What scenarios did the World Health Organization expect for the development of the Corona pandemic?

How much vaccination rate in the population is needed to control the Covid pandemic?

And what categories has Qatar decided to receive the fourth dose of the Corona vaccine?

The World Health Organization has launched its updated strategic plan for preparedness and response to the “Covid-19” pandemic, and this is the third strategic plan of its kind, and identifies the three possible scenarios for how the pandemic will develop this year, according to a report on the United Nations website.

The first scenario of the Corona pandemic

"Based on what we know now, the most likely scenario is that the virus continues to evolve, but the severity of the disease it causes will decrease over time thanks to increased immunity with vaccination and infection," said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization.

According to the UN official, cases and deaths may rise with diminishing immunity, which may require periodic vaccination of vulnerable population groups.

The second scenario of the Corona pandemic is the best scenario

“In the best case scenario, we may see less severe variants emerge, and it would not be necessary to use booster vaccinations or new vaccine combinations,” Adhanom says.

The third scenario of the Corona pandemic, the worst scenario

“In a worst-case scenario, a more virulent and transmissible variant emerges,” Adhanom says, and in the face of this new threat, “the protection of people from severe illness and death, whether from previous vaccination or infection, will quickly diminish.”

He stressed that addressing this situation requires making a major change in the current vaccines and ensuring that they reach the people most at risk of serious diseases.

Ending the acute phase of the Covid pandemic

To end the acute phase of the pandemic, Dr Tedros called on countries to invest in 5 key elements:

  • Monitoring, laboratory, and public health intelligence.

  • Immunization, public health, social actions, and community engagement.

  • COVID-19 clinical care and resilient health systems.

  • Research, development and equitable access to equipment and supplies.

  • Coordination, where the response transitions from an emergency setting to long-term respiratory disease management.

How much vaccination rate in the population is needed to control the Covid pandemic?

The quest to vaccinate 70 percent of each country's population remains essential to control the pandemic, with priority given to health workers, the elderly and other at-risk groups.

"I am amazed that there are some in the global health community who believe that the 70% target is no longer valid," Adhanom said.

Although some high-income countries are now providing fourth doses to their populations, a third of the world's population has not yet received a single dose, of which 83% are in Africa, according to Adhanom.

"If the world's rich enjoy the benefits of high coverage of vaccines, why don't the world's poor enjoy that too? Are some lives more valuable than others?" Adhanom asked.

Adhanom said this is the third strategic plan issued by the WHO, and is likely to be the last.

The first report was issued in February 2020, at the start of the pandemic.

Qatar approves the fourth dose of the Corona vaccine for individuals at high risk of severe infection

The Ministry of Public Health has approved the use of the fourth dose of the “Pfizer-BioNTech” and “Moderna” vaccine against the Corona virus for individuals at high risk of severe infection, according to the Qatar News Agency on Wednesday.

The ministry stated - in a statement - that the fourth dose is given to individuals aged 60 years and over and individuals with chronic diseases that increase the risk of severe infection caused by "Covid-19", regardless of age, as the fourth dose will be applied to these individuals after 4 months after they had received the booster dose (the third) or had contracted COVID-19.

The decision of the Ministry of Public Health comes in accordance with the latest scientific and clinical evidence that the immunity obtained by individuals most vulnerable to severe infection from the third booster dose or recovering from infection begins to fade after 4 months.

The Ministry confirmed that these individuals are more likely to contract the disease for long periods, according to local and international clinical evidence, and that the fourth dose contributes to increasing their immunity and provides protection for them from "Covid-19".

She pointed out that many countries around the world began applying the fourth dose to the segment of the population most vulnerable to severe infection.

The Ministry of Public Health in Qatar has identified the categories of individuals most vulnerable to severe infection and eligible to receive the fourth dose of the Corona vaccine, and they are:

  • Individuals 60 years of age or older.

  • People undergoing treatment for cancer, tumors or blood cancers.

  • People who have received an organ transplant and are undergoing treatment that weakens their immune system.

  • People who have had a stem cell transplant in the last two years.

  • People undergoing treatment that weakens the immune system.

  • People with moderate to severe primary immunodeficiency (eg, DiGeorge and Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome).

  • If the person has advanced or untreated HIV infection.

  • People undergoing high-dose treatment with corticosteroids or other drugs that may suppress the immune response such as tumor necrosis blockers and other immunosuppressive or immunomodulatory biological agents.

  • Having a chronic disease such as diseases of the spleen and kidneys.

America allows the elderly to receive a fourth dose

On Tuesday, the US Food and Drug Administration authorized the administration of a second booster dose (i.e. a fourth dose) of the most widely used anti-Covid-19 vaccine, for those aged 50 and over based on data that showed weak immunity and risks posed by mutated Omicron strains of the Corona virus.

The administration said that the two new booster doses, which represent the fourth dose for most of those who received the "Pfizer-Biontech" and Moderna vaccines, are given at least 4 months after the previous dose, and the goal of these two doses is to provide more protection from severe disease and hospitalization.

The administration also authorized the administration of a second booster dose to younger people with weakened immunity.

Those aged 12 years and over receive a dose of the "Pfizer-Biontech" vaccine, while those aged 18 years and over receive a dose of the "Moderna" vaccine.

The leave comes at a time when some scientists have raised concerns about the mutated PA2 sub-strain of Omicron, which has led to an increase in new cases of "Covid-19" in some countries.

According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, infections with "Covid-19" in the United States have fallen sharply since the record increase recorded in January.