Two demands from Ukraine rejected... America faltering
What Ukraine, alone in a brawl against giant Russia, is asking of America and Europe is relatively clear.
The first requirement is to establish a no-fly zone, and the second is to ask for a MiG that Ukrainian pilots can use.
As the Russian army, stuck in a stalemate in the ground war, responded with ruthless bombardment and shelling, the civilian casualties increased astronomically, and they are asking for practical help.
Even when I went to cover the anti-war rally held by Ukrainians in front of the White House, the establishment of a no-fly zone was a top priority requirement, and people were all shouting "Biden make a decision".
I can vividly remember that former Deputy Defense Minister Florova, as well as Ukrainian lawmaker Vasilenko whom I interviewed so far, raised their voices that the establishment of a no-fly zone was urgent.
However, the United States had a negative stance on the establishment of a no-fly zone from the beginning.
It could provoke Russia into a bigger war.
In fact, Biden imprinted in people's minds over and over again that 'World War' would ensue if Russia and the United States clash, even if no one asked first.
The no-fly zone was first established when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991, and after that, even in the Bosnian War in 1993, with the UN's consent, NATO established a no-fly zone.
After that, it was often introduced to prevent conflict from escalating.
However, even if they draw a line that cannot be crossed in children's fights, a notorious neighborhood gangster like Russia is fighting, so even the United States and NATO are hesitant and unable to speak.
The United States' immediate rejection of Poland's offer of miGs to the United States is enough to create an image of a 'weak America'.
Poland, a country with a huge influx of refugees, fears that it is its next turn and hopes that Ukraine does not fall.
However, the Russians were noticing, and they were trying to take the method of sending MiG aircraft directly to the United States to support the United States.
Both of Ukraine's demands were rejected after Russia's threat that 'if other guys help out, you too will be considered as one group and we will go to war'.
I'm worried that Russia will now threaten to consider the arms-supplying country as a bundle.
Even a rioter becomes more violent when he thinks his threats are working.
Putin in the bog, what's left of Russia's nuclear attack?
The Russian fight was also a mess.
I thought it was the best fighting country in the world, but that skill was fully revealed.
Putin knew Ukraine too funny, and made a mistake by thinking that he could win in an ultra-short battle by shocking and terrifying.
A compromise has to be made on the right line, but Putin, drowning in the image of a strong man, wants to somehow bring his opponent to his knees.
Russia is also ruined in the process, but putin has his eyes turned upside down now.
His most shocking scene was the bombardment of a nuclear power plant.
If this had exploded, it could have been a global catastrophe.
An interview with former NATO ambassador Kurt Volker about the recent crisis in Ukraine helped a lot to sort things out.
He served as the State Department's special representative for Ukraine negotiations and negotiated directly with Russia as well as Ukraine.
He still interacted with Ukrainian dignitaries and was familiar with the atmosphere inside.
He summarized the main points of his interview in a question-and-answer format.
Q) Recently, Russian forces attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine.
How did you see this attack?
= It was a very dangerous act.
The Zaporiza power plant is one of the largest nuclear power plants in the world.
There may have been massive explosions and radioactive leaks.
It could have happened ten times more than the Chernobyl disaster.
Not only Ukraine, but Europe as a whole could be in great danger.
You have to realize that it is really urgent to force Putin to stop doing this.
Even with the Russians taking control of the nuclear power plant, and aiming a gun at the Ukrainians, they continue to keep the nuclear power plant safe.
That would be very disappointing.
We are not out of danger yet.
Moreover, Ukraine has more nuclear power plants.
As Russia attempts to take over all of Ukraine, such an attack is likely to happen again.
Q) Is there any possibility that Russia will attack nuclear power plants instead of nuclear ones?
= No possibility can be ruled out.
Putin has entered the path of an irreversible war.
But the Russian military is not doing well.
More than 9,000 people have already been killed, and more than 200 tanks have been destroyed.
Ukraine is determined to defend its homeland and is actually doing well.
The more Putin sees his army failing, the more desperate he will become.
That's why he bombards civilians indiscriminately and even conducts assassination operations on mayors of major cities.
It is conceivable enough that Putin could attack a nuclear facility and try to create a 'dirty bomb' (combining a radioactive material with a bomb) or actually use a tactical nuclear warhead.
All of this is conceivable, it just shows how dangerous Putin is and we really need to stop him.
Q) Does that mean that you think you will actually use a nuclear weapon attack?
= Yes.
Conventional military action is failing.
