30766 votes (the difference between the first and second places in Seoul)



is a painful number for the Democratic Party of Korea.

In the unprecedented close match between the first and second place candidates, it was not until dawn that it was decided whether or not they would win.

The end result is only 0.73%p difference.

Converting this to the number of votes, it was 247,077 votes, which was a close enough match to record the smallest difference in the number of votes between the candidates who placed first and second in the previous presidential election.

The difference in votes in the Seoul area where Candidate Jae-myung Lee did not give up on his expectations until the end would be regrettable.

What made this difference?

Even if you listen to the inside story of the Democratic Party, in the end, the watershed in the victory was the Seoul vote.



So, SBS Data Journalism Team 「Eup, Myeon and Dong」 prepared three maps that visualize the difference in the vote rate of candidates Jae-myung Lee and Seok-yeol Yoon as the result of counting the votes in Eup, Myeon, and Dong.

How was the public sentiment reflected in the counting of the metropolitan area, which has the largest concentration of voters, such as Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon?

Shall we revisit this election one by one?



** Eup, Myeon, and Dong unit ballot counting results were collected from the election statistics system of the National Election Commission.


The one who decided Seoul's vote... After all, real estate?

why?

Did you bring a map of house prices in Seoul?

You're welcome.

This map, not a house price map, shows the difference in the vote rate between the first and second candidates in 425 administrative dongs in Seoul, separated by color stages.

Even if you look closely, you can easily find the deep red color of some neighborhoods in Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa.

The darker the red color, the more it means that the elected candidate, Seok-Yeol Yoon, won by a large margin.

However, if you look closely, even in Gangnam 3rd district, the place where candidate Yoon Seok-yeol won is a bit divided.

In other words, even in the same Gangnam 3 districts, if you break it down by administrative dong, the votes form a certain class. 



Especially in the neighborhood next to the Han River, candidate Yoon Seok-yeol has a clear advantage.

Typical examples include Apgujeong-dong, Cheongdam-dong, and Banpo 2-dong.

Shall we look at the numbers?

Apgujeong-dong, Gangnam-gu, and Apgujeong-dong, Gangnam-gu, led by Yoon, who was elected the most overwhelmingly, with a difference of 70.6%p in the votes, followed by Daechi 1-dong, Gangnam-gu, 63.8%p, and Dogok 2-dong, Gangnam-gu, 63.6%p.

Even so, it is safe to say that he voted for Yoon. 



If we look at the unit of voting districts, this trend is even more pronounced.

At the polling station in the high-priced apartment complex in Apgujeong-dong, Yoon received more than 90% of the votes.

It means that 9 out of 10 residents of Hyundai Apartments elected Yoon Seok-yeol.



At the 1st and 3rd polling stations in Apgujeong-dong, where the residents of Hyundai Apartments mostly vote, Candidate Yoon received 90.56% and 91.16% of the votes, respectively. It received high voter turnout rates of 90.09% and 90.32%.  


What do candidates have in common where Yoon received a high percentage of votes?

This is the most expensive neighborhood in Seoul.

Roughly, if you look at the correlation between the increase rate of the official price of Seoul in 2022 and the approval rate of candidate Yoon, it is clear that candidate Yoon's vote rate can be explained to some extent.

Seocho, Songpa, Seongdong, and Yeongdeungpo-gu’s votes and house prices are more linked.

In Seongdong, Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon at the 2nd and 4th polling stations in Oksu-dong had the highest score at 67.55% and 71.02%, respectively, and it appears that some residents of the Oksu-Gukdong Apartments, Oksu-dong Samsung Apartments, and Raemian Oksu Rivergen voted in those polling places. 




However, there are also areas where Yoon's dominance was relatively weak in Gangnam 3rd district.

Nonhyeon 1-dong, which has a large number of studio rooms and a high proportion of out-of-town residents, is representative.

Most of these neighborhoods have in common that they are located in studios, villas, and commercial districts rather than apartment clusters.



In fact, last year's 4.7 by-election also turned red in Seoul's vote.

However, in the election at that time, it was difficult to identify the exact reason because the government judged theories for various reasons, such as the country crisis and youth unemployment, in addition to the real estate issue. 


Is there a place in Gwangju where candidate Yoon Seok-yeol received 38.77% of the vote?

Candidate Jae-myung Lee also won a landslide victory in Gwangju with 84.8% of the votes.

However, even in Gwangju, if you look at each administrative dong and polling place, you can see some unexpected areas.

This is where the People's Power candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's voter turnout is unusual.

In Gwangju, Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon received only 12.7% of the vote, but it is different from Bongseon 2-dong, Nam-gu, and Hak-dong, Dong-gu.

