He asks for it at every opportunity and in every tone.
After having challenged NATO on the question, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, reiterated his request to the Western powers to establish a "no-fly zone" above Ukraine during his speech before the Congress of States. United, Wednesday, March 16.
And Washington has, again, addressed an end of inadmissibility.
For US President Joe Biden, the establishment of a no-fly zone – which would prevent Russian planes from using Ukrainian airspace to support the invasion of the country – seems to be the red line to be avoided. not cross.
Imposing such a measure must come from the United Nations Security Council, otherwise it is considered an "act of war", according to the UN charter.
Risk of World War III
Volodymyr Zelensky's insistence is understandable.
"A no-fly zone would be the best option to protect civilian populations, especially now that the Russians are starting to run out of guided missiles," said Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military issues at the London School of Economics, contacted by France 24.
Indeed, Russian planes will have to arm themselves with "unguided" bombs, which are much more likely to cause collateral damage among civilian populations.
But the West's refusal to satisfy the Ukrainian president on this point is not surprising either.
"It's geopolitically impossible for Joe Biden. Such a 'no-fly zone' would mean that NATO fighters would be allowed to destroy Russian planes to enforce the exclusion zone, while the Russians would be tempted to destroy them. aim to protect their air force. It would open the door to World War III," summarizes Jeff Hawn.
So there would be nothing to do to avoid "the Russians transforming the Ukrainian sky into a tool of death for thousands of civilians", as Volodymyr Zelenski declared before the North American elected officials?
In the era of ultra-sophisticated radars, satellite images and other anti-aircraft defense systems, such as the Israeli Iron Dome, the no-fly zone is no longer the only solution to control the skies in times of war.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, "Western countries must already share their satellite images or radar data with kyiv," said Gustav Gressel, specialist in Russian military issues at the European Council on International Relations, contacted by France 24. Ukrainian radars were probably destroyed by the Russians at the beginning of the offensive, Western countries that have very long range radars can provide the Ukrainian army with a [real-time] sky image that warns when a Russian missile is approaching, in order to better use the defense devices", adds Frank Ledwidge, specialist in air warfare issues at the University of Portsmouth, contacted by France 24.
More long-range anti-aircraft missiles
But it is far from offering the same protection as a stricto sensu no-fly zone.
If only because "the shared data is probably not the most precise that Washington could provide", estimates Gustav Gressel.
For the expert, the United States fears that Russia intercepts communications and the Pentagon has no desire for Moscow to discover the sources of their most precise satellite images.
Especially the information provided by the radars, as complete as it is, is not enough to prevent the bombs from falling from the sky.
"We must provide the Ukrainians with all the tools to protect their airspace", underlines Jeff Hawn.
"Necessary equipment that the United States has already begun to deliver is ammunition to arm Ukrainian fighters who continue to challenge the Russian air force for air superiority and to be able to continue to use anti-aircraft missiles", says Gustav Gressel.
The Ukrainians also need many more of these surface-to-air missiles.
For the moment, "they have mainly received American Stingers or British Starstreaks, missiles which are very effective at short range", notes Frank Ledwidge.
"We need more defense devices to reach aircraft at high altitudes [above 4,000 meters], from where Russian fighter bombers can drop their bombs," says Gustav Gressel.
kyiv should thus receive more S-300 missiles, "built in the Soviet era and which remain very effective in hitting long-range targets", continues the specialist of the European Council for International Relations.
Ukrainians already have them and already know how to use them.
"It's also a mobile device that's easy to hide from Russian airstrikes and can be quickly deployed as needed," Hawn said.
But it is not the Americans who are going to deliver Soviet weapons to the Ukrainians.
At least not directly.
"They can come from countries that depended on the former USSR and where stocks of these Cold War weapons are stored," explains Frank Ledwidge.
Poland, Slovakia or Hungary could thus quickly supply Ukraine.
Helping Ukrainians Defend Themselves
The West could do even more.
Some media have mentioned, across the Atlantic, the possibility of providing the Ukrainians with more elaborate anti-aircraft defense systems such as the American Patriot device.
But in this case, the best would be the enemy of the good here, according to the various experts interviewed by France 24. "These are complex systems to handle, which are, moreover, not mobile and would be easy to target for the Russian bombardments", emphasizes Gustav Gressel.
All these efforts will not completely prevent "Russian planes from flying in Ukrainian airspace", admits Jeff Hawn.
In this sense, the "no-fly zone" would be a more effective solution.
But they have several advantages over the no-fly zone.
First, by supplying arms to the Ukrainians, "the West provides them with what better to defend themselves against the Russian threat. It is important for this war, but also to be better equipped in the future", says Jeff Hawn.
And then, above all, "this aid is much less likely to trigger a third world war", concludes this expert.
It's not nothing.
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