Expert: "Putin's lessons learned from Syria applied in Ukraine today"

Putin has learned lessons from Syria that are being applied in Ukraine today.

This is the opinion of Aron Lund, FOI's Syria expert.

He points out that Putin himself has repeatedly said that commanders have practiced in Syria, in order to gain war experience. 

- Syria has been used to sharpen the Russian military and give key personnel combat experience.

The figure mentioned by Putin last year is that 90 percent of all Russian pilots have combat experience.

Then, of course, it is in Syria that this experience has been gained, he says.

War crimes are part of Russian tactics 

He also sees a number of similarities between Russia's actions in Syria and in Ukraine today - including when it comes to warfare and the propaganda used.

- Russian forces have committed a lot of war crimes in Syria and now also seem to do so in Ukraine.

Siege of cities, attacking civilian targets and open humanitarian corridors is a tactic reminiscent of the one Russia used in Syria.

But the difference, he says, is that Syria was a supportive force for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In Ukraine, Russia is responsible for everything and there it is clearer who does what.

The Ukraine war threatens developments in Syria 

A serious consequence of the Ukraine war, which Aron Lund thinks is important to highlight, is that Russian-American diplomacy is entering a kind of frozen situation.

Then conflicts all over the world will be affected.

Syria will also be greatly affected if US-Russia relations deteriorate even more.

- The UN resolution that is particularly threatened is the resolution that allows aid organizations to bring aid materials across the Turkish border.

If it is not renewed this year, millions of people risk being completely cut off from development aid.

This would be a huge and immediate humanitarian catastrophe. 

The parties can deliberately keep the situation locked 

For the past eleven years, the parties involved have not been focused on ending the war, says Aron Lund.  

 - You consciously keep the situation locked - and once you negotiate, you only look after your own clients, whether it is Russia with Assad, the United States with the Kurdish groups, or Turkey with different rebel forces.