The American newspaper, The Financial Times, said that the Russian war on Ukraine and the emergence of new hotbeds of the Corona epidemic in China threaten the expected recovery of the global economy, especially in the old continent.
And the newspaper indicated - in a report - that 2022 was supposed to be the year of the global economy recovering from the shock of Covid-19, as official forecasters expected that the economies of the United States, Europe and China would almost return by the end of the year to the paths they were on before the epidemic, as Expect other emerging economies to grow, although they have been lagging behind at rapid rates and slowly returning to normal.
The International Monetary Fund said in its assessment last October that inflation is certainly a problem, but emphasized that rapid price growth “must decline gradually as supply and demand imbalances fade in 2022 and monetary policy response in major economies,” an assessment that did not Not naive at all, according to the newspaper.
In its assessment, the Fund referred to the geopolitical and epidemiological risks, but expressed the hope that they would be avoided, but after only 3 months of 2022, these warnings have become a reality and the global economy is now facing the risk of a sharp deterioration, according to the American newspaper.
Russia's military operation in Ukraine has caused a severe inflationary shock, driving up prices as energy supplies are threatened, household and corporate incomes shrink, and basic goods become more expensive.
With the largest war on European soil in nearly 80 years, the risk of military escalation is likely to undermine confidence in spending, and Europe will have to deal with larger refugee waves than it did in 2015.
Russia's military operation in Ukraine triggered a severe inflationary shock that sent prices higher, as energy supplies were threatened, household and corporate incomes dwindled, and basic goods became more expensive.
The return of the Corona virus to China again threatens global supply chains, which may cause amplification of pressures up for prices and down for production.
uncertainty
All of these developments undermine - according to the newspaper - global economic prospects, and surround them with so much uncertainty that the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Matthias Kormann, said that the organization "is not in a position to provide" its usual global economic forecast.
وكان ناثان شيتس، كبير الاقتصاديين العالميين في مصرف "سيتي بنك" (CitiBank) والمسؤول السابق في وزارة الخزانة الأميركية، أكثر استعدادا لوضع تقدير تقريبي للغاية للضرر المحتمل. فقبل الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية كان من المتوقع أن يكون معدل النمو العالمي حوالي 5% في عام 2022، لكن شيتس يعتقد أنه "إذا طال أمد التوترات [الأوكرانية] أو تصاعدت أكثر، فإن التخفيضات في آفاق النمو لهذا العام قد تحتاج لأن تكون مقومة بنسب مئوية من النقاط".
وتقول الصحيفة إنه في جميع أنحاء العالم، اتخذ صناع السياسات إجراءات واتجهوا نحو نظرة أكثر قتامة للاقتصاد العالمي، فمنذ أكثر من شهر بقليل قدمت رئيسة البنك المركزي الأوروبي كريستين لاغارد رأيا متفائلا لتوقعات منطقة اليورو، مرجحة "انتعاشا قويا للنمو"، لكنها غيرت تقديراتها الأسبوع الماضي قائلة إن الأحداث الأخيرة "تشكل مخاطر كبيرة على النمو".
Concerned about rising inflation in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell initiated a series of interest rate increases, saying he "fully recognizes the need to return the economy to price stability and intends to use all available tools to do just that."
China's chief economic officer Liu He was also concerned enough about the status quo to make a rare statement last Wednesday, promising that the government would "bolster the economy in the first quarter", as well as introduce "market-friendly policies".