The composition and appointment of the Presidential Transition Committee itself represents the direction and interests of the next government.
The 20th Presidential Transition Committee was composed of 7 secretaries and 23 members (24 including spokespersons) in 7 fields including economy, diplomacy and security.
However, there are no experts in the field that I expected and expected to be.
'population'.
Regarding the appointment of the transition committee, various characteristics such as 'Oh Nam Seo (a man in his 50s from Seoul National University)' and 'The Resurrection of MB Man' came and went.
It was also criticized for not appointing real estate experts and energy experts as members, citing the current government's 'real estate policy failure' as the main reason for its victory and putting the 'abolition of nuclear power-free policy' at the fore.
However, if you look inside, there are a lot of people who will actually do the job.
The transition committee was dispatched with 76 expert members, including high-ranking officials from the government and local governments, professors from academia, and private sector experts.
In addition, there are 73 working-level members, including manager-level civil servants and youth members.
Kim Seong-bo, head of the Seoul Housing Policy Office, Shim Gyo-eon, a professor of real estate at Konkuk University, Park Joo-heon, an energy expert at Dongduk Women's University, and Joo Young-joon, head of industrial policy at the Ministry of Industry, were called to take over.
There is no transition committee, but experts who will help them are included in the transition committee.
However, there is no expert who can diagnose demographic change and organize countermeasures, not only among the members, but also among the experts.
Although some central government officials in charge of related tasks are included in the working-level committee, there is not enough sense of weight to guide the policy.
There are two reasons why this situation is surprising.
First, the president-elect Yoon Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo, the transition chairperson, recognized the seriousness of the demographic problem and emphasized an active response.
President-elect Yoon promised to promote the establishment of new ministries to deal with children, families, and the population.
Regarding the response to the abolition of the Leisure Ministry, an official from the predecessor committee said, "Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol (at the time) is very interested in the problem of population decline and low birthrate, so I think it would be better to create a new ministry dedicated to it."
Accordingly, with the abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, the promise of a 'Ministry of Population and Family Affairs' is being discussed in the government organization law reform plan.
In an interview with the media, President-elect Yoon said, "The basic direction is to organically link the macro approach of 'employment stability, housing stability, work-life balance environment creation' and the welfare (micro) approach of 'pregnancy, childbirth, and child rearing support'. "he said.
The TV debate said, "In order to increase the fertility rate, all institutional supports such as pregnancy and childbirth support, job expansion, housing stability, work-family balance, etc. are necessary. The structure of an overly competitive society must be improved." It also revealed the perception that it is a tangled problem in general.
He also suggested a solution, saying, "You have to improve the job culture and balance opportunities by relieving the anxiety of young people and achieving balanced regional development, so that young people's goals will be diversified and they will have children."
Ahn Cheol-soo, chairman of the transition committee, called for 'pension reform' throughout the election period.
Pension reform is one of the most acute and difficult tasks brought about by demographic changes.
Chairman Ahn even emphasized the urgent need for reform, saying, "Leaving the current pension system as it is is a criminal act."
Regarding the population cliff, he has a solution: "First, we need to create a good job, and properly improve and supply the living environment. I think that implementing a regional balanced development policy is a fundamental low fertility policy."
The second reason why there is no demographic expert on the transition committee is that the impact of the demographic change is imminent and is expected to be very large.
A social phenomenon such as a tsunami that comes slowly but is clearly observed, and changes everything with a huge destructive force when it lands, is a demographic change.
It's not just the 'world's lowest total fertility rate', an old story.
In 2022, South Korea is experiencing low birthrates, low birthrates, an aging population, and retirement of the baby boomer generation at the same time.
The demographic change in Korea is very Korean.
The change is dramatic and the variance is large.
It is rare to find a country where the number of births has plummeted like this, but it is rare to find a country where the number of elderly people is increasing so rapidly.
Often, 'low fertility and aging' gives only the impression that "there will be fewer people to work in the future and economic vitality will decrease", but the tsunami has already reached the coast.
Already last year, Korean universities faced a wave of 'undercapacity'.
Although the number of international students has decreased due to COVID-19 and the rate of college admissions has decreased, the real cause is the number of children born in 2002.
A total of 496,000 children born in 2002 were born, which is a drop of 143,000 from the 640,000 born in 2000 two years ago.
In just two years, the university was faced with a decrease of more than 22% in one age group.
“This problem does not end with the university,” emphasized Cho Young-tae, a professor of public health at Seoul National University, a population sociologist.
“Universities are connected to graduate schools, and graduate schools are the national R&D. Educational institutions that produce national R&D manpower will inevitably be operated laxly. Also, if local universities fail, talents will not flow to the region, and then Industries in the region cannot recruit talent, and the industry-university-research ecosystem is completely ruined.”
(Professor Young-Tae Cho)
The wave hit by universities was hit by schools and private education markets, followed by the military and corporations.
