Restarting nuclear power in the EU is not easy
The EU's energy transition has been discussed for a long time, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly accelerate the formulation of the EU's energy independence roadmap.
Considering the transition to clean energy as soon as possible and the search for alternatives to Gazprom, nuclear power has become an important option for Europe to achieve energy independence.
However, it is not easy for the EU to overcome the immediate energy crisis by restarting nuclear power.
In the final analysis, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not a key factor in determining whether the EU member states will stay in nuclear power. Each member state still needs to settle the transformation account, cost account and investment account.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the resulting European energy security issues have become one of the important topics of the informal meeting of the EU summit that just concluded in March.
European Commission President von der Leyen even suggested that the EU should stop using Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
About 40% of the EU's natural gas, 27% of its oil and 46% of its coal are imported from Russia. Although the EU has not yet reached a consensus on how to "gradually get rid of" Russian energy within 5 years, nuclear power, as a possible energy source development There is no doubt that the option has returned to EU policymakers from a situation that has been gradually marginalized in the context of vigorously developing clean energy.
Dawn of nuclear power policy
Nuclear power has been the mainstay of electricity generation in the EU.
According to data from Eurostat in 2022, 13 EU member states, including France and Germany, have built nuclear power plants, and nuclear power generation accounts for about 25% of the EU's total power generation.
There are a total of 109 nuclear reactors in operation in the EU, of which the largest nuclear power producer is France, whose nuclear power generation accounts for about 52% of the EU's total nuclear power generation; followed by Germany, Spain and Sweden, which together account for the EU's nuclear power generation. more than three-quarters of the total power generation.
Countries such as Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic in Central and Eastern Europe also have nuclear power plants.
In EU countries with nuclear power, nuclear power also occupies an important position in the national economy.
More than half of France and Slovakia's power generation is made up of nuclear power, accounting for 67% and 54%, respectively, Hungary and Bulgaria are about 41%, and Belgium, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic are all about 38%.
However, after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011, the momentum of the EU's development of nuclear power was slammed on the brakes. Many EU countries saw the uncontrollable danger of nuclear power plants and questioned the safety of existing nuclear power plants, reducing or suspending construction. new nuclear power projects.
At the same time, in 2019, in response to issues such as climate change, economic growth and sustainable development, the European Union launched the "European Green Deal", which promised to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The proportion increased to more than 65%.
However, the consensus of the EU is that green and clean energy does not include nuclear power, and the EU nuclear power industry has fallen to a low point.
Until the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, soaring energy prices caused inflation to intensify. In 2021, the EU's attitude towards nuclear energy has turned a corner, believing that "if the use of nuclear energy is excluded, the world will not be able to achieve the agreed carbon dioxide emission reduction targets."
In January 2022, the EU had to take a pragmatic approach and reassess its green investment strategy, announcing that nuclear power and natural gas would be reintroduced into the EU's "sustainable financing category", aiming to provide financial markets with a truly green "gold standard". Redefine sustainable investment direction.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has forced the EU to refocus on nuclear power and find a new balance between promoting the achievement of EU climate change goals, enhancing EU energy security, and helping to provide clean electricity at affordable prices.
Internal differences are hard to resolve
The EU's energy transition has been discussed for a long time, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly accelerate the formulation of the EU's energy independence roadmap.
Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some non-nuclear power countries in the EU, such as Austria, Luxembourg, Ireland, Greece and Denmark, were firmly opposed to the development of nuclear power due to the insecurity brought about by nuclear power and their dissatisfaction with the EU’s huge loans and policy support. .
Germany's attitude is to phase out nuclear power.
Germany had planned to close its last three nuclear power plants in 2022 to make way for renewables such as wind and solar, increasing the share of electricity from renewables to 46%.
At that time, it was expected that the "Beixi No. 2" natural gas pipeline could be opened, and Gazprom would ensure more than half of Germany's annual natural gas consumption, enabling Germany to complete its ambitious goal of phasing out coal power by 2038, and making Germany the largest industrial power in the West. A completely denuclearized country.
