After 22 years, there could be a change of power in the Saar, with the CDU threatening to lose the state chancellery to the SPD.

The latest survey sees the party of Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) at only 28 percent, while the SPD at 41 percent.

The Greens and FDP received around five percent, the Left four and the AfD 6.5 percent.

Julian Staib

Political correspondent for Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland based in Wiesbaden.

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In the last state election in Saarland in 2017, it had long looked like a head-to-head race between the CDU and SPD.

Only at the end was Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) the happy winner, more than ten percentage points ahead.

But in the meantime, even CDU members no longer believe in such a turnaround in the upcoming election.

In Saarland the big parties have not yet lost their cohesiveness;

about every 20 years, the CDU and SPD took turns in leading the country.

From 1955 to 1980, the CDU was ahead, then the SPD until 1999, since then the country has been governed by the Christian Democrats - the next change could be on Sunday.

The first real test for Hans threatens to go wrong.

He is facing the voters for the first time in a state election after Kramp-Karrenbauer made him their successor in 2018.

His challenger is Deputy Prime Minister Anke Rehlinger (SPD), who has held various positions in the cabinet since 2012, most recently as Minister for Economic Affairs, Labour, Energy and Transport.

The CDU and SPD have governed together in a grand coalition since 2018.

You have been able to act largely undisturbed in recent years, the opposition in the state parliament consisting of left and AfD was mainly concerned with itself.

The Greens and FDP have not been represented in Parliament since 2017 and 2012 respectively.

The weakness of the small parties has mainly internal reasons.

Greens, AfD and left have been shattered by internal party disputes in Saarland for years.

Only the FDP has consolidated somewhat in Saarland.

But like the Greens in the country of industrial workers, it simply lacks voters.

Depending on how many of the small parties manage to jump over the five percent hurdle, very different constellations are conceivable.

Should several small parties fail, it could even be enough for an absolute majority - in all likelihood for the SPD.

There may also be a grand coalition again, but then under the opposite sign.

In Saarland, seats are allocated according to the d'Hondt system, which tends to offer advantages for the large parties.

If the FDP and the Greens enter the state parliament, tripartite alliances are also possible.

However, the CDU has had bad experiences with a Jamaica coalition. Kramp-Karrenbauer announced such an alliance in 2012 after the FDP was involved in endless disputes at the time.

It is also unlikely that the Greens will participate, as it is unclear who is in charge in the party.

There is also a risk of strong friction with the Greens in the major economic challenges facing the very industrial Saarland.