Russian academic: Putin's threat to use nuclear is a hoax

Russian writer Olga Oleker, a professor of Eurasian and European studies, rules out Russian President Vladimir Putin's use of nuclear weapons, saying it is a ploy to serve many purposes in Russia's war in Ukraine.

And she explains in

Affairs" website

that there has never been a war in the world that was launched against the background of a situation threatening the use of nuclear weapons, as Putin is currently doing.

She said that the fear of some Western analysts and observers about Putin's actions is justified.

When the leader of a nuclear-armed country indicates his willingness to use nuclear weapons, it deserves to be taken seriously, especially when the threats come from a man who controls the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, and at the same time carries out a comprehensive and unjustified military invasion of a neighboring country, adding that Putin Strong, combative and "obviously not interested in casualties".

No nuclear weapon is needed to defeat Ukraine

However, Oleker believes that Russia does not need weapons of mass destruction to defeat Kyiv, and even if it did, detonating these weapons would trigger international retaliation, including, most likely, direct military intervention from NATO.

This risks a full-scale conventional war and further nuclear escalation, an outcome that Putin does not want.

Rather than seriously considering nuclear strikes, she added, Putin is likely using the nuclear threat as a cover for increasingly brutal tactics on the ground and pressure on Kyiv to surrender. Ukraine to submit.

It noted that these targets of the threat have failed so far;

Kyiv and its backers held firm, but wisely avoided escalatory language.

It called for continuing to do so, because although the risk of nuclear escalation may be low, it is real, and the risk of nuclear war may increase in particular if NATO forces become directly involved in the invasion, because Russia believes that a war with NATO will threaten its sovereignty and existence.

The West should be careful

The writer also said that Western powers should continue to assist Ukraine with the aim of persuading Moscow to reverse course and reach a negotiated settlement with Kyiv that guarantees Ukraine's security.

"However, as Western countries discuss new weapons provisions and methods of engagement, they must be aware of the risks and avoid provoking Russia to the point of forcing it to use a nuclear weapon."

She stated that the use of nuclear weapons would not serve any military purpose other than shock and deterrence, adding that Putin currently does not face any serious threats to his authority, and Russia is not losing on the battlefield.

Despite the great Ukrainian resistance, the Russian army continues to advance slowly in the main cities of Ukraine, and maintains a formidable conventional fighting force capable of destroying both military and civilian targets.

Nuclear use will not protect Russia

And if Russia faces defeat, says Oleker, a nuclear strike might force Ukraine to compromise, but that is unlikely to ultimately protect Russia or help Putin and his allies stay in power.

Instead, the radioactive fallout from the attack would extend hundreds of miles, if not more, including Russia itself and NATO countries.

In doing so, Putin is risking his domestic status, because the mass poisoning of the population at large is not a recipe for political success.

The writer expressed her belief that in the current situation, the nuclear position declared by Putin is only aimed at deterring direct Western intervention in the fighting, including the defense of Ukrainian airspace by imposing a no-fly zone, or forcing Kyiv to make concessions. at the negotiating table.