France, the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary have begun to actively adjust their nuclear power policies in response to the rising prices of fossil energy such as natural gas.
In December 2021, the Netherlands proposed that nuclear energy can effectively supplement solar energy, wind energy and geothermal energy. Through the construction of nuclear power plants, the dependence on natural gas imports is reduced, and two new nuclear power plants are planned to be built. 500 million euros of financial support will be provided for the construction of new nuclear power plants by 2025.
France has made even greater strides in developing nuclear power.
On February 11, 2022, France announced the redevelopment of its nuclear power program, with six new European pressurized water nuclear reactors to be built, the first of which is expected to be put into use in 2035.
At the same time, it will study the feasibility plan of building eight more nuclear reactors, and on the basis of ensuring safety, the service life of the existing nuclear reactors should be increased to more than 50 years. As long as safety conditions permit, the law will no longer close the existing nuclear reactors.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has added new variables to the EU's energy autonomy, allowing the EU to re-examine their energy policies from the perspective of energy "de-Russification", and ultimately determine the proportion of nuclear power in the country's energy mix, not just for environmental security and domestic green environmental protection pressure to consider "non-nuclear" or "de-nuclearization", but the differences that existed before can not be completely digested and unified by the energy independence advocated by the EU. EU member states coexist.
Still need to settle the "three accounts"
Although nuclear power and natural gas are labeled as “green labels” for market investment by the EU, the EU also stipulates that nuclear power and natural gas that meet certain conditions are “transitional” energy sources for sustainable investment.
Undoubtedly, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has allowed the EU's nuclear power to "continue its life" again. This is also the EU's helpless move to speed up the transition to clean energy and find alternatives to Gazprom. However, it is not easy to restart nuclear power to help the EU overcome the current energy crisis. thing.
Even with the addition of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict factor, Germany's denuclearization attitude has not fundamentally shaken.
In March 2022, Germany reviewed the nuclear power development project again, arguing that it is not recommended to keep the remaining 3 nuclear power plants in operation at this stage, and it is too late to retrofit the nuclear power plants that are about to close.
Hungary's attitude is completely different.
The Bakshi nuclear power plant is the only nuclear power plant in Hungary, which is responsible for nearly half of the country's electricity supply. The design period is until 2037. Therefore, Hungary has actively embarked on the reconstruction and expansion project. It has signed an agreement with Russia to build two new generating units.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Hungarian government, under great pressure, emphasized the important role of the Bokesh nuclear power plant in the country's economic development, and still insisted on handing it over to Russia for construction.
Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not a key factor in determining whether the EU member states will stay in nuclear power. If the following "three accounts" are unclear, the member states will not easily restart nuclear power.
The first is to change the account.
The "aging" problem of EU nuclear power plants is serious, and the transformation is not easy.
It is estimated that most of the nuclear power plants in the EU are about to reach the original design life. It is estimated that by 2050, 90% of the nuclear power plants in the EU will face decommissioning or renovation, and the renovation of nuclear power plants will require huge investment.
The second is the cost account.
Compared with renewable energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy that have been operating in the EU for many years, nuclear power maintenance costs and research and development costs in terms of ensuring safety performance are high, which is not economical.
The third is the investment account.
Among the EU member states, only nearly half of them use nuclear power to generate electricity. Even if some member states are interested in developing nuclear power after considering the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EU still makes the 27 EU countries share debt in the form of debts like the solution to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. If it undertakes to support the nuclear power fund, then some countries without nuclear power will certainly not support it.
If the huge capital investment cannot be solved, the nuclear power market cannot be truly activated.
Therefore, the EU can completely "close it" with Gazprom, but there is still a long way to go to achieve EU energy independence partly with the help of nuclear power.
Zhai Chaohui, our correspondent in Budapest