More than 5 months after the legislative elections were held on October 10, the date for electing the President of the Republic, set by the Iraqi parliament, is approaching tomorrow, Saturday.
The delay in this date came as a result of the appeals submitted to the Federal Court, which excluded the Kurdistan Democratic Party candidate, Hoshyar Zebari, and opened the door for nomination for one time, with a time limit set for the election of the president that ends on April 6.
The presidential election is a dark tunnel
And to confirm that it is the largest bloc in parliament in preparation for Saturday’s session, the tripartite alliance consisting of the Sadrist bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr, the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani announced, yesterday, Wednesday, the establishment of a broad parliamentary alliance called “Save the Nation” with the nomination of Ahmed Reber from The Kurdistan Democratic Party for the position of President of the Republic, and Muhammad Jaafar al-Sadr as Prime Minister, and to confirm the formation of a majority parliamentary government.
The leader of the Sadrist movement blessed the announcement of the new alliance, describing its formation as a unique and important achievement to save the nation, wishing the formation of a national majority government without procrastination or delay.
pic.twitter.com/JxnJIboHrW
— Muqtada al-Sayyid Muhammad al-Sadr (@Mu_AlSadr) March 23, 2022
Al-Tamimi: The parliament has 30 days to decide the choice of the president of the republic (Al-Jazeera)
political shutdown
The parliament had approved the names of 40 candidates for the position of the President of the Republic, most notably the Kurdistan Democratic Party candidate, who seems more likely to win than his rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) candidate Barham Salih, who appears to be closer to the other Shiite camp or what is known as the coordinating framework that includes prominent Shiite forces.
With the continuing political closure between the "Save the Homeland" alliance on the one hand and the coordination framework and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan on the other, it seems that all scenarios are possible regarding the election of the country's president.
The past few days witnessed a first-of-its-kind contact between the leader of the Sadrist movement and the leader of the State of Law coalition, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and the accompanying possibility of resolving differences between the two sides, but the reality revealed that the differences are still continuing.
In the meantime, and according to the current data, there is increasing talk about the rationale that governs the election of the President of the Republic due to legal and political complications. Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi believes that, according to the recent Federal Court Decision No. 24 regarding opening the door for nomination for the position of President of the Republic for one time, the Presidency of Parliament has a period of 30 Only a day, according to Article 72 - Second of the Constitution, which extends from March 6 to next April 6 and is binding on Parliament.
Al-Tamimi continues - his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - by noting that if Parliament fails to choose the new President of the Republic, the Parliament presidency can postpone the election until next April 6, and by the end of this period, Parliament will be in front of an explicit violation of the decision of the Federal Supreme Court that authorized the opening of the door The nomination is for one time, and that Parliament will then face what he described as an insoluble failure.
And about the consequences of this, he explained that the country may move to dissolve Parliament at the request of a third of its members, 329 deputies, with the approval of the absolute majority of the number of members in accordance with Article 64 of the Constitution, or by a decision of the Federal Supreme Court if a referendum is held on the dissolution of Parliament without the need for the latter’s vote on that, explaining that In both cases, the country will be facing new early elections, with the current government continuing to conduct business according to the same article of the constitution.
Speaking about the reasons for electing the president if the quorum of the next parliamentary session is complete, Al-Tamimi added that the election of the president is provided that the quorum is complete and two-thirds of parliament members (220 deputies) are present at the start of voting, adding, “If the first session witnessed that 220 deputies did not vote in favor of any of the candidates, Parliament is heading for a second round in which the competition is limited to the first and second highest winners, and that any of them obtaining the highest votes (whatever their number) qualifies him to be President of the Republic.
He explained that the legal conclusion for this is Article 70 of the Constitution and according to Law No. 8 of 2012, with the stipulation that the number of attending the second round should be no less than two-thirds of the members of Parliament, which is also represented by 220 deputies.
Haider Al-Moussawi: The tripartite coalition "Save the Homeland" has not yet been able to confirm the achievement of the quorum for the next parliamentary session (Al-Jazeera)
The problem of the blocking third
With the knowledge of the legal details of the presidential election session, the problem of the blocking third in Parliament is clear, as the director of the Political Decision Center Haider al-Moussawi confirmed that the tripartite “Save the Nation” coalition had not yet been able to confirm the achievement of a quorum for the next parliamentary session to elect the president of the republic, especially that the leader The Sadrist movement, a few days ago, invited the independent deputies to attend the session.
The director of the Political Decision Center - and in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - explained that Al-Sadr's call came as a result of the political closure between his current and the obstructing third represented by the coordination framework and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in reaching a consensual formula and the formation of national unity.
