The thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Riyadh, and their ten allies led by Moscow are likely to again increase the total level of production by some 400,000 barrels per day for the month of May, according to analysts.

“OPEC+ has surprised the markets several times during its monthly meetings, but the base scenario, for now, is that the status quo will be maintained,” predicts Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.

"The signals do not suggest any deviation" from the policy started in the spring of 2021, he continues.

The alliance's debates will begin with technical discussions within the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) at 1:00 p.m. (11:00 GMT) in Vienna, headquarters of the cartel, before the plenary meeting by videoconference.

Unprecedented American initiative

Expectations are however immense, oil having touched on March 7 its historic price records reached during the financial crisis of 2008, exceeding 130 dollars a barrel.

Since then, prices have fallen from their peaks, making "even less likely that OPEC + decides to increase its production more widely", comments Carsten Fritsch, analyst for Commerzbank.

Around 8:55 a.m. GMT (10:55 a.m. in Paris), Brent from the North Sea, the reference for black gold in Europe, lost 4.29% to 108.58 dollars a barrel, when the American WTI yielded 5.38% to 102 02 dollars, reacting to press reports on a possible massive and unprecedented use of American strategic reserves.

The White House is expected to announce a plan on Thursday to draw up to a million barrels a day from it and try to calm the market, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

"The news hits the market the same day that OPEC+ is due to discuss its production cap, and gives it a reason not to raise it," said Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at Seb.

For the alliance, which was created in 2016 with a view to regulating the market, the recent surge "is mainly due to geopolitical risks, and not to a real shortage of supply", recalls- he.

The war has raised fears of disruptions in Russian oil supplies and caused extreme volatility, with prices soaring on news of Western sanctions against Moscow, or falling on hopes of progress in peace negotiations.

Calls from everywhere

Calls from the international community have however multiplied, especially after the decision of the United States and Great Britain to stop importing oil from Russia, the second largest exporter of crude oil in the world behind Saudi Arabia.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck launched an “urgent appeal to exporting countries the next day to increase the level of production to relieve the market”.

Two oil platforms off California, October 6, 2021 Frederic J. BROWN AFP / Archives

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which had previously described the cartel's wait-and-see decisions as "disappointing", also urged OPEC+ to be "on the safe side".

Same message from the side of the G7 countries, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went to Riyadh to try to convince the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

But nothing helps: the Gulf countries are currently resisting Western demands.

The OPEC+ alliance, far from being destabilized by the conflict, appears more solid than ever.

It is "here to stay", Emirati Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Monday, determined not to let "politics" undermine the organization.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman on Tuesday reiterated his commitment to OPEC+, arguing that if the agreement "did not exist, we could not have stability in the energy market" and "the price volatility would be even worse."

If he defended the apolitical "culture" of OPEC+, according to many experts, a Saudi intervention in the markets would be perceived as a betrayal of Russia, preventing it from using its hydrocarbon exports to exert pressure on Westerners.

© 2022 AFP