In Bongseon 2-dong, Nam-gu, candidate Yoon received 21.9 percent of the votes, and in Hak-dong, Dong-gu, 19.3 percent.

This figure far exceeds the Gwangju average voter turnout rate.

However, this neighborhood also has one thing in common: it is an area boasting high house prices in Gwangju. 



Let's take a closer look at Bongseon 2-dong, which is called 'Daechi-dong' in Gwangju.

At the 5th polling place (Bulo Elementary School) in Bongseon 2-dong, candidate Yoon recorded a high rate of votes of 38.77%.

The polling place is a smaller unit than the administrative dong, and most of the high-priced apartments near the 5th polling station in Bongseon 2-dong have an actual transaction price of more than 1 billion won, exceeding the median price of apartments in Seoul.



Hak-dong, Dong-gu is also home to Mudeungsan I-Park, which is representative of the 'Daejangju' apartment complex in Gwangju.

Hak-dong is divided into the 1st and 2nd polling stations. At the 1st polling station, candidate Yoon received only 13.6% of the vote, but at the 2nd polling station where the majority of the residents of Mudeungsan I'Park voted, candidate Yoon recorded 28.1%.

The only thing in Gwangju where Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating was high was that the two neighborhoods had a very distinct feature in common with high-priced apartments.


Gyeonggi-do votes different on the outside and on the inside?

Gyeonggi-do is where Lee Jae-myung's strength was predicted even before the election because he served as Seongnam Mayor and Gyeonggi Governor for a long time.

In fact, even if you open the ballot box, Candidate Jae-myung Lee with 50.94% and Candidate Seok-yeol Yoon with 45.62%, a difference of 466,810 votes.

To sum up the votes in one word, it was 'Gyeonggi-do with a different exterior and interior'.



Candidate Jae-myung Lee had a high approval rate in administrative dongs belonging to Goyang-si, Namyang-ju, Guri-si, Seongnam-si, and Siheung-si, which are adjacent to Seoul, but on the contrary, in the outskirts of Gyeonggi-do, Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's vote rate was higher.



In Gyeonggi-do, which is a political base, the failure of Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol to win by a large margin is considered to be a factor in this defeat.

Candidate Jae-myung Lee did not have a district like Gangnam 3-gu, which gave Yoon Seok-yeol an overwhelming vote.

Candidate Yoon was outdone the most in Baegot 1-dong, Siheung-si, with a difference of only +24.6%p.



However, Seongnam City, where Lee had served as mayor for a long time, gave full support to Lee.

Candidate Lee received the highest votes in most administrative dongs in Seongnam, including Sinheung 1-dong (60.07%), Jungwon-gu, Seongnam-si (59.72%), and Sangwon 3-dong, Jungwon-gu, Seongnam (60.2%).



On the other hand, the regions where candidate Yoon Seok-yeol received the highest votes were Geumsa-myeon, Yeoju-si, Gyeonggi-do (68.7%), Jeongja 1-dong, Bundang-gu, Seongnam (66.9%), and Jungang-dong, Gwacheon-si (63.2%). 


What is the voting barometer Incheon?

Songdo New Town chose Yoon Seok-yeol

Incheon Metropolitan City is clearly differentiated from East and West.

In administrative dongs, including Ganghwa-gun, where most of the islands belonged, Candidate Seok-yeol Yun had the highest advantage. Representatively, Seodo-myeon, Ganghwa-gun (74.4%), Bukdo-myeon, Ungjin-gun (70.1%), and Jawol-myeon, Woongjin-gun (69.6%) were in order. Gyeyang 3-dong, Gyeyang-gu (56.3%), Wondang-dong, Seo-gu (55.9%), and Bupyeong 5-dong, Bupyeong-gu (55.4%) recorded the highest percentage of votes.

Incheon has traditionally been conservative in island areas such as Ganghwa-gun and Ungjin-gun, while Unseo-dong, located next to Incheon International Airport, and inland areas have relatively distinct characteristics. 



However, after the Moon Jae-in administration, the new Songdo city began to move into apartments in earnest, and this vote showed the exact opposite.

In the 19th presidential election, Moon Jae-in received more votes than the second-place candidate in Songdo 3-dong, +22.8%p, Songdo 2-dong 19.6%p, and Songdo 1-dong +18.8p.

But what about this election?

He is the only candidate in the Incheon inland area to become the first candidate to lead Yoon's turnout.

Unlike before, Candidate Yoon won with a large gap in Songdo New Town, including +15.6%p in Songdo 2-dong, +13.9%p in Songdo 4-dong, +11.2%p in Songdo 1-dong, and +10.5%p in Songdo 5-dong. 



(Writing/Composition: Bae Yeo-Woon / Design: Ahn Jun-Seok / Data: Kang Dong-Yong)