The change of course in the shadow of the Ukraine war is dramatic.

After 47 years, Spain is giving up its neutrality in the Western Sahara conflict.

The serious diplomatic crisis with Morocco has been going on for almost a year.

Now Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez believed he could end it single-handedly.

He's giving the Moroccan king what he's wanted for years, antagonizing all his other partners in the process.

In a letter to Mohamed VI.

the head of government not only praises the Moroccan autonomy plan for the former Spanish colony from 2007.

Hans Christian Roessler

Political correspondent for the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb based in Madrid.

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He also calls it the "most serious, realistic and credible basis for a solution to the conflict" that has been going on since 1975.

In doing so, Spain indirectly recognizes that Western Sahara is and will remain a part of Morocco.

For the Polisario Front, which is fighting for the independence of Western Sahara, and its protecting power Algeria, this is a "historic betrayal" that could have dangerous consequences: Spain gets almost half of its natural gas from the country that has been a supplier since the Russian invasion has become increasingly important.

Sánchez accused of acting 'recklessly'

So far, Spain has preferred to hide behind United Nations resolutions.

Madrid tried to keep relations with Morocco as good as possible without committing to independence or autonomy for Western Sahara.

Sánchez' social-democratic PSOE party has so far demanded a political solution acceptable to both sides in agreement with the UN.

Only his own party was still on Sánchez' side.

Everyone else accused him of abandoning the basic consensus on Spanish Western Sahara policy and confronting the opposition leader and his coalition partner with a fait accompli.

The designated PP chairman Alberto Núñez Feijóo accused him of "foolishness".

Second Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz made it clear that for Podemos the "only solution" is a referendum and the self-determination of the Saharawi people.

The left has traditionally been particularly close to the Polisario Front, which accused Sánchez of giving in to “pressure and blackmail” from Morocco.

"Sánchez owes us an explanation," demands the newspaper "El País".

His critics accuse him of going too far and getting too little for it.

The Moroccan royal family now calls Spain a "great friend and ally".

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares is due to travel to Rabat soon to prepare for a visit by Sánchez, who intends to mark a "new stage" in relations.

Nothing was known about concrete commitments from Rabat.

A statement from Madrid almost imploringly states that both sides are committed to "unrestricted cooperation in controlling migration flows in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic".

The joint fight against illegal migration was a priority for Madrid.

Migration as a Moroccan leverage

Morocco has repeatedly used migrants as a means of political pressure to persuade Spain to change its Western Sahara policy.

In early March, Moroccan border police failed to intervene when nearly a thousand migrants scaled the fences of Spain's North African exclave of Melilla.

At the same time, more migrant boats from Morocco have landed in the Canary Islands in recent months than they have in a long time.

After Spain allowed Polisario leader Brahim Ghali to travel to Spain for treatment in April 2021, Morocco allowed a good 10,000 people to cross the border to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.

At the end of 2020, Morocco had already increased the political pressure on Europeans to follow the example of US President Donald Trump, who had recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Germany, too, is no longer ruling out the possibility that the region could ultimately be an autonomous province in Morocco.

In Madrid, the collateral damage of their turning maneuver must first be limited: the leadership in Algiers feels overwhelmed, laments "submission to Morocco" and recalls the ambassador.

So far, Spain has been able to rely on Algeria – for a supply of natural gas and to stop young Algerians pushing their way across the Mediterranean to Europe.