“Putin or Europe?” can be read on posters in the streets of Budapest.

In Hungary, the war in Ukraine has become the main subject of the campaign for the general elections on 3rd April.

While the ultra-conservative Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, wants to win a fourth consecutive term, the opposition continues to criticize his closeness to Moscow.

A few days before the election, domestic political issues have become inaudible, and the vote is taking on the appearance of a referendum between openness to the East and reconciliation with the European Union.

"Before the start of the war in Ukraine, the electoral campaign was mainly dominated by societal issues: Viktor Orban's party, Fidesz, advocated 'traditional values' and the fight against 'LGBT propaganda'", explains to France 24 Daniel Hegedus, political scientist, specialist in Eastern European countries at the German Marshall Fund.

Sunday, the legislative election will also be accompanied by a referendum on a bill aimed at "prohibiting the representation and promotion of homosexuality and transidentity among minors". 

For its part, the opposition, led by the conservative Peter Marki-Zay, "focused mainly on the fight against corruption", continues the political scientist.

In the first months of the campaign, the stated objective of this unprecedented bloc, which brings together six parties covering the entire political spectrum, was indeed to overthrow "the most corrupt government in a thousand years of Magyar history". .

But since February 24, these themes have been relegated to the background, overshadowed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the influx of refugees arriving in Hungary and global geopolitical upheavals.

Orban's balancing act

Since his return to power in 2010, Viktor Orban has continued to strengthen his economic and political ties with the Kremlin, reminds France 24 Paul Gradvohl, historian specializing in Eastern Europe at Panthéon-Sorbonne University. .

"Today, this is the main argument of the opposition, which denounces a head of state 'to the boot of Putin'."

"Orban and Putin, or the West and Europe - this is what this election is all about. A choice between the dark side or the good side of history", summed up Péter Márki-Zay in a message published on the social media.

Faced with these internal criticisms and with a view to protecting his image internationally, the Hungarian Prime Minister is playing the tightrope walker.

He, who was still received with great fanfare in Moscow on February 1, did not hesitate to condemn the war in Ukraine and to support Western sanctions against the Kremlin.

Even more astonishing, it recently accepted the deployment of NATO troops on part of its territory.

Known for its anti-migrant policy, it also surprised by adopting a reception policy at its borders.

Since February 24, his country has received more than 130,000 refugees from Ukraine, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 

But out of the question, on the other hand, for Budapest, to alienate Russia by agreeing to deliver arms to Ukraine or to let them pass through its territory.

It is also out of the question to do without Russian gas despite the sanctions.

"The country is completely dependent on Moscow for energy," explains Pierre Gradvohl.

And to recall: "In addition to gas dependence, in 2014, Hungary entrusted Russia with the development of two nuclear power plants (the Paks complex) on its territory."

"The Russians guarantee 80% of our country's gas supply. If we turn off the tap, we won't be able to cook or heat ourselves. And without the extension of the Paks complex, electricity prices would quadruple," argued the pro-government newspaper Magyar Nemzet in early March.

"The choice of peace and security"

"Concretely, Orban is faithful to his position as an ultra-nationalist and asserts a position where he privileges above all the interests of his country", sums up Pierre Gradvohl.

"And conversely, he portrays the opposition as ready to put external interests ahead of national interests."

During an important meeting organized on March 15, Hungarian National Day, Viktor Orban thus presented himself in front of a crowd of supporters as the "peace" candidate against an opposition "which has lost its mind". , "ready to engage in a cruel and bloody war".

"The right is the camp of peace, the left is that of war," he said. 

At the same time, on the other side of the Danube, the leader of the opposition was organizing a counter-rally.

The crowd waved Ukrainian and European flags and held a moment of silence in honor of the victims of the war.

Peter Marki-Zay, he called for voting "for the good side of history", and promised to reconcile Hungary and the European Union, whose relations have been damaged by ten years of Fidesz government . 

Pro-Putin propaganda in the service of Orban

"In these arguments, Orban has a major advantage over the opposition: he can count on his hold on the media to carry his speech", continues Pierre Gradvohl.

Since coming to power, the prime minister has effectively locked down the media landscape, silencing many opposition newspapers and exercising tight control over state media. 

“In most of the public and private media, pro-Russian propaganda is in full swing and uses a rhetoric close to that of the Kremlin,” notes the historian.

"And obviously, we relay the word of Orban much more than that of the opposition."

Latest example: Friday, March 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky directly challenged Viktor Orban in a message to EU leaders, calling on him to "choose sides".

“The next day, public television offered the Prime Minister a ten-minute platform to justify himself, without counterweight from the opposition,” relates the historian.

“An election still uncertain”

Will this propaganda and this displayed neutrality be enough for Orban to ensure victory in Sunday's ballot, against an opposition more united than ever?

According to a poll by the pro-government institute Nézopont, published on March 21, Orban would be credited with 49% of voting intentions, against 41% for his rival – a number of supporters in the ruling party that has been increasing since the start of the conflict. 

"The ballot is still uncertain and in this very polarized society, everything will be played on the undecided", agree Daniel Hegedus and Pierre Gradvohl.

"Presenting himself as a guarantor of peace is certainly beneficial for Orban. It allows him to reassure part of the population", notes Daniel Hegedus.

“And the war in Ukraine is distracting from conflicts it may have with the European Union and internal economic problems…”

"Overall, this vote was already taking on the appearance of a referendum pro or against Orban. It is also becoming a referendum on the direction that the country should take, between the European Union and Russia", he concludes. 

"War or not, the system, via its administrative division in particular, is favorable to Orban", nuance for his part Pierre Gradvohl.

"Whatever the outcome of the ballot, in my opinion, the war in Ukraine has all the same begun to falter the Orban system by creating awareness among the population. We will now see how far this will follow ."

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