Haider al-Moussawi, who is close to the coordination framework, believes that the division of positions among the independent representatives will lead to the tripartite alliance not being able to achieve a quorum, emphasizing that the failure to elect the president of the republic may lead to more complications, and this may lead the country to move to an emergency government.
Regarding the possibility of the tripartite alliance succeeding in reaching a quorum, he comments that this scenario, if it happens, “will not last long, especially since the blocking third will obstruct all the decisions that the tripartite coalition will try to pass under the dome of Parliament, bearing in mind that the coordinating framework has many papers that It can be used, including resorting to the street, as well as the possibility of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan dividing the region into two separate administrations.
And the director of the Political Decision Center warned - the end of his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that if the political differences continued as they were, the country might go to chaos, and what could lead to the parliament being obligated to resolve itself within 60 days through the request of the President of the Republic to the Federal Court's fatwa to do so.
Kurdish position
On the other hand, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Wafa Muhammad Karim, revealed, on Wednesday, that the tripartite alliance, in the event of its failure to gather a full quorum for the session to elect the president of the republic, will not attend that session and will not give the thrill of victory to the other party, as he put it.
Karim added - by speaking to one of the media - that the position of next Saturday's session is still ambiguous, especially since the tripartite alliance has a fixed number of deputies of 174 deputies with its reliance on the presence of independents and opponents to complete the quorum, some of whom confirmed the attendance of the session, and that some variables may witness the withdrawal of some them or share with others.
Manaf Al-Moussawi: The tripartite alliance has proven in two previous experiences that it is capable of achieving a quorum of two-thirds (Al-Jazeera)
Meanwhile, political researcher Manaf al-Moussawi believes that the political situation in the country is still very difficult and complicated, but the tripartite alliance has proven in two previous experiences that it is able to achieve a quorum of two-thirds in Parliament.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Manaf al-Moussawi, who is close to the Sadrist movement, explained that the coalition succeeded in electing Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi in the presence of 229 deputies despite the boycott of the coordination framework and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, pointing out that the second experience was in opening the door to candidacy for the presidency for the second time when Parliament was able to pass It was attended by 265 deputies.
Independents weighing eggs
The researcher added that the Kurdish New Generation Movement confirmed the attendance of the presidential election session, as well as assurances issued by the blocs of the extension of the representative of the protesters and Tishreen Sunrise, which may achieve a quorum of the legal session of 220 deputies.
Nevertheless, the researcher reveals another problem, which is that if the quorum is achieved in the first session, with the tripartite coalition candidate not obtaining the votes of two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives, the parliament will go to a second session in which the candidate will win the majority, provided that the same parliamentary quorum is achieved, represented by the presence of 220 Deputy for the second session, which the researcher believes may constitute a real dilemma.
By going to the independent deputies, the extension bloc (9 seats) had confirmed last Monday that it would attend the presidential election session, and its representative, Haider Al-Salami, said that they would not obstruct the presidential election session and would not break its quorum.
He added - in a press interview - that the extension bloc is allied with the Kurdish New Generation bloc (9 seats) within the "For the People" coalition, and that the coalition has two candidates for the presidency, Rebwar Orahman and Sattar Saleh Aref, and that the coalition's vote will be for one of them.
Cougar: The Kurdistan Islamic Union is not a party to any coalition (Al-Jazeera)
As for the Kurdistan Islamic Union (4 seats), it seems that it has not yet decided, as its representative, Jamal Kougar, confirmed that his party is not a party to any alliance, whether it is the tripartite alliance or the coordinating framework, and that their positions express the party’s vision regardless of religious or national affiliation.
Cougar added - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that his party is still putting pressure on the Kurdish parties to agree with their quest to bring the Shiite parties closer, indicating that his party's position has not yet been resolved, and that the decision to attend the session or not will be in the last moments.
Al-Abed: The independents have become the weight of the egg in Parliament (Al-Jazeera)
In this context, the independent political researcher Ghanem Al-Abed believes that the political conflict is still intensified, and that there is a desire to strengthen the position of the Triple Alliance by inviting the Sadrist movement for independents to attend the parliamentary session.
And he continued - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there are "big" divisions within the coordination framework, indicating that the Al-Fateh Alliance and "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq" have a desire to exceed the constitutional period that ends on April 6, which will enable the Federal Court to dissolve Parliament, indicating These trends (with Al-Fateh and Asaib) contradict the desire of the State of Law coalition, which is keen not to dissolve Parliament due to its large number of seats (32).
And what the Triple Alliance needs in terms of seats to achieve a quorum, Al-Abed explained that the independents have become an egg in this parliamentary session in a precedent that Iraq has not witnessed previously. to a "dark tunnel" and that the situation at that time may be the end of the political process and the consequences are not bad.