International oil prices continue to rise, and the US and European economies regenerate variables?

(Finance and Economics) International oil prices are rising steadily, and the US and European economies are regenerating?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 9 (Liu Wenwen) The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, and sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States have also escalated again.

　　On March 8, local time, U.S. President Biden formally signed an executive order banning U.S. energy imports from Russia, including a ban on imports of Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal.

　　The UK followed suit, announcing plans to stop imports of Russian oil and corresponding petroleum products by the end of 2022.

　　Recently, the market's concerns about the escalation of sanctions affecting crude oil have been escalating, and international oil prices have been running at a high level.

Affected by the ban, international oil prices rose again.

　　As of the close on the 8th local time, light sweet crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.60% to close at $123.70 a barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose 3.87% to close at $127.98 a barrel.

　　On the same day that Biden announced the ban on Russian oil, the American Automobile Association data showed that the average gasoline price in the United States rose to $4.173 a gallon, breaking the record set in July 2008.

Regular gasoline prices have risen 15% over the past week, their biggest weekly gain in nearly 20 years.

　　At the same time, the ban exacerbated investor panic. Investors were generally worried that energy prices would rise further, so they sold stocks and hoarded safe-haven assets, causing U.S. stocks to fall on the day.

　　"For the United States, this may be one of the hardest choices," Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, told China News Agency.

　　The analysis believes that this "most difficult" comes from two aspects.

On the one hand, there is huge domestic pressure, and the ban will further increase domestic oil prices in the United States and increase the cost of living for American families.

On the other hand, the US move also makes the EU very embarrassed.

Since the EU is highly dependent on Russia for its energy supply, with about 30% of its crude oil and 40% of its natural gas coming from Russia, if the EU is aligned with the US, it will put energy security at risk.

　　Lin Boqiang believes that until the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is well resolved, the international oil price will continue to run at a high level, and it will be difficult to return to the previous level.

If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be properly resolved, and the Iranian nuclear talks make progress, and Iran releases crude oil supplies, then oil prices will fall, "but it is difficult to judge now."

　　There is no doubt that rising oil prices will lead to the rebirth of economic variables in the United States and