This is the new specter brandished by the United States: a Russia-China military axis to put an end to Ukraine as quickly as possible.
Moscow has asked for military aid from Beijing, several American media have claimed, citing “officials” from the Biden administration.
China would have "responded", according to CNN, but without specifying in what direction.
"We are very careful about the level and form of support that China actually provides to Russia," said Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser.
The latter is due to meet in Rome on Monday, March 14, Yang Jiechi, the director of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Foreign Affairs Commission, to dot the "i" concerning the Chinese position with regard to the Russian invasion. from Ukraine.
“Limitless partnership” between China and Russia
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“We let Beijing know directly and privately that there would be consequences for any country that provides support to Russia to help it overcome the sanctions imposed by the international community,” said Jake Sullivan.
After more than fifteen days of fighting, at the end of which Russia has still not succeeded in taking control of Ukraine, a military reinforcement from China would have cause for concern for Kiev's allies.
After all, Beijing and Moscow have, over the years, strengthened their military cooperation to the point that an "alliance" between the two countries was mooted in the fall of 2021, after joint military exercises in northern China.
>> To see: "War in Ukraine: has Russia asked for military aid from China?"
Just before the start of the war in Ukraine, China had backed the idea of a "limitless partnership" in a document signed with Russia, which was seen as a signal that an anti-West front was forming. form around these two powers.
Beijing has not failed to deny outright the accusations of a military rapprochement.
"It's American disinformation," said Zhao Lijian, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, quoted by the Financial Times.
Beyond the Chinese denials, the American allegations are "surprising", affirms Zeno Leoni, specialist in international relations of China at King's College London, contacted by France 24. First, because the type of support that China could provide Russia with questions.
"The information circulating at the moment is not clear. Are we talking about operational support, arms deliveries or even equipment?", underlines Antoine Bondaz, specialist in security issues Chinese at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), contacted by France 24.
In addition, it is Russia that traditionally delivers weapons and provides military know-how to China, "and not the other way around", recalls Zeno Leoni.
Moscow has even significantly increased its arms sales to Beijing in recent years.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army "has also sought to gain operational experience in recent years by doing exercises with the Russian army", recalls Zeno Leoni.
Ammunition or drones
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But that does not mean that China would have absolutely nothing to provide to Moscow to help it.
First, "Russia is starting to run out of cruise missiles and ammunition for its fighters," says Gustav Gressel, specialist in Russian military issues at the European Council on International Relations, contacted by France 24. Two areas in which China could , in theory, to bail out the Russian war machine.
Beijing has also spent far more than Russia to modernize its forced-march army.
So much so that the Chinese military has overtaken its big Russian brother in a few areas.
"This is particularly the case in the field of drones, small combat ships or even hypersonic missile technology", lists Zeno Leoni.
Not sure that these sophisticated weapons are what Russia currently lacks the most.
"Russia seems to suffer less from a problem of technological superiority or armament than from a concern for organization, morale and communication", notes the researcher from King's College London.
At the limit, Chinese drones could "be used to support ground troops during the fighting in the city which will intensify", notes Zeno Leoni.
But it is still necessary "to have pilots who know how to handle these machines", nuance Helena Legarda, specialist in Chinese defense issues at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics) in Berlin, contacted by France 24. If the Russian soldiers have to pass weeks of getting to grips with these drones, they won't be much help in a war that Russia is seeking to end quickly.
Embarrassing China
Even for equipment that is easy to use without training, such as trucks or guns, "China has no interest in sending them to Russia", believes Antoine Bondaz.
"She strongly condemned the delivery of arms to Ukraine by Western countries, I do not see Beijing contradicting itself and doing the same with Russia", underlines this specialist in China.
“Beijing has tried since the start of the war in Ukraine to be as neutral as possible, while trying to maintain its diplomatic proximity to Russia. But by delivering arms, China would clearly choose sides, which would have a political cost. important, in particular by degrading its relations with Europe", summarizes Helena Legarda.
>> To read also: "Between Russia and the West, China faces the 'Ukrainian dilemma'"
Sending military equipment to Russia also carries a technological risk for Beijing.
“If we are talking about a drone or a missile, for example, China would surely not be happy with the idea that these advanced weapons risk ending up in the hands of Ukraine or Europe [which will thus be able to study them ]", says the Merics specialist.
It's not just China that has no interest in supplying arms to Russia.
Moscow would also have a lot to lose in this affair.
"It would be a huge admission of weakness for the Russian army because it means that it is not capable of overcoming Ukraine alone," notes Antoine Bondaz.
He would not be surprised if Washington deliberately let this information "leak" to "distill doubt in the minds of the Russian military and create a feeling of failure".
This information "also embarrasses Beijing just before the meeting between Jake Sullivan and Yang Jiechi", continues Antoine Bondaz.
The United States could seek to use its allegations of a Russian request for military assistance to "force China to officially say that it does not supply weapons to Moscow", estimates Helena Legarda.
There are then two scenarios: either China clandestinely supplies equipment to Russia and if it gets caught red-handed, it will be discredited on the international scene.
Either she thought about it, and being forced to take a position publicly, she will have more difficulty then acting otherwise.
Either way, it's a good deal for Washington.
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