51% vs 46%
These are the voter turnout rates of Seok-Yeol Yoon and Jae-Myung Lee in Seoul in the 20th presidential election held on the 9th.
Considering that President-elect Yoon received about 310,000 more votes in Seoul alone, but the people's strength barely won by a margin of 247,000 votes nationwide, the Democratic Party's prediction that "we must win in Seoul to win the presidential election" was right in the end. no see.
How did the People's Power win the first majority of the votes of the conservative party in Seoul in 15 years?
I can guess that the reason is 'real estate', but how and how much influence did it have?
SBS obtained the results of analyzing the reasons for the People's Power Seoul Policy Research Institute.
The Seoul Institute for Policy Studies hypothesized and tested the hypothesis that the publicly announced price, which is not the real estate market price, which is subject to various market conditions, but is the standard for the imposition of property tax and estate tax, and is directly related to the amount of health insurance premiums and basic pension, may have influenced the votes.
Indeed, a strong correlation was revealed.
As a result of the analysis, if the published price per square meter of apartment houses (apartments) is 1% higher in 2021, the popular vote rate is 0.172%p higher.
This means that 17.2%p more of the public's power was reached where the published price was twice (100%) higher.
A similar trend was also observed in the 'effective vote rate', which reflects both the active participation in voting and the level of support for the people's power by combining the turnout and voter turnout.
Effective voting rate In 2021, if the publicly announced price per m2 of an apartment building is 1% higher, a correlation has been confirmed that increases the popular vote rate by 0.149%p.
Representative Yoo Gyeong-jun, head of the Seoul Institute for Policy Studies, said, "The real situation is also the real estate policy of the current government. In particular, in areas with many apartments, not only the market price but also the publicly announced price has raised the holding tax, which led to such a high effective vote rate. “, he explained.
In fact, if you look at the enthusiasm for voting participation by district in Seoul, the turnout for the 20th presidential election was Yangcheongap (80.2%), which has many large apartment complexes, Gangnam-eul (79.7%), Songpagap (79.1%), Gangnambyeong (79.0%), Seo Cho-gap (78.8%) had the highest turnout.
All of them exceeded the national turnout of 77.1%.
Looking at the vote rate and effective vote rate reflecting this enthusiasm for voting, Gangnambyeong (57.7%) had the highest percentage, followed by Seochogap, Seochoeul, Gangnameul, and Gangnamgap.
Gangnambyeong District is a traditionally conservative district, but at the same time, Daechi-dong, Samseong-dong, and Dogok-dong are included, so there are many expensive apartments such as 'Tower Palace'.
An analysis was also included to compare the effective vote rate with the 4.7 Seoul mayor by-election last year, about a year ahead of the 20th presidential election, to estimate the change in votes by region over the past year.
The difference was the largest as Gangnam-gap rose by 9%p, and Jung/Seong-dong, not Gangnam, took second place by 8.3%p.
Gwanakgap also ranked 6th with a gap of 7.3%p.
Assemblyman Yoo explained, "It is estimated that the election campaign in the area was effective, along with the supply of apartments through reconstruction."
The fact that the turnout in the Seoul mayor's by-election was relatively low at 58.2% and that the two elections had different candidates is something to keep in mind when looking at this gap.
Why was this analysis done?
This is because the nationwide simultaneous local elections, including the mayor of Seoul, are in front of your nose.
In order to make the final election result with a tighter approval rating, the people's power is highly likely to attack the real estate policy, which had the greatest dissension in public opinion in the current government.
President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol promised during his candidacy that he would adjust the fair market value ratio of the published real estate price to return the published price to the 2020 level, and reestablish a plan for realizing the published price later.
This year, the national public housing (apartment) price rose by 17.22% and in Seoul by 14.22%, continuing a double-digit increase from last year.
The government has also introduced measures such as freezing the tax for one householder, one homeowner, to reduce the burden of the ownership tax.
As the transfer of power is in full swing ahead of the local elections, the competition between the former government and the new government, a minority ruling party and a large opposition party to capture real estate is expected to intensify.