[Actually] Are those in their 40s the dynasty's stronghold?

German sociologist Karl Mannheim explains the homogeneity of generations with the concept of cohorts.

They are born at the same time, have similar social experiences, and have similar political attitudes.

Naturally, for electoral engineers, generations, along with regions, become an important unit of analysis.

'Youth' is at the center of the discourse of recent generations.

The younger generation, traditionally 'known' as the resistant, avant-garde, innovative and progressive class, is, relative to the past, supporting a party 'known' as a conservative rather than a party 'known as' as a progressive party.

Gender issues have recently become entangled, making it more difficult to generalize into traditional analytical frameworks.

In fact, according to the exit poll of the presidential election this time, the approval ratings for Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol were 36.3% and 58.7% for men in their twenties, respectively, and 58.0% and 33.8% for women in their twenties.

On the other hand, there is a generation with a strong political orientation.

It's the 40's.

In the past elections as well as last year's by-elections, he was the only one among all generations to support the Democratic Party.

This election was no different.

Today's <Actually> is the end of the presidential election, so I want to try to think about something a little more fundamental with the viewers.

The 586th generation, symbolized by the democratization movement, and the multi-layered MZ generation, who are in their 40s in the Republic of Korea who are a bridge between them.

More specifically, are those in their 40s in the Republic of Korea the perseverance of the Democratic Party?

Based on Mannheim's theory of generation as a concept of cohort, we would like to trace the political tendencies of the current 40s according to 'time fever'.

While thinking about how to analyze it, I came to the conclusion that our presidential election is being held in multiples of five years.

Since the age group changes on a 10-year cycle, people in their 40s in this presidential election would have been classified in their 30s in the 2012 presidential election, and they would be in their 20s in the 2002 presidential election.

Fortunately, all three elections were easy to analyze with a clear bilateral confrontation Pansera.

With the official vote counting data of the Election Commission, we did not know the percentage of votes received by generation except for the percentage of votes at the regional level, so we checked the exit polls at the time.

Those in their 30s, classified as Generation MZ, were allies of the Democratic Party in the 2012 presidential election when they were in their 20s.

According to the results of the exit poll, it was analyzed that 65.8% of the votes were given to Moon Jae-in at the time.

However, 10 years later, Yoon Seok-yeol's 30-something exit poll vote rate was 48.1%.

It shows the dynamism of the youth that we often speak of.

On the other hand, people in their 40s have been a strong ally of the Democratic Party since they were young.

Based on the exit poll, when I was in my 20s, I gave 59.0% to then-candidate Roh Moo-hyun, when I was in my 30s, to then-candidate Moon Jae-in 66.5%, and now I was in my 40s, and 60.5% to candidate Lee Jae-myung.

In general, the approval rate for candidates belonging to the Democratic Party and People's Power is 2:1.

From the Democratic Party's point of view, the current 40s can be a stronghold that supports them even when they get older.

Usually, the older you get, the stronger your support for a conservative party is, which is unusual in that it doesn't.

Let's look at the turnout this time.

The voter turnout by generation of the National Election Commission is officially announced about a month after the election.

It hasn't been counted yet.

We ask for your understanding that the 2002 and 2012 presidential elections used data from the National Election Commission, and this presidential election used preliminary estimates of exit polls.

In general, the older you get, the higher your voter turnout.

If you look at past elections, the turnout rate is higher among middle-aged and older people than among young people, and older people than among middle-aged and older people.

However, in this presidential election, the estimated turnout for people in their 40s is not much different from the previous turnout.

It is similar to the turnout 10 years ago when I was in my 30s.

In particular, this election is fiercer than ever, so gathering support is important, and this was true even with the expectation that Lee Jae-myung's core supporters, in their 40s, would react nimbly.

"The disappointment of the Moon Jae-in administration and the candidate Lee Jae-myung was so great that they withdrew the message that something had to be changed" (Park Seong-min, CEO of 'Min', political consulting, Hankyoreh article on March 11), "The current government is dissatisfied with the soaring real estate and the jeonse crisis, etc. People who are friendly to the government showed their concerns by not attending the vote without the power of the people” (Hee-woong Yoon, head of Opinion Live Opinion Analysis Center, Hankyoreh article on March 11), “In their 40s, because of their experiences with the Roh Moo-hyun administration, they I had very high expectations, but on the contrary, I also felt a great sense of betrayal.”

However, this is still only an 'interpretation', so it is difficult to make a conclusion.

In fact, the team tried to seek advice from several experts, but interpretation does not seem to be the realm of the facts.

We decided to leave this part up to the viewers.

What is clear is that those in their 40s were quite strong supporters of the Democratic Party through the time series data, however, it did not seem that they showed 'overwhelming cohesion' than expected in this election, which was more intense than ever.

Each generation has its own identity.

People in their 40s also have experiences that set them apart from other generations.

When I look back on the basic experiences of school days and adolescence in my 40s, when identities are created, I can feel the strong dynamism.

A generation who felt proud of Korea while watching the Seoul Olympics as a child, but also experienced national distrust in front of the Seongsu Bridge and Sampoong Department Store disaster.

The generation that was the mainstay of the 'Seo Taiji and Boys' fandom that changed the game of popular culture while receiving a harsh education during their authoritarian school days.

At the same time, the generation that opened the door to online culture through PC communication.

The generation who led the street cheering match of the Korea-Japan World Cup and made the obvious sports nationalism a venue for street festivals.

586 The generation that communicated with seniors and inherited their ideological assets, witnessed the disappearance of the movement, and even contributed to the dissolution of the movement.

A generation that put liberalism on track and enjoyed it amid the remnants of authority, nation, and ideology…

…

.

A generation in which identity is molded in the paradox and dynamics of adolescence and adolescence, and experiences that can never be matched.

There are various labels such as Generation X and Millennials, but this is probably the reason why it is difficult to describe the identity of those in their 40s with one word.

At least in this presidential election, the current 40s are somewhat deviating from the stereotype that the older they get, the more they support conservative parties and the overall turnout will increase.

Whether it is a 'sign' of change or a meaningless 'accident', now the viewers' interpretation remains.

Right now, many election engineers and the media are focusing on analyzing voters in their 20s, but what is clear is that the current 40s will inevitably become an important variable in the Korean political landscape in the long term.

As we enter an aging society, the proportion of older voters also increases, so it is highly likely to influence the election landscape.

This is the reason why the Korean election dynamics will inevitably change depending on the political choices in their 40s, whether they will remain as strong allies of the Democratic Party as always, or whether they will change their course to support the conservative party as they enter the elderly as they have always done.

Just as our politics continues to summon young people today, in the next election 10-20 years from now, won't the current generation in their 40s become the protagonists of political discourse?