How did the Russia-Ukraine conflict end? US media analyzes several possible outcomes

　　How did the Russia-Ukraine conflict end?

US media analyzes several possible outcomes

　　Reference News Network

20. On March 17, the website of the bimonthly magazine "Foreign Policy" published an article by author Esther Tetruashvili predicting several outcomes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The full text is excerpted as follows:

　　The world needs to think carefully about how Russia and Ukraine can accept ending the war — or being forced to do so.

　　Putin would seek the demilitarization of Ukraine and its inability to become a member of NATO or the European Union.

The wars in Syria and Chechnya have shown that if Ukraine does not surrender, Putin will continue to escalate, making the price for Ukraine very high.

　　A "lose-lose situation" could include Donetsk and Luhansk becoming either Russian territories or autonomous regions, while recognizing Crimea as part of Russia.

The West would need to agree to a gradual lifting of sanctions in exchange for a Russian withdrawal.

Private companies may be persuaded to do business with Russia again.

To prevent more casualties, Zelensky will agree to a ceasefire.

This will put the conflict between the two countries into a freeze, but Zelensky will maintain control of the government and Ukraine will likely join the European Union.

Ukraine will need aid to rebuild its infrastructure and economy, and with that will likely be a new purge of pro-Russian politicians, citizens and activists.

The huge refugee crisis will also be difficult to reverse, as more than 3 million Ukrainians have fled and millions more are expected to leave in the coming weeks.

　　NATO will still not consider including Ukraine, because if the latter joins, the two divided regions of eastern Ukraine will force NATO countries into an endless cycle of sending troops to Ukraine.

Russia will withdraw its troops and completely break away from the international order.

The two sides will articulate some kind of roadmap for normalizing relations, but the exact terms are unclear.

The lifting of sanctions will depend on Putin's pledge to respect Ukraine's sovereignty.

　　If Russia defeats Ukraine and establishes a pro-Russian regime, Russia will continue to be isolated from the West.

Finding alternative supply chains and self-sufficiency will again be Russia's top priority, and plans to replace U.S. monetary hegemony will accelerate.

　　Finally, we must not forget that Russia remains the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe.

In this case, concerns about energy may force Europe to divide.

　　The West now needs to start making choices that consider future possibilities.

Achieving this will require a multifaceted diplomatic effort.

Europeans need to offer Putin to lift sanctions on them in exchange for a de-escalation of the conflict and negotiate a treaty that would provide Russia with some assurances that its economic and security interests will be respected.

　　If Ukraine establishes a pro-Russian regime, the West must clarify its long-term Russia policy, including maintaining sanctions against key Russian military leaders and the energy sector.

If the Ukrainians will continue to fight and seek support from NATO and European countries, retaliatory strikes are likely.

Against this backdrop, NATO leaders need to articulate who and how they will fight.

We need to make NATO more flexible so that it can respond to new types of warfare.