisions.

The results of the 2021 Iraqi parliament elections (Al-Jazeera Net)

Threatening the political process

The coordinating framework forces (83 deputies) were unable to disrupt parliament sessions to elect the president of the republic, without the support of other blocs and parties, such as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (17 seats), the Azm Alliance (12 seats), and other small blocs such as Ishraqa Kanon (6 seats). seats) and others, which threatens this third of these blocs obtaining their desired government positions, or achieving their demands.

In this atmosphere, experts warn of the reflection of this model on the future of the political process in general, at a time when Iraq is suffering from economic and political crises that require serious work and clear and firm decisions, amid the presence of a bloc ready to disrupt any decision that does not serve its interests, or contradicts its vision.

In this context, expert writer and political analyst Ali Al-Baydar believes that “the damages of the blocking third model are serious at the political level, as it allows the minority to prevent the opinion of the majority, and thus all decisions or positions will be in the hands of the minority, and this is a fundamental error that must be confronted, as well as the possibility that It turns into a prevailing political norm, or a new incoming culture.”

Al-Baydar warned of negative paths that would result from adopting the blocking third (Al-Jazeera Net)

Al-Baydar warned - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - of negative paths that will result from the adoption of the blocking third. For example, it is possible in the future to establish anti-reform blocs, or to manufacture "lobbies", and pressure blocs, within the political process, and this means thwarting all attempts aimed at providing an arena reform in the short or even long term.

He warned that if the political forces continue to quarrel within the framework of the process of electing the president of the republic next week, popular trends will lose confidence in the political process and the elections.

However, a politician in the Sadrist movement (who refused to reveal his name) questioned the existence of the so-called "blocking third", pointing out that it is not possible to say that this third exists in the conventional sense, due to the different visions, trends, and ideas of the parties affiliated with the coordination framework.

He added that what happened after the parliamentary elections is the desire of the "Save the Homeland" coalition to form the government, and limit it to specific blocs, and this means clearly bearing responsibility, and after 4 years, it will be in the assessment schedule for the Iraqi street.

And on whether the "Save the Homeland" coalition will go to the opposition, if it fails to form the ministry, the Sadrist politician stressed that "the other blocs are unable to form the government, and they only own a third of Parliament temporarily, and this means the need to move forward with our project, and try to agree with some blocs." To soften positions, and to clearly inform them of the nature of our idea, led by the government.”

In Iraq, it is customary that power-sharing is based on the principle of consensus, and that the Shiite forces collectively form the largest bloc in parliament that must choose a prime minister, but al-Sadr wants to break from that tradition.

Legally, parliament only has until April 6 to elect a president, following a decision by the Federal Court, the country's highest judicial authority.

If this date is exceeded, there is nothing in the constitution that specifies how to deal with the issue, and therefore the possibilities remain open if the concerned parties do not reach an agreement.

And if the political blockage continues, it may resort to dissolving parliament and going to new early elections, and this needs a third of parliament members to present its dissolution before the House of Representatives, then the parliament itself will vote by half + one, and the parliament will dissolve itself.