It is difficult to say whether the war in Ukraine can soon be ended with a diplomatic agreement.
Putin's military problems speak in favor, his geopolitical goals against.
What is relevant for the latter is what Ukraine brought into the talks with Moscow under the keywords neutrality and security guarantees.
Selenskyj is known to be willing to renounce the envisaged NATO membership if he receives a promise of assistance from other states.
At first it was just a small circle, but now the Ukrainians are talking about the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus other countries, including Germany.
Sort of like Article 5 of NATO
In the West, which is not at the negotiating table, there is no debate about it.
Most important would be the position of the United States, but the White House has so far dodged questions about it.
Signals of readiness are coming from London and Berlin, but they sound rather general.
In fact, things are not easy.
Apparently, the Ukrainians envisage a regulation that would roughly correspond to Article 5 of NATO.
The guarantor powers should more or less automatically rush to the country's aid in the event of an attack.
At the same time, however, they should refrain from stationing their own troops in Ukraine.
So there would only be an indirect deterrent against Russia, but a higher risk than on NATO's eastern flank.
Apart from the question of whether such an arrangement would be compatible with Putin's claims to hegemony, it is uncertain whether the Western states in particular would make a binding commitment to military assistance to Ukraine;
the Berlin hints speak volumes.
The West cannot get out of the strategic dilemma it has been facing since the country joined NATO in 2008, which it promised but never completed: the security that Ukraine demands and deserves must be enforced against Russia.
But nobody is ready for that.