When I was in charge of the exit survey, I often found it difficult to ask 'Please inform me of the results in advance'.

in the past

However, in this presidential election, the question of 'Is this kind of thing going around?' was more embarrassing.

The so-called 'chirashi' related to exit polls was more common than any other election.

There were various names, such as received text, informational text, received), and coverage information.

(For reference, requests to 'tell me in advance' are rare these days.)



Numbers don't lie, but people lie with numbers that are difficult to determine the authenticity of.

In the eyes of the exit poll officers, a specific political purpose was also revealed in the chirash of distorting or manipulating the exit poll process or details with numbers in front.



I think this is going to be a long article, so to start with the conclusion, all the gossip about exit polls on the day of the election was 'fake news'.

As far as I know as the SBS exit poll manager for this election, the three terrestrial broadcasters are talking about exit polls.

It is most accurate to check the exit poll results directly through the main broadcasts of the three terrestrial broadcasters.

I will choose a few of the chirashis I have received, do a cool fact check, and then tell you a little more about the exit investigation.


Can I know the interim tally by time of the exit poll?

The answer is "impossible"



This is a 'received message' three or four hours before the announcement of the exit poll.

I wrote in detail the difference in the percentage of votes between Candidates Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myung by time period.

Not true.



The three terrestrial broadcasters are abiding by the security agreement implementation memorandum stating, "In order to maintain the security of the exit poll and prevent violations of the Public Official Election Act, we cannot receive any form of interim status report from the investigation company on the results of the exit investigation while the exit investigation is in progress."

In addition, the contract states that "in case the investigation results are leaked externally, the investigation company shall bear 'a substantial part' of the total service amount as a penalty for breach of contract, regardless of the timing of the leakage."

From the perspective of the investigation company, fines ranging from hundreds of millions to billions of won are also a problem, but the very existence of the company can be at stake.

There was actually a case in which a parent investigation company was expelled from the exit investigation pool due to the 'super-large leak incident', which will be explained at the end of this article.

It goes without saying that the credibility of the polling company has run out.



The exit survey is jointly conducted by three partner survey companies of the three terrestrial broadcasters.

SBS's partner is Ipsos, KBS is Korea Research, and MBC is Korea Research.

Exit poll results can only be received by two or three pre-designated people, including reporters and computer administrators from the election team of each broadcasting company.

In the case of SBS, me and two people in charge of the computer receive the exit poll results.



Before the scheduled exit poll results reception time on Election Day, when I call the Ipsos representative, they will not be reached.

Very few people in charge who enter the 'headquarters' where exit survey data from three survey companies are gathered are required to leave their cell phones outside.

As well as the efforts of the three terrestrial broadcasters to increase the reliability of exit polls, Ipsos, a long-time partner of SBS and an exit poll organizer, is also making special efforts to maintain security.



In the early days of exit polls, the three terrestrial broadcasters received vote rate data by time period from partner survey companies, and the terrestrial exit survey manager went to the headquarters of the survey company to directly view the real-time data.

It seems like ten years ago.

However, there is a possibility of violating the Election Act, and the influence of the 'super-large leak incident' is large, leading to the current security regulations where the interim count is unknown.

If there is another round of 'middle count' format in another election in the future, it's 'fake news'.


Pre-voting phone survey results?

“The numbers were wrong and I didn’t receive the results in advance.”



This is an article in the form of press information.

It is unclear whether it is related to the exit surveys of the three terrestrial broadcasters or other broadcasters, but if it is about the exit surveys of the three companies, it is 'fake news'.



The overall results of the telephone survey for the correction of the three terrestrial broadcasters' early voting showed that 42.1% of Candidate Jae-myung Lee and 46.5% of Candidate Seok-yeol Yoon.

Among them, if you look at the case of early voting alone, 50.9% of candidate Lee Jae-myung versus 41.9% of candidate Yoon Seok-yeol.

To reflect this in the exit poll results, the adjusted value weighted according to the gender, age, and region of the actual early voters was 51.7% for Candidate Jae-myung Lee and 44.7% for Candidate Seok-yeol Yoon.

There are no results with a difference of 10%p.

