Russia's war on Ukraine.. Which countries are most threatened by the disruption of the wheat market?

The sharp decline in Ukrainian and Russian exports threatens supplies in some countries, particularly in Africa.

In a report published by the French newspaper "Le Figaro", writer Julien da Soa says that in some countries the war in Ukraine and its consequences for wheat are viewed with deep concern, as the conflict threatens to endanger the supplies of countries that depend on imports of this basic grain.

Since the outbreak of the war, no more wheat is leaving the Ukrainian ports.

The writer quotes Sebastian Apis, director of DEMETER - a think tank specializing in agricultural issues - as saying, "In Russia, the sea flow of ships coming from the Black Sea is almost non-existent, especially because of military tensions," while the writer believes that the problem is It lies in the fact that Russia and Ukraine are, respectively, the first and fifth wheat exporters in the world, and together they represent about a third of the world's wheat exports.

Russia and Ukraine are respectively the world's first and fifth wheat exporters, and together they account for about a third of the planet's wheat exports.

The writer notes that last Tuesday, the French Minister of Agriculture and Food Julien de Normandy sounded the alarm, noting that "across the Mediterranean, many countries depend on Russian or Ukrainian wheat exports," adding that these countries are also suffering from "a terrible drought." Thus, the minister expressed his fear of a "global food crisis within 12 to 18 months."

The writer shows that Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco and even Algeria;

It is one of the countries that import large quantities of wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

But - according to the author - North Africa is not the only region in the world that closely monitors the situation in Eastern Europe;

Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, as well as the immediate neighbors of Russia and Ukraine (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Latvia and others) depend a lot on Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Africa on the front line

According to the author;

Arthur Portier, an analyst at Agritel, a company specializing in agricultural markets;

“Ukraine had 6 million tons of wheat left for export between the end of February and the end of June, so an alternative solution had to be found, not to mention a large part of the about 8 million tons of Russian wheat, which the country was planning to export during the same period,” he said. .

“We have lowered our wheat export forecast from end-February to end-June by 10 million tons for the European and global grain and oilseed markets,” says Helen Duflot, a grain market analyst at Tallage agro-economic research firm specializing in European and global grain and oilseed markets. for Ukraine and Russia.

Arthur Portier confirms that North African countries will be in a more difficult situation, noting that Egypt, as the largest importer of wheat in the world, will find itself in trouble, because the country usually imports one million tons of Ukrainian wheat on average during the period between February and June / In June, Algeria will also find itself in a critical situation, as it bought about 1.5 million tons of wheat from the Black Sea, which it was supposed to receive in the period between March and April.

The writer believes that there are other countries - especially France - competing to replace the Russian-Ukrainian basin, while Algeria seems less affected by this crisis compared to Cairo, thanks to the export of oil, whose price has reached its peak (about 120 dollars per barrel);

Therefore, these revenues give it the financial ability to purchase wheat.

The writer believes that some countries in sub-Saharan Africa should also be carefully highlighted, because - according to analyst Helen Duflo - if the availability of wheat in other exporting countries (Europe, India, Australia and others) is sufficient to meet the import needs of North Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East On the other hand, we will expect a slight impact on demand for sub-Saharan Africa."

Or in other words - according to the writer - there could be a shortage of wheat in these countries - for example in Nigeria, Cameroon and Senegal - due to low global supplies and very high prices for these developing economies.

Towards new "protests" because of hunger?

"On a larger scale, we are currently facing unsustainable prices for all importing countries," says Sebastian Apis, associate researcher at the Institute of International Relations and Strategy.

The upheaval of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is already affecting all importers, not just those who depend on Moscow and Kiev, through higher prices in the financial markets.

Apis adds that there are serious concerns in Egypt, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey and other countries of the largest importers.

The writer stated that this situation would revive the specter of popular protests due to hunger, such as the demonstrations that erupted in 2008 in several countries, mostly African;

In response to higher grain prices.

According to the writer, Arthur Portier suggests the possibility of "social unrest in wheat-importing countries," while researcher Sebastian Apis believes that "the food factor alone cannot lead to demonstrations, even if it is "central", although "these countries It is going through a deteriorating political and economic situation."

The writer says that in the long run, the outlook is uncertain, wondering what if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict falters, which may lead to disruption of the two countries' exports over time?

"We cannot do without Russia and Ukraine forever," answers Arthur Portier, noting that the next harvest in Ukraine still needs to be done.

Sebastian Apis asks, "If Ukraine is unable to harvest due to a lack of seeds, who will take responsibility?"

In this case, French Minister Julien de Normandy has confirmed that the European Union will bear the responsibility, according to the writer.