Russia's war on Ukraine... Expectations of a 20% increase in global food prices and warnings of imposing restrictions on exports

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday that global food and feed prices could rise by 8-20% as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, which would lead to a jump in the number of malnourished people around the world. .

In an initial assessment of Russia's war on Ukraine, the FAO said it was not clear whether Ukraine would be able to reap the harvest if the conflict was protracted, with uncertainty also surrounding Russia's food exports.

The FAO said that Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world, while Ukraine came in fifth place, and together they provide 19% of global supplies of barley, 14% of wheat supplies and 4% of maize, which constitutes more than a third of global grain exports, and they are also major Exporters of edible oils, wheat prices jumped to their highest level in 14 years.

Meanwhile, German Agriculture Minister Jim Ozdemir stressed today, Friday, that global food markets must remain open without restrictions on exports to ensure supplies to poor countries, especially after the war on Ukraine raised prices and scarce supplies.

"The markets must remain open," Özdemir told German broadcaster ZDF.

Escalation of the global food crisis

The global food crisis - triggered by Russia's war on Ukraine this week - has escalated with restrictions on food exports by a growing group of major producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders.

Ozdemir was speaking before a meeting of the agricultural ministers of the Group of Seven major countries hosted by Germany today to discuss the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on global food security, and Germany is currently holding the presidency of the Group of Seven.

"We must make sure that grain is available fairly and at reasonable prices," he added.

Global grain importers have been hit by price hikes after the sudden halt in exports from Ukraine and a sharp drop in Russian supplies following the war that closed ports.

Özdemir expressed concern about the impact of high prices and tight supplies on the world's poorest countries, including the disruption of food aid shipments provided by the World Food Programme, the United Nations humanitarian aid organization.

"Many countries depend on supplies from Russia and Ukraine, for the World Food Program it is more dangerous, as 50% (of supplies) come from both countries," he said.

Ukraine war will lower global growth forecasts

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the war in Ukraine and massive sanctions on Russia had slashed global trade, sharply raised food and energy prices, and would force the fund to cut its global growth forecast next month.

The Fund already lowered its economic forecasts for the United States, China, and the global economy as a whole last January, citing risks associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, rising inflation, supply disruptions, and tightening US monetary policy.

At the time, he expected global economic growth to record 4.4% this year, down 0.5 percentage points.

Georgieva told reporters that the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia over its war on Ukraine had caused a sudden contraction of the Russian economy, and that the country would face a "deep recession" this year.

She added that Russia's default on its debt was no longer considered "unexpected".

In a separate interview with CNBC, Georgieva said that the Fund still expects the global economy to remain on a positive path, but the duration of the war will play a very important role in determining growth and the future of multilateral cooperation.

She added that she expected that the build-up of pressure on Russia to end the Russian war on Ukraine would have repercussions on economies around the world, including China.

She stated that the increase in inflation resulting from the war means that the current monetary tightening in many countries will be "faster and greater" than expected.

She stressed that it will also have serious repercussions on the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean and some countries in the Middle East, such as Egypt and many countries in Africa.