Ukraine could actually defeat the Russian army.
That way, Putin thinks he could actually use nuclear weapons.
Again, this is something we have to stop.
We need to communicate that we will never tolerate the use of nuclear weapons.
Putin's Calculation Mistakes... "Still, I want victory at any cost."
Q) Many people did not expect such an all-out war.
Why did you start such a careless war?
= I didn't expect such an all-out war.
I thought it would provoke enough to seize a certain territory of Ukraine.
It is the eastern region of Russia on the Crimean Peninsula.
However, advancing to Kiiwu is too difficult and destructive.
I can think of two reasons for doing this.
First, I made a calculation mistake.
They thought this war was easy.
They gave only two or three days' worth of food and fuel to the soldiers and sent them to the battlefield.
So a lot of military equipment was abandoned on the road.
So the soldiers are running away, raiding private houses and looting shops.
Because they need food.
So now we are at a deadlock.
Russian troops are clamoring for resupply.
The second is that Putin has a firm goal to build a Russian empire.
This is not a concern about NATO expansion or military threats posed by Ukraine's accession.
It just has to do with Putin's ideals.
Ukraine is not an independent state, it is merely a vassal state under Russian rule.
That's what made this war.
Q) Russia is using weapons prohibited by the Geneva Conventions.
Why are you even using such illegal weapons?
= He wants victory at any cost.
I don't think this reflects what the Russian people want or what the Russian government wants.
Now some Russian intelligence agencies and even government-owned companies see this as crazy.
He is destroying Ukraine, but he is also destroying Russia in the process.
Putin has gone down this road so he can't turn back (he will not turn back) and the only thing stopping him is for the Russians to decide to get rid of his mission.
Q) Did you think the Ukrainians would resist so strongly?
= Of course.
I have known Ukraine for a long time.
I've been there countless times, and I've met people in person and talked about this issue.
But there was no question that the Ukrainians would resist this way.
They had a stronger military force than in 2014, and a stronger national identity.
With Crimea annexed by Russia, it became clear that Ukraine would fight next.
Go to Ukraine and talk to anyone.
Everyone is very determined.
Three Scenarios of the Ukrainian War... Falling into a long-running swamp
Q) How do you expect this war to go?
Do you expect Ukraine to endure to the end?
= Three scenarios are predictable.
The first is for Putin to succeed in destroying the Ukrainian army, occupying major cities, and creating a puppet government.
However, this scenario is the least likely to be realistic.
Because the Ukrainians continue to resist.
The second scenario would be to meet an internal uprising in the course of Russia's occupation.
This is a long, expensive and difficult effort required for Russia.
Ukraine will also be expensive.
However, this is the most feasible scenario.
It will be terrible for everyone as it goes on for several months.
A third scenario is that Russia will eventually remove Putin from power because of international sanctions.
However, it is not very feasible.
Maybe 20% or so?
In 80% of cases, the war will continue as described in the second scenario.
Q) How was the Ukrainian army able to stop the Russians?
= The first is that morale is high.
The Russian army went to war without knowing where it was going.
So there is little will to war.
And there is very little support.
So surrender immediately happens.
The second is that this is happening on Ukrainian territory.
They know the area and they know the way.
So I know how to fight there.
The third is that they have been trained and equipped for eight years.
In particular, anti-tank missiles and surface-to-air missiles are very effective.
Russia underestimated the capabilities of these devices and the Ukrainian soldiers.
Q) How do you view the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?
= Nothing will come out of these negotiations unless Russia thinks it has lost and feels compromising.
Of course, that won't happen as long as Putin is there.
It is possible if a new leader emerges.
Basically, Russia is using the deal to demand surrender from Ukraine.
But Ukraine will not do that.
Now the conversation is moving towards a humanitarian channel through which women and children can get out.
But it doesn't try to resolve the conflict.
The clash will not end until Putin stops, or Putin takes over Ukraine, or one of two things.
"If the killing of civilians continues, we have no choice but to reconsider NATO's decision"... "America needs to do more"
Q) NATO refused to establish a no-fly zone.
Why did you do this?
= There is a reason.
This is because of concerns that if the US and NATO set up this no-fly zone, they could directly collide with Russian aircraft or Russian forces.
That would lead to rising military tensions, and if NATO and Russia collide, there is a possibility of a nuclear conflict.
So the option was rejected.
But I do not agree.
There is a way to set up a no-fly zone without having to collide directly with the Russian military.
You can think of a way to set it to be limited to the Kiiwu area.
