The campaign without real debate makes some fear a possible re-election of Emmanuel Macron without real ratification of his project.
When asked, Virginie Martin sees in the course of the presidential campaign a possible new “election of frustration”.
There are barely more than two weeks of campaigning left, and the outgoing president, candidate since the beginning of March, is limiting his campaign activities to a minimum.
Even his presence as a candidate in the media is limited: his four-hour press conference, Thursday, March 17, appearing almost as an attempt to concentrate everything in one go.
Can this "non-campaign" cause a crisis of legitimacy for a possible second term of Emmanuel Macron?
Gérard Larcher, the president of the Senate, openly asked the question.
20 Minutes
asked the political scientist, teacher at Kedge Business School, Virginie Martin.
Gérard Larcher, the President of the Senate, openly questioned the "legitimacy" of a president elected at the end of a campaign without debate on the projects, did he do well?
Of course he did well.
The outgoing president argues that it had already happened like that in the past for outgoing presidents in the campaign... But that's not why it's still legitimate!
What are we comparing?
In years when social networks did not exist?
The media landscape had nothing to do with it.
So, of course, the question of legitimacy arises.
The fact that Emmanuel Macron does not campaign says the opposite of this "with you" that he says in his slogan, which is however rather well seen.
There is a real gap.
In reality, he is still not there.
However, being elected, but also being “well elected” is important.
Does that mean that it's not the same thing to be elected by 51% or 80%?
Oh no, it's not the same thing, it gives considerable political weight to the winner.
Today the bases of legitimacy during the elections are extremely weak, that is to say that on the whole the winner has only one, two or three people out of ten who have actually voted for him if we count the abstention or even non-registered.
It's utterly weak and doesn't give much leeway.
This is where the frustrations in the electorate arise: I called the 2017 election “an election of frustration”.
It was premonitory when you see what happened next with the "yellow vests".
In 2017, what I called the “protest bloc” came close to 50% in the first round.
In there, there are bound to be people who are extremely frustrated with the result.
In such a situation,
either the president-elect plays the game very well and satisfies possible frustrations or he splits the people in two by ignoring the frustrations of the election, which Macron did instead.
This year we still risk having an election of frustration with a very strong protest bloc, with potentially as many frustrated with the result if Macron is not wary.
But we are always frustrated with the result of an election when we are not on the winning side...
No, because the frustrations when they come from the extreme left and the extreme right are not the same thing as when the opposition is left-right.
Claims and objections are stronger and more frank.
There is a demand for radical change that a mere inflection of the winner of course cannot satisfy.
The case of the "yellow vests" is telling: we didn't really know if it came from the far right, from the far left, if it came from Mélenchon or more to the right than Le Pen... It was an amalgam , it was the addition of the very composite bloc of protesters of 2017.
Is Emmanuel Macron playing a risky game for a second term by limiting his campaign to the bare minimum?
He is already playing a dangerous game because it is not very democratic to stay in his ivory tower like that.
There is the law, there is usage, and then there is the spirit of the law and even the spirit of usage.
On this, he has it all wrong in his way of campaigning.
It's a problem !
He held a press conference that was certainly very complete, but despite the journalists' questions, it was not a debate, there is only one meeting planned... It's still difficult to get out of the hat at the last moment with his only superb outgoing president.
I don't think it's a very dangerous game as far as his own upcoming election is concerned.
But it will cause a lot of resentment in this possible second term.
These frustrations will be expressed here or there.
Or he manages to concretize his slogan "with you",
where he seems to show more empathy, consideration… As if the people were a little more part of his matrix.
But if this is not the case, it is only a broken promise, it can make certain subjects such as purchasing power or retirement at 65 explosive.
Today the most likely hypothesis is a new Macron Le Pen second round but where Emmanuel Macron would only win with 54 or 56% of the votes.
Could such a result weaken him as soon as he was reelected?
Of course !
A result like that against the far right would first say that the Republican front has lived, at least against Marine Le Pen;
that social issues, on which Marine Le Pen plays a lot, are at the heart of French people's concerns;
and that ultimately it is a president who triumphs ingloriously against a Le Pen.
We are a long way from the 82% of Jacques Chirac twenty years ago.
Of course it's not the same time, but that would mean that Marine Le Pen, with a new strategy and a program rid of certain far-right bogeymen, manages to destabilize someone like Macron.
This shows how much Emmanuel Macron attracts a lot of discontent against him: no matter if it's Marine Le Pen opposite, clearance remains very strong.
Elections
Emmanuel Macron will not be legitimate if he is elected without campaigning, according to Larcher
Politics
Emmanuel Macron presents his project, sweeping away any dodging of the democratic debate
Elections
Presidential election 2022
Election campaign
Emmanuel Macron
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