What do you think of the economic growth target of around 5.5% in 2022? Can it be achieved?

　　What do you think of the economic growth target of around 5.5% in 2022?

Can it be achieved?

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 8th

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Han Jie, Xie Xiyao, Yu Jiaxin, Liu Hongxia

　　GDP growth of about 5.5% - In this year's government work report, once the expected economic growth target was unveiled, it attracted great attention at home and abroad.

　　"This is a challenging goal." Some foreign media commented.

　　Economic growth goals guide the direction of development.

How do you think about the expected target of around 5.5%?

How to achieve?

　　It is crucial to clarify these issues of public concern.

Why is it set at around 5.5%?

　　At present, the global epidemic is still ongoing, commodity prices fluctuate at a high level, the external environment is more complex, severe and uncertain, and the domestic economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations.

　　Under the complicated situation, some foreign media believe that China's economic growth target of about 5.5% has been set high, and China's economic prospects are "not optimistic."

　　How do you view the expected growth rate target for this year?

　　For the setting of this goal, the government work report pointed out that the main consideration is to stabilize employment, protect people's livelihood and prevent risks, and it should be linked with the average economic growth rate in the past two years and the requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan".

"This is a medium-to-high-speed growth on a high base, which reflects the initiative."

　　"It is more scientific and reasonable to set the expected economic growth rate this year at about 5.5%." Xiang Dong, deputy director of the State Council Research Office, said that this is in line with my country's potential growth level at this stage, and will help guide expectations, boost confidence, and condense develop consensus.

　　In 2020, considering the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the government work report did not mention a specific target for economic growth, and the actual growth rate of my country's economy was 2.3%.

In 2021, the government work report put forward a target of more than 6%, and finally achieved a growth of 8.1%, with an average growth of 5.1% in the two years.

　　"Appropriately adjusting the growth rate target on a high base this year is in line with reality." Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that the expected target setting should not only look at the current year, but also consider the base of the previous year, and also consider the follow-up sustainable development. Avoid highs and lows between years.

　　Yao Yang, Dean of the National Development Institute of Peking University, estimates that the potential growth rate of China's economy is still between 5.5% and 6%. The average economic growth rate in the past two years was mainly due to the epidemic that did not reach 5.5%. This year's target setting is closer to the potential growth level.

　　In 2021, China's total economic volume will exceed 114 trillion yuan. On this basis, if it achieves a growth of 5.5%, the corresponding annual economic growth will be ranked among the top 20 in the world in terms of economy.

　　The New York Times published an article saying that although China's economic growth target of about 5.5% has been lowered from the past, it is still higher than that of most countries, which can boost confidence amid global uncertainty.

Can the target of around 5.5% be achieved?

　　Some foreign media said that when China set its economic growth target for this year, it underestimated the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the economy.

Such concerns partly underscore the challenges facing China's economy.

　　"The recovery of consumption and investment is slow, the difficulty of stabilizing exports has increased, and the supply of energy and raw materials is still tight."

　　The government work report fully estimates the problems and challenges facing this year's development, and believes that the target of about 5.5% "requires hard work to achieve."

　　The pressure challenge is unprecedented, but it does not mean that the goal is difficult to achieve.

　　"Faced with new downward pressure, stable growth must be placed in a more prominent position." The government work report pointed out.

　　Macro policies should be stable and effective, micro policies should continue to stimulate the vitality of market players, structural policies should focus on smoothing the national economic cycle, and science and technology policies should be solidly implemented... A series of policy combinations should form a favorable environment for stable growth:

　　The scale of fiscal expenditure has increased by more than 2 trillion yuan compared with last year. It is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments. It is expected that the annual tax rebate will be about 2.5 trillion yuan, and the investment in the central budget will be 640 billion yuan. A series of hard measures will be exchanged. into a strong synergy conducive to stable growth.

　　"Although the environment it faces is not optimistic, China still has enough policy space to support stable economic growth." said Raizer, director of the World Bank's China Bureau.

　　Recently, the international oil price has exceeded the US$110 per barrel mark, and the prices of coal, natural gas and iron ore have also remained high.

Some foreign media worry that the continued high global inflation will bring new challenges to China to ensure stable supply and stable prices.

　　Hu Zucai, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, responded that China's economy is resilient, has a large market space, and has a rich policy toolbox. We are confident that prices will continue to run smoothly.

　　"The Chinese economy has the confidence to withstand the downward pressure and achieve the expected goals." Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that under the century-old changes and the epidemic of the century, the Chinese economy has shown strong resilience and stamina, as well as the vitality and anti-risk capabilities of market players. , which is the confidence and foundation for striving to achieve the goals and tasks of the whole year.

What should I do to complete the annual goals and tasks?

　　Focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, focusing on stabilizing market players and ensuring employment, unswervingly deepening reforms, and in-depth implementation of innovation-driven development strategies...

　　Open the government work report, through nine aspects of work deployment, and strive to complete the "construction drawings" of the year's goals and tasks are clear.

　　Promote the implementation of major decisions to be effective, and stabilize the macroeconomic market——

　　Lin Yifu, Honorary Dean of the National Development Institute of Peking University, believes that this year's economic growth is likely to be "low before and then high". There is still room for my country's active fiscal policy. By supporting new infrastructure, green development, rural revitalization and other fields, it will be further released. demand potential.

　　Strengthen the overall coordination of various policies and anchor the direction of high-quality development——

　　Bai Chongen, Dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, said that it is necessary to implement the innovation-driven development strategy, accelerate the development of the modern industrial system, promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic system, and maximize the role of innovation as the primary driving force for development.

　　Focus on effectively coping with risks and challenges, and coordinating development and safety——

　　Some foreign media worry that increasing policy support may lead to negative effects.

　　Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, responded that we should not engage in "flooding"-style strong stimulus and focus on precise, effective and sustainable policies, which can effectively avoid negative effects such as declining investment returns, excess capacity and asset bubbles.

　　The more difficult it is, the more we must strengthen our confidence and work hard.

　　"Our country is still in a period of strategic opportunities for development." Li Daokui, director of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, believes that my country has the advantage of a super-large market, huge potential for urbanization and economic geography, and hundreds of millions of people are looking forward to a better future. The people who live and work hard for it are the greatest confidence for the long-term economic growth.

　　In the first two months, the import and export of goods trade increased by 13.3% year-on-year, the power generation increased by about 6.7%, and the railway loading and freight volume increased rapidly... This spring, the fields and factory parks are busy in the north and south of the river.

　　Based on the new development stage, complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept will accelerate the construction of a new development pattern.

As long as the whole country works together and overcomes difficulties, the Chinese economy has the confidence to achieve the goals and tasks for the whole year and make steady progress along the path of high-quality development.