The survey was conducted over two days, and there are no separate results corresponding to one day on seven days.

It is difficult to say exactly when the exit poll results will be delivered, but it is not 19:20.




Above all, the results of the telephone survey for pre-voting prediction were transferred to the three terrestrial broadcasters at the same time on the day of the voting along with the results of the exit survey.

This is because the three terrestrial broadcasters have agreed not to receive the results of the pre-voter phone survey in advance, as it could affect the election if the results are leaked before the end of the voting.




In addition, the 'receipts' of figures before and after the announcement of the exit poll results and 'information posts' that were circulating as the original exit poll data were all incorrect, or corrections that were not made after only reflecting the results after seeing the exit poll announcement. There were also articles that shared the previous figures and misread the exit poll results.


Can you tell me in advance?

I can't tell you, and there's no way I can tell you.

because…


Following the general election two years ago, I was in charge of the SBS election broadcast exit poll in this election.

Jiseon-do with less than three months left, maybe…

I think so.

As far as indirect work related to exit polls is concerned, at least since 2010, he has had a lot of ties to exit polls in election broadcasts.



When I was working on an exit survey, there were moments when I was annoyed in front of an appeal to authority or an appeal to recognition, saying, 'If there are various reasons, why can't you tell me the results in advance?'

(I have been contacted from various places, for various reasons, and through various networks, but recently they have almost disappeared).

In the business process at the time, it is true that there were many 'holes' where the results could be counted 30 minutes before the exit poll announcement time.



The hole was enlarged and the embankment burst, causing a major accident.

Also known as a court decision.

JTBC obtained the results of the exit polls from the three terrestrial broadcasters at the time of the 2014 local elections, and announced some of the results before the main broadcasts of the three terrestrial broadcasters.

At that time, the contents of the prosecution investigation that "JTBC even changed the graphic system of the election broadcasting by spending 10 million won a week before the election in preparation for obtaining the results of the exit poll in advance" was also known during the trial process.

JTBC corporation escaped punishment in the criminal trial, but ultimately lost the lawsuit for damages claimed by the three terrestrial broadcasters.

The Supreme Court confirmed the original judgment that JTBC should pay 200 million won each to the three terrestrial broadcasters.

The Supreme Court judged that "using the results of the investigation without prior consent was an unauthorized use of the results of the three terrestrial broadcasters' considerable investment or effort for their own business, in a way that goes against fair commercial practices or competitive order."



After this incident, the security guidelines for exit investigations were further strengthened.

It will be the things I mentioned earlier.

Only 2-3 designated recipients of the three terrestrial broadcasters can receive the results at the set time.

It is systematically impossible to receive results in advance or receive interim reports.

The investigation company involved in the JTBC case was excluded from the exit investigation pool.

The terms of the contract and the security maintenance memorandum have also been tightened, and the penalties for breach of contract have been strengthened.




Above all, leaks prior to exit polls threaten the very existence of exit polls.

For the sake of the people's right to know, a more accurate and expeditious election information delivery tool should not adversely affect the election order.



The three terrestrial broadcasters tried each, but it was wrong, and two companies versus one company tried to do it separately and together, and they ran into a limit.

After going through trial and error, the three companies formed the Korea Election Pool (KEP) in March 2010, and the exit survey of the present form has been established.



The accuracy of the exit poll results of the three terrestrial broadcasters was even praised as an art in the face of the close battle in this presidential election.

Exit surveys of the three terrestrial broadcasters are conducted only according to scientific method without any political consideration.

For accurate prediction, the Korea Broadcasting Association, which oversees the three broadcasting companies, the research company, the KEP advisory faculty, and KEP, will do its best in the future.

In the next article, we will unravel how the exit polls of the three terrestrial broadcasters came out in this election, and 'everything about the exit polls'.




The conclusion of this long article is that it is most accurate to check the exit survey with the main three terrestrial broadcasters.

Bonbang shooter!

And, as much as possible, I would like to see it as a counting broadcast of SBS 'People's Choice'.

There are less than three months left until the broadcast of the 2022 People's Choice, Local Election Counting.

We'll see you again at the branch election broadcast.