On May 13, 1940, when Winston Churchill delivered his first speech as British Prime Minister, Vienna and Prague, Warsaw, Copenhagen and Oslo had already fallen.

Hitler had been able to occupy capital after capital because France, Great Britain and the rest of the world were frozen with terror.

When Churchill rose to speak in the House of Commons, his predecessor, Chamberlain, had just fallen.

He had tried unsuccessfully to appease Hitler for a long time.

He hadn't wanted his voters to make sacrifices for a cause that many at the time still believed was not theirs.

For this reason he had long told the British, and probably himself, the comfortable fairy tale that one could tame Hitler without making great sacrifices.

Chamberlain was wrong.

Soon German tanks rolled on Paris too, and Chamberlain fell.

Now, in London, Churchill came to the pulpit and said: "I have nothing to offer you but blood, toil, sweat and tears." He was honest and he trusted that the British would accept that.

Some things are different today.

Russia is attacking Ukraine, but Kyiv has not yet fallen, and it may not fall.

Nevertheless, some things are like back then.

Experts foresaw and described Russia's war years ago.

They had read him out of Vladimir Putin's speeches and preparations, just as they now read from his ultimatums last December that his goals go far beyond Ukraine.

Everything indicates that Kyiv will not be the last capital he attacks, and that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could also be on Putin's plan of conquest.

The experts had further concluded that if NATO had to condone such conquests, it would lose credibility and collapse.

And they had come to a final warning: If that happens,

The patterns of despondency

Now Putin is attacking as predicted, and old patterns are working again.

The Western world looks on in horror, and where it imposes sanctions, it doesn't do so with the utmost consistency.

The Germans hesitated particularly violently.

Olaf Scholz may have announced a turning point, but if Germany wants to provide old anti-aircraft missiles so that Ukrainian soldiers can stop Russian bomber pilots from killing their families, Berlin does not ensure quick delivery.

And the German hesitation starts much earlier.

In the opinion of the Federal Chancellor and his partners Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner, Germany should not risk too much in the economic confrontation.

For example, it should not stop buying oil and gas from Russia.

This trade finances Putin's war, but if it failed, it would be uncomfortable for Germany.

Then, they say in Berlin, petrol will surely become even more expensive.

Then many people might lose their jobs.

Then the Germans would have to forego prosperity.

But something like that, Habeck said recently, you have to be able to get through first.

Nobody dares to tell the truth

But the federal government is not ready to go through something like this.

She doesn't think the Germans would make serious sacrifices to stop the war.

The leaders of the coalition suspect that Russia will not stop after Ukraine and that after Kyiv Tallinn may be next.

Habeck, for example, says he sees an imperialist “pattern” in Putin.

Even so, he and his associates do not trust the Germans the way Churchill trusted the British.

That's why the federal government doesn't pour its voters straight.

That is why the Bundestag ticks off a moving speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj as callously as if someone had just read the agenda.

Nobody dares to give a blood, sweat and tears speech.

They don't even dare to make a petrol and recession speech in Berlin.

It is better to promise the continued existence of the comfort zone against better knowledge.

This is not only dishonest towards the Germans.

It is also a devastating signal of despondency to Putin, precisely at a time when strength is needed.

Russia's attack is going badly.

The Ukrainians are fighting back, Putin's tanks are stuck.

Strong sanctions could perhaps stop him.

Instead, he now hears: At least you don't have to fear much from Berlin, because unlike Churchill back then, German politicians don't trust their voters with the wisdom and staying power that is needed to stop an aggressor.

Don't worry, is the signal, we won't do anything to you that could hurt us too.