And it can tell very clearly the rules to intervene.
Setting it up does not mean hitting all targets of the Russian army.
Q) If the Russian military continues to kill people like they do now, wouldn't there be no other way than NATO or the US eventually joining the war?
= That's a really good question.
To avoid creating such a situation, NATO refused to establish a no-fly zone.
But seeing the genocide and atrocities continue on Ukrainian civilians, perhaps we cannot rule out a decision to reconsider.
By next week, you might say, 'Yeah, we can set up a no-fly zone.'
There are a lot of ways to help Ukraine, and it's hard to understand to rule out that.
It is possible that this decision will be overturned in the coming weeks.
Q) What is Biden going to do with this situation?
= Biden tries to avoid a direct conflict with Russia.
He said that he would only apply economic pressure in the hope that Russia's behavior would change.
I don't think that's enough.
we have to do more
Putin is responding with military logic.
It is not acting on economic logic.
We too must prove that his military logic is failing.
America hasn't done enough yet.
Putin's ambition to build a 'Russian Empire' witnessed firsthand in 2007... "The next target is Moldova"
Q) I read your politico article about Putin's ambitions to build the Russian Empire at the 2007 Munich Security Summit.
Have you been ambitious since then?
What was the atmosphere like?
= It was very shocking.
No one thought Putin would say such a thing.
We've been working with Russia for decades to strengthen European security.
We even had the NATO-Russian Council.
They were discussing peacekeeping and rescue operations.
However, the statement came out of nowhere.
Putin's language was very militant.
So the reaction was very paroxysmal.
Despite the linguistic rhetoric, people saw that Putin would not actually start a new Cold War.
But in reality he did.
He invaded Georgia in 2008.
He invaded Ukraine again in 2014.
In Britain, an attempt was made to assassinate dissidents.
The same thing happened at the DuPont Hotel in Washington.
Putting this all together, I should have understood what he was doing.
Looking at the results now, it is clear.
His ambition is to build the Russian Empire.
Q) Is there a possibility that Russia will invade other countries?
= Very likely.
Once Ukraine is annexed, he will quickly turn to Moldova.
And he will want where he was, Georgia and other Soviet countries that wanted to be Europe.
Especially Moldova is a very easy opponent.
It has already been occupied militarily to some extent.
We will force them to follow the Finnish model.
It will force them to give up their military power and make an agreement to cooperate with Russia.
I am really concerned that the next step will be the use of military force against Moldova.
Q) Anti-war protests are hot in Russia.
But with TV and internet in full control, what do you expect Putin to make in the future?
= Putin is very radically blocking the circulation of information.
Putin knows how explosive it is in Russia.
He tries so hard, but he can't stop the information from circulating.
The same goes for cutting off the internet and declaring martial law.
Russians have many means of communication.
Soldiers who went to Ukraine are now returning to Russia.
It will be a very volatile matter for Putin.
"Putin, the behavior of a madman"... "I fear that the establishment of democracy in Ukraine will be seen as a dictatorship failure"
Q) Many people are concerned about Putin's mental state.
is he normal?
= No.
He quarantined too much.
He said he didn't get any good advice.
Corona has made him paranoid enough to make him look virophobic.
And they did it, and Russia is dramatically ruining it.
The sanctions against Russia are very severe.
The Central Bank of Russia cannot do business.
Russia's economy is going to crash tremendously.
Russia will become an international bully.
And the war in Ukraine is destroying the Russian army.
All of this is irrational.
What you've done so far is the behavior of a maniac.
Q) Russia is a military power with nuclear weapons, so why does it have such security instability?
= There is no concrete basis for anyone to attack or threaten Russia.
Didn't NATO's armed forces keep dropping?
No one poses a threat to Russia.
The fear, in my view, is the fear that the establishment of democracy in Ukraine will be seen as a failure of the Russian dictatorship.
He does not want success in Ukraine.
To promote NATO expansion is just an excuse.
He wants to crush Ukraine's democracy.
Q) Putin advocated the eradication of neo-Nazis.
Zelensky is Jewish, so why a Nazi?
= This is just a Russian lie.
Ukraine is ruled by fascists who threaten Russia.
This is a blatant lie.
They're talking about the Nazis killing people who speak the Russian language, which is a complete lie.
The majority of Ukrainian troops now speak Russian.
Aren't they fighting Russia?
Putin just made up a few words to justify the invasion.
Q) What do you think about the claim that Zelensky provoked Russia to invade while joining NATO?
= Not true at all.
It is also a story made up by Russia.
