American experts: Putin's defeat depends on this assumption

Washington

- With the battles in Ukraine entering its third week, and the Russian forces continuing to advance from several axes in an attempt to control the capital, Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of waging an economic war on his country, while his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov promised to continue the military operation.

The talks - which brought together the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, in the southern Turkish city of Antalya - did not lead to any progress towards a ceasefire, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to pressure the West to impose a no-fly zone over his country or provide it with advanced fighters.

In this context, Al Jazeera Net interviewed two experts in international relations and security affairs, about the consequences of the war and its expected time scope, at a time when the objectives of the Russian military operation in its practical and operational aspect within Ukrainian territory are not yet clear.

A quick victory was not achieved

“The Russians expected a quick victory, and after the initial failure of their campaign, they are now turning to tactics that focus on terrorizing civilians rather than simply trying to defeat the Ukrainian army, or seize government buildings,” says Susan Hannah Allen, a professor of international relations at the University of Mississippi.

According to Allen - a specialist in security and strategic affairs - the Russian military leaders find themselves in a difficult situation after the experience of the past two weeks revealed that their expectations about the difficulty of the task in Ukraine were incorrect.

The American expert points to increasing reports of low morale among the Russian soldiers, as they were not ready for the tasks that were asked of them, and they thought that the Ukrainians would be happy to see them, and the reality was the opposite.

For his part, Professor of International Relations at the University of North Carolina, Professor Navin Babat, considered that strict sanctions on Russia put Putin in a difficult position in which he needs to win quickly or face a shortage of cash.

It also imposes significant costs on his people and on his circle of allies.

War and Peace Studies expert Babatt believes that what Putin is hoping for is the rapid disarmament of Ukraine and the installation of a government loyal to him, which would quickly end the conflict.

Experts believe that Putin's war on Ukraine gave NATO countries a sense of the power of common interests (Al-Jazeera)

Bringing life back to NATO

The American expert, Allen believes that the Russian president misread the strength of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in view of its weak reality during the years of former President Donald Trump's rule, as the alliance knew many doubts about its missions and the feasibility of its survival, to the extent that Trump considered it from the past, in When French President Emmanuel Macron referred to him as the "clinically dead" alliance.

She explains: Hence, Putin's nuclear threats fit this argument, adding, "It is ironic that Putin's attack on Ukraine gave the European Union and NATO a sense of the power of common interests greater than what was the situation a decade ago, and instead of destroying the existing order in the post-war period. World War II, Putin's actions may strengthen the status quo in the long run.

She also says, "It is clear that Putin underestimated the unity, strength, and severity of the American and European responses to the military operation. During the Trump years, many questions were asked about the importance of NATO, and the strength of relations between the countries of the alliance, and this crisis showed that European and American policymakers still have Similar visions and a high degree of readiness to work together to confront common threats.

The security expert believes that Putin has greatly underestimated the willingness and ability of his US counterpart Joe Biden to work with European leaders, and equally underestimated the willingness and ability of European leaders such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, or the French President, to work together and act decisively.

Prolonging the fight costs a lot

Regarding the sanctions imposed on Moscow, Allen adds that Western sanctions can limit the amount of actions that Russia may take as long as the West remains in a good state of coordination and working together.

Professor Babatt also believes that the pledge of sanctions did not deter Russia from attacking Ukraine, although it is likely that Putin has misjudged the position of the Europeans, as the European market is the largest for his exports of oil and gas, which are crucial to the Russian economy.

He also believed that he would be able to transact with European banks and continue to use the SWIFT system for money transfers.

With the Europeans joining the American efforts to impose sanctions, especially Germany, and working together to isolate major Russian financial institutions, "this would cause a significant loss of financial revenues for Moscow, which would make it difficult to continue its war operations."

Fears of a European dilemma in providing alternatives to Russian energy after the end of the Ukrainian war (Reuters)

Post-fight dilemma

The two experts believe that the war united the positions of Western countries towards condemning Russian aggression, imposed sanctions on Moscow, and provided a lot of aid to Kiev.

The security expert believes that if NATO countries begin to favor their narrow interests, especially with regard to their energy relations in Russia, the impact of sanctions will diminish.

But Professor Babat explained that once the war ends and the fighting stops, the Europeans will face a critical situation between continuing dependence on energy imports from Russia, and the need to work on creating a new infrastructure independent of Moscow.

In the face of these alternatives, the American expert believes that Putin is gambling that the Europeans will continue to deal with him, and evidence of this is that there are no European sanctions on the Russian oil sector so far.

However, Babatt adds that if the war continues for several months and possibly years, European countries may start looking seriously for an alternative to Russian energy sources, and sanctions will put pressure on Moscow, which will affect Russia's foreign exchange reserves of US dollars and European euros.