what happened

A warning light has been turned on for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

This is because of one intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class long-range ballistic missile that North Korea launched on the 24th (Thursday).

It is the first successful ICBM launch by North Korea in 1576 days since the launch of the Hwasong-15 missile on November 29, 2017.

With this launch, North Korea broke the 'moratorium' declared just before the 2018 North Korea-U.S. summit by itself, and the 'Korean Peninsula peace process' that was promoted during the five years of the Moon Jae-in administration has also returned to its origins.




At 2:34 p.m. on the 24th, the ballistic missile launched by North Korea from the Pyongyang Sunan Airfield toward the East Sea climbed to an altitude of 6,200 km, then fell and flew 1,080 km.

This is the highest altitude ever.

The high altitude was due to firing at an angle higher than normal to test with a reduced flight distance.

Although the Joint Chiefs of Staff did not disclose the exact type of missile, it is estimated that it has improved performance compared to the Hwasong-15 type four years ago, which flew for about 53 minutes with a peak altitude of 4,475 km and a range of 950 km.



There is also talk of the possibility that the missile launched this time could be the world's largest multiple warhead ICBM, the Hwasong-17.

Hwasong-17 is the longest and thickest ICBM in the world with a length of over 23m and a body diameter of over 2.3m, also called a 'monster ICBM'.

However, although North Korea has announced that it is a Hwasong-17 type, the South Korean military authorities are saying that "there are many possibilities open."

In fact, the possibility that it was announced as the Hwasong-17 type while firing other missiles cannot be ruled out.



how different

What makes this missile more attractive than ever is its performance.

Experts estimate that considering the altitude and flight distance, if the missile is fired at a normal angle, it will surpass the Hwasong-15, which has a maximum range of 13,000 km.

This is a range that can hit eastern areas such as Washington DC and New York on the mainland United States.

It can be said that it is a level that the United States can accept as a real threat to security.



Of particular interest is what kind of warhead the missile launched this time can carry.

It is not yet confirmed whether multiple warheads were tested in this test launch, but it has been evaluated that the Hwasong-17 can carry 2-3 multiple warheads.

Multiple warheads include multiple warhead reentry vehicles (MRVs), in which multiple warheads strike a single target, and multiple warheads individually targeting reentry vehicles (MIRVs), in which multiple warheads strike different targets.



If North Korea obtained the MIRV technology this time, it would theoretically be possible to strike Washington DC and New York on the mainland of the United States with one missile at the same time.

It also makes it more difficult for the US to intercept North Korean warheads through its missile defense system.



how are you responding

President Moon Jae-in announced his position of 'strong condemnation' of North Korea at the NSC, an emergency meeting of the National Security Council, convened less than an hour after the news of the launch was announced.

It has been 4 years and 4 months since the last provocation.

At the meeting, President Moon stated that this launch was a voluntary breach of the suspension of ICBM launches promised by Chairman Kim Jong-un to the international community.

It is reported that he instructed the head of the National Security Office to brief Yun Seok-yeol of the situation and response plan to Yoon Seok-yeol at the staff meeting held next.



In response to North Korea's provocations, the ROK military responded by firing short-range ballistic missiles as well as drilling to hit ground targets with a Haesong-II fleet-to-surface missile and an air-to-surface joint precision direct strike projectile.



The White House immediately issued a statement condemning North Korea.

Spokesperson Jen Saki called the launch "a blatant violation of UN Security Council resolutions and calls on all countries to hold North Korea accountable for its violations."

Still, he added: "The door to diplomacy is not closed, but actions that create instability must be stopped immediately," he added, adding the possibility of further dialogue.



At a regular briefing by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China emphasized the 'political solution' for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

When asked about the North Korean missile launch, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Wang Won-bin said, "I hope that the relevant countries will stick to the direction of dialogue and negotiations and work jointly for the political resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue."



The United Nations is scheduled to hold an open meeting to respond to North Korea's ICBM test launch for the first time since 2017 at 3 pm local time on the 25th in New York, and around 4 am on the 26th (Sat) in Korea time.

It is known that the meeting was requested by six countries including Albania, Ireland, and Norway, including the permanent members of the Security Council such as the United States, Britain, and France.

The Korean government is also planning to attend the meeting with Korean Ambassador to the United Nations Cho Hyun-joo to express his views as interested parties.



North Korean missile provocations

It is analyzed that various political calculations may have worked in North Korea's intentional provocation.

North Korea launched a medium-range ballistic missile, the Hwasong-12, shortly after the inauguration of President Moon Jae-in in 2017, and twice in July of the same year, the Hwasong-14, an ICBM.

Prior to that, in February 2013, the third nuclear test was carried out even before Park Geun-hye took office as president.



Several foreign diplomats are analyzing this as a provocation to tame the 'Yun Seok-yeol government' by mobilizing force during the regime change and to press the US administration, which is paying attention to the Ukraine situation.

North Korea stopped armed protests in 2018 when it turned to a peaceful offensive, but resumed armed protests after the breakdown of the North Korea-U.S. summit in February 2019 and has fired various ballistic missiles 30 times so far.



In particular, it is evaluated that it is gradually increasing the intensity of armed provocations by test-fired 12 missiles including this one this year alone.

Even before the presidential election, the Hwasong-17 was tested on the 27th and 5th of last month, and the Hwasong-17 was launched again on the 16th.

While President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol expressed 'a decisive response through the ROK-US alliance,' there are also concerns that North Korea's high-intensity provocations could continue in the future.