It was coined to justify the aggression.
The real reason is Putin's own impulse to annihilate Ukraine as a democratic and independent state.
"NATO has no agreement to ban expansion"... “If Ukraine survives, it will change 100% of its attitude toward NATO membership.”
Q) Is it true that NATO will no longer accept membership in the East during the German reunification process?
So is there a theory of responsibility in the US?
= No This is not true.
There is an interview with Gorbachev and James Baker.
Both say there was no such agreement.
However, there was an agreement not to extend NATO's military facilities beyond former East German territory.
That was true.
But there was nothing about the decisions of other countries.
Eastern European countries can decide for themselves whether or not to join NATO.
The rest are made up by Russia to justify their actions.
Q) Can NATO accept Ukraine even now?
= Now Ukraine is fighting for survival.
NATO countries are interested in the survival of Ukraine and want to help.
If Ukraine survives, so if the Russians are defeated and withdraw from Ukraine, the attitude towards NATO membership will change 100%.
Perhaps other countries will be quick to join Ukraine to NATO to prevent this from happening.
"Russia is no longer a partner"... "We'll see NATO's massive arms buildup"
Q) You have worked directly with President Zelensky.
What kind of person is he?
= He did a great job as a leader.
He is charismatic and takes points quickly.
And he is an excellent communicator.
Although he was the direct target of a Russian assassination team, he leads the country.
He is an amazing leader.
Q) North Korea also fired ballistic missiles during this time.
What impact do you expect to have on North Korea?
= Interesting question.
Chairman Kim Jong-un seems to be very reluctant to see other crises get more attention.
He wants to be noticed.
He wants to show that there is another crisis in the world right now by firing missiles over and over again.
You'll probably see them firing missiles over and over again.
Such actions will show that a crisis is also underway in North Korea.
Q) How do you think the international situation will change in the future?
= There will be a fundamental change in the attitude towards Russia under Putin's leadership.
Russia is no longer an acceptable partner.
Only their army remains, and if sanctions are applied, resources will become scarce and the military power will inevitably weaken.
And apart from that, we'll see NATO's massive armaments build-up.
This is a wake up call. Germany doubled its defense budget a week ago to defend itself and support NATO.
In the long run, there will be fundamental changes.
Biden's self-inflicted 'weak president' image... Can we wait to see the gruesome civilian killings?
A study conducted by the Harvard American Political Research Institute in late February is significant.
59% of Americans said that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was because Biden looked weak.
It is true that the United States responded by actively engaging in a war of disclosure before the outbreak of war, but the White House is still approaching the Ukraine situation on the defensive.
Although sanctions are being imposed, they have not been able to preemptively take strong measures that exceed expectations.
In the end, it's enough to give the impression of being dragged around and reluctant to do everything you can to impose sanctions.
Americans traditionally have a strong tendency to unite in times of war.
The approval rating for the president is also usually rising, but Biden's approval rating is still in the 40% range.
It's a different story, but that's how the US handled the coronavirus.
The world was clamoring for vaccine inequality, but Biden insisted on purchasing and donating the vaccine, saying it would help the US economy and even catch Corona.
Several health experts have been clamoring for the US government to open up the technology and help the world quickly produce a vaccine, but Biden has rejected the call.
While holding rice cakes in both hands and saying that he would not let go of any, the corona eventually returned to mutation and held back the US economic recovery.
The White House eventually took the final measure of suspending Russian oil imports, and the resentment of Americans became even more self-assured.
Biden might protest, saying, 'If prices go up, you don't send your children to war.'
It is doubtful that Americans know such Democrat-style meticulousness.
By rejecting Ukraine's desperate demands, whose lives are at stake, the US is even more likely to be accused of being a 'bad Samaritan'.
Republicans are emphasizing the image of a weak president, and public opinion is growing more sympathetic to Ukraine's cry for help.
Rather, it seems that Americans are paying more attention to Zelensky's remarks even within the United States.
Like Trump, if we declared that we don't care about European affairs, the criticism of ignoring the Biden administration, which advocated restoring the values of the free camp, is bound to grow.
On social media, the tragic bodies of children who escaped through the humanitarian channel are being uploaded.
There is an indescribable tragedy in which children evacuating to a safe place have their bodies broken and crushed by bombs.
In this situation, the US is eventually pushed back and has no choice but to intervene through military action to some extent.
In the end, Biden is worried that he will make the worst political choice, not getting the image of a wartime president, eating cursing as a curse as he does everything he has to do.