Could the Kremlin have chosen the wrong moment to invade Ukraine?

For several days, images of Russian tanks stuck in the mud have been multiplying on social networks.

In the caption, one word keeps coming back: "raspoutitsa".

Well known in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, the "raspoutitsa" or "the weather of bad roads" refers to the thaw that occurs in spring, which transforms flat land soaked in autumn rains into veritable pools of mud.

Traditionally, the phenomenon occurs around mid-March, during snowmelt in the spring, or heavy floods in the fall.

But this year, Eastern Europe experienced a particularly mild and humid month of January, favoring the early appearance of this sticky mud, dreadful for military vehicles.

#Ukraine


Historical reminders: the thaw generates a mud season (Rasputitsa) which lasts 3-4 weeks, and goes up from the South (Crimea) to the North in a few days to Belarus.


In 1942, it started around 3/21


In 1943, 3/18


In 1944, 3/17


(Dates according to KTB) pic.twitter.com/HYskTILDot

— cedric mas (@CedricMas) March 5, 2022

The difficulties for Russian troops to advance on these muddy terrains seem to be concentrated in the east and north of Ukraine.

According to military experts, this climatic phenomenon would partly explain the erratic progress towards Kiev of the immense column of Russian armor seen on satellite images.

"There have already been many situations in which Russian tanks and other vehicles passed through the fields and were blocked. The soldiers were forced to abandon them and continue on foot," says the Ukrainian military analyst Mykola Beleskov interviewed by AFP.

"This problem exists, and it will get worse," adds the researcher.

A major asset for Ukraine

Vladimir Putin's Russian army is not the first to suffer the icy embrace of the rasputitsa.

In 1812, Napoleon's troops were delayed in their progress towards Moscow during the Russian campaign because of this phenomenon.

But it was especially during the Second World War that the rasputitsa played an important role.

Between June and December 1941, Nazi Germany launched Operation Barbarossa to invade the USSR.

However, Adolf Hitler's plans were thwarted by the state of the soil and the Wehrmacht's progress was considerably slowed down, contributing to the Third Reich's first military defeat.

Similarly, the Red Army's counter-offensive was slowed down by this "bad road season" in Eastern Europe during 1943.

The German army had suffered rasputitsa during the Second World War.

This had slowed their progress during Operation Barbarossa at the end of the winter.

pic.twitter.com/Qx7kx9ZGni

— Restitutor Orientis (@RestitutorOrien) January 19, 2022

On the eastern front, "if the large mechanized operations were almost completely stopped during the heavy autumn rains or during the spring thaws because of the famous rasputitsa, the mud of the Russian plains, they resumed in winter, when the soils had hardened again,” explained historian Laurent Henninger in the magazine Défense nationale in 2015.

>> To read on France24.com: War in Ukraine: female resistance

According to General Dominique Trinquand interviewed by France 24, Vladimir Putin launched his offensive at the end of February in the hope of bringing down Ukrainian power in a few days and avoiding the thaw, synonymous with hampering the advance of the troops.

"However, the initial 'Blitzkrieg' [lightning war] did not work. Today, the operations come up against an extremely effective Ukrainian defense and the 'rasputitsa' considerably hinders the maneuver of the Russian troops", explains the expert in military strategy.

Unable to move on muddy terrain, Russian vehicles are forced to advance in column on roads.

However, in the event of an attack or supply problems, which have been numerous since the start of the Russian offensive, the entire column must come to a standstill, making it vulnerable to attacks from drones and Javelin rocket launchers.

"Furthermore, since Russian troops cannot leave the main roads, they cannot completely encircle the towns. They therefore only have specific points of attack. This favors the defenders, especially when the latter use light means and have a good knowledge of the terrain", analyzes General Trinquand.

"A stalemate" in the Kiev region

Under these conditions, will the salvation of the Russians come from the air?

Nothing is less certain, because the theoretical superiority of the Russian air force has been slow to translate into facts since the beginning of the attack.

Several reasons have been put forward to explain this paradox: poor coordination on the part of the Russian general staff, fear of the Stinger missile launchers supplied by the United States or even restraint in the use of the air force to avoid a too many civilian casualties and material damage.

"In the south, the Russian steamroller will eventually fulfill its missions", predicts Dominique Trinquand.

"On the other hand, in the Kiev region, there is a stalemate. But time is against President Putin. The more time passes, the more difficult it will be for him to achieve his objectives."

>> See also: War in Ukraine: the strategic port of Odessa in the crosshairs

According to a Pentagon report released on Tuesday, between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives since the start of the offensive and several hundred vehicles have been destroyed or seized by the Ukrainians.

Faced with the exorbitant cost of the war, the Kremlin could therefore be led to negotiate without having taken the capital.

At a press conference, the spokeswoman for Russian diplomacy, Maria Zakharova, said on Wednesday that Russia was not seeking to "overthrow the government" of Ukraine.

A notable change in tone after several weeks of threats made against Volodymyr Zelensky and "his clique of drug addicts and neo-Nazis".

At the same time, the Ukrainian president said he was ready to find a compromise on the status of the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine during an interview with the American television channel ABC.

Concessions that suggest a slim hope of a ceasefire, while a meeting is scheduled for Thursday in Turkey between Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers.

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