Since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the world has not been so close to a nuclear war as it is today, so let us ask: What would a large-scale nuclear bombardment be like?

Will that be the end of the world or will it be possible for the human race to survive, but only after killing most of the people?

From these questions, the French magazine Le Point launched an article by Marc Lynas, in which he said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had hinted that he might resort to nuclear weapons if NATO responded militarily to him in Ukraine or if he faced a threat. directly to himself or his regime, and then we will be in direct confrontation between the United States and Russia, with a clear possibility of a nuclear escalation.

In his article - which was translated by Peggy Saster for the magazine - the British scientist and environmental campaigner explained that many scientists have dealt with this topic before, but their work is not widely known, perhaps because it came in times of peace, when there is little interest in what does not seem realistic, However, conditions are no longer in peace, as the shadows of nuclear clouds loom over our planet.

An inventory of current nuclear arsenals

The writer pointed out that the last assessment of the Russian military nuclear capability at the beginning of 2022 was expected that Russia possesses a stockpile of about 4,477 nuclear warheads, which is approximately 6,000 if the “decommissioned” warheads are included, while the United States maintains an arsenal Roughly equivalent to 5,500 warheads, 3,800 of which are rapidly deployable.

Although it is difficult to estimate the explosive power of these weapons, comparative estimates indicate - according to the author - that what was detonated during World War II did not exceed 3 million tons of TNT equivalent, while each A British Trident-class submarine carries 4 megatons of TNT-equivalent on 40 nuclear warheads, meaning that just one of these ships could cause more damage than what happened in the whole of World War II.


Hiroshima and Nagasaki

In 1945, the United States attacked the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atomic bombs, and gave us two concrete examples of the impact of nuclear weapons on the population, as a total of 140,000 people died in Hiroshima and 73,000 in Nagasaki immediately or within 5 months of the nuclear explosion and the intense radioactive heat emitted by Fireball and its ionizing radiation.

Many residents were charred by thermal radiation, especially those who were within one kilometer of the point of impact, and those within a 1.5 kilometer radius suffered severe burns, with large parts of their skin shedding later, and some people, especially from They were inside the buildings, into skeletons after all of their bodies were evaporated by the heat.

Some of the survivors, who were later called "Hibakusha" in Japanese, suffered from acute radiation syndrome due to neutrons and gamma rays emitted by nuclear fission during the explosions, and symptoms of this included bloody diarrhea, hair loss, fever, and severe and permanent thirst, and many of them died.

What Hiroshima and Nagasaki have shown is that, with the exception of acute radiation syndrome, radiation from radiation precipitation would be the least of our problems in the event of a nuclear war, but social collapse, famine and the destruction of a large part of the biosphere would be the most serious consequences.

Limited nuclear conflict

Before the war in Ukraine it seemed unlikely that the great powers would collide again, a study was published looking at the potential consequences of using nuclear weapons in the most populous urban areas of India and Pakistan, and it was estimated that each detonation was enough to turn 13 square kilometers into ashes, with 5 Teragrams of atmospheric soot and pollution from forest fires and buildings.

In this "limited" nuclear war scenario, direct human deaths are not quantified, but are likely to number in the tens or hundreds of millions, and the consequences for the planet are dire, because it will block solar radiation and reduce the Earth's surface temperature by 1.8 degrees Celsius within 5 years after bombing.

The devastation caused by the atomic bomb on Hiroshima (Reuters)

full-scale nuclear war

The writer reviewed an analysis of the scenario of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, in light of a study completed in 2008, which expected that Russia would launch 2,200 weapons to Western countries, and that the United States would launch 1,100 weapons to China and 1,100 other pieces to Russia, which means the launch of 4,400 warheads in bulk. , without taking into account other countries' nuclear weapons.

The study found that such a comprehensive nuclear war would lead to the death of 770 million people directly, and generate 180 teragrams of soot as a result of burning cities and forests, and would kill a fifth of the population in the United States immediately.

In another study published in 2019, envisioning a nuclear war of equivalent size, slightly lower estimates were noted, as 150 Tg of atmospheric soot, blocking 30% or 40% of sunlight in the following six months, leading to a massive drop in temperatures The temperature, to remain below freezing throughout the following summer in the northern hemisphere, literally means a nuclear winter.

Summer temperatures will remain below freezing for years, global precipitation will halve in the third and fourth years, and the planet will not return to normal for more than a decade, by which time most people are already dead, having lost food production. The world is more than 90% of its size.

In this scenario, it is likely that less than a quarter of the population will survive until the end of the second year in most countries, after the destruction of global fish stocks and the collapse of the ozone layer, especially that China will witness a decrease in food calories by 97.2%, France 97.5%, Russia 99.7% and the Kingdom The United States is 99.5% and the United States is 98.9%, so the survivors of the bombings in these countries will eventually starve to death.

A group photo of the crew of the plane that dropped the bomb on Hiroshima (Reuters)

extinction of mankind?

The results of this study indicate - according to the author - that some humans may eventually survive and rebuild the planet, and that the extinction of Homo sapiens is not expected even when a large-scale nuclear war breaks out, but most humans will suffer a very painful death as a result of burns, radiation and starvation, and civilization will collapse. humanity, and the survivors will live on a barren and devastated planet.

The writer concluded that it was this common understanding of the consequences of the nuclear catastrophe that led to the joint statement issued by then-US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 that “nuclear war cannot be won and should not be waged at all”, which was confirmed by Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in January 2022, and it's still true as the war in Ukraine rages on.