But businesses are facing a different shock.
Baby boomers (born between 55 and 63), who are said to account for 7.12 million, or 14% of our population, are leaving their workplaces at dusk.
Since 2020, the eldest, born in 55, turned 65.
Statistically, the 'production-age population' and the 'economically active population' (15-64 years old) have entered the elderly population.
These days, people in their 60s are considered young people, but legally, the retirement age has passed.
The cost of supporting the elderly is skyrocketing.
The number of people aged 65 and over, from 8.13 million last year, will more than double to 17.22 million in 20 years.
The shortage of manpower at industrial sites, reduced productivity, depletion of pensions, deterioration of health insurance finances, and poverty among the elderly are expected to occur like dominoes.
Seulgi Choi, a professor at the KDI Graduate School of International Policy, who is an expert on demographics, diagnosed the situation in Korea as "it is not a situation that can be made by leaving it as it is."
"It has been getting worse and worse in recent years. The number of annual births of 400,000 has now dropped to the mid-200,000s, and the total fertility rate, which was still over 1.0, has fallen to 0.81. This problem is getting more serious. Even the reorganization of the government organization that can think and implement active policies and implement them needs to be discussed in the transition committee now.”
(Professor Seulgi Choi)
When asked if there were any population experts to deal with this issue at the current takeover committee, Professor Cho Young-tae replied, "There is no one. It's amazing."
If so, are the previous governments, including the Moon Jae-in administration, sufficiently prepared to the extent that the transition committee has nothing to do with it?
Not like that.
Professor Seulgi Choi criticized the population policy so far, saying, "The low-level system has reached the end of its lifespan."
“For the past five years, the population problem has been swayed by other goals, but the problem itself has not been properly explored. ."
(Professor Seulgi Choi)
Professor Cho Young-tae pointed out, "Until now, when it comes to population problems, we have only been concerned about the low birth rate."
“As a result, policies and budgets were concentrated only from the perspective of childcare or gender. When the Ministry of Health and Welfare obtained the height, it looked at the problem only from the viewpoint of childcare, and when the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family obtained the height, it only dealt with the problem of gender. In that way, 15 years have passed. The population problem is not the only problem with the low birth rate. You can see how the Korean society will change because of the demographic change that has already occurred. Then, you can quickly check whether the system, structure, and policies are in line with the changed society, and change what needs to be changed. We have to plan something, but now there is no organization (government department) or law to do such a project.”
(Professor Young-Tae Cho)
From this point of view, Professor Cho pointed out that the new government needs a government organization that can coordinate the complex conflicts that are expected to occur due to changes in the demographic structure and changes in the economic structure.
“We need to prepare in advance for the problems facing the people’s lives, not to be confused when things happen. We need an organization with a planning function for the future and a law to support it. We need measures such as upgrading.”
(Professor Young-Tae Cho)
Currently, the Low Fertility and Aging Society Committee was launched in 2005 with the enactment of the Basic Act on Low Fertility and Aging Society during the Roh Moo-hyun administration.
However, since it is not a government department with an executive function, it has no budgetary authority or the function of issuing bills.
In addition, rather than a policy coordination function as a control tower, it has a strong character as a policy advisory body such as the 'Roadmap for Low Fertility and Aging Population'.
During the presidential election process, many pledges focused only on 'overcoming the low birth rate', so it is necessary to review this before the government is launched, Professor Choi says.
"The low fertility issue has led to competitive competition for childbirth support. The election is over, and just as we are reviewing other pledges now, the low fertility-related pledges must also be reviewed. If you don't do it, it's money thrown into the air. It's necessary to verify the effectiveness of the promises now and review the policy before it's too late."
(Professor Seulgi Choi)
For example, during the presidential election, President-elect Yoon promised a 'parent's salary' of 1 million won a month for a total of 12 million won for one year after giving birth.
Assuming that the level of 270,000 births last year is maintained, it is a representative financial support pledge that costs 3.2 trillion won a year.
If this policy is incorporated into the national agenda without review, a lot of pain is expected in the budgeting and legislative process.
This is because it is expected that there will be an effective dispute over the fact that it is difficult to respond to the low fertility rate with only 'cash spread'.
Since the transition committee in their 20s has already started, it is difficult to expect a reorganization of the personnel composition.
It seems that it will be difficult to comprehensively coordinate complex and complex population issues and review policies appropriately at the transition stage with the current personnel composition alone.
Although it is said that a dedicated department will be newly established, it is expected that considerable energy will be needed only to warm up, such as the abolition of the leisure department and organizational reorganization.
It is questionable whether the new ministries will be able to take charge of restructuring universities and discussing the extension of the retirement age, which have acute interests.
Even if there is a change of government, the policies that will continue should be continued, but the population policy is not.
I hope that the new government will not become a government that does not 'look up' even when the comet of demographic change is approaching.
(Photo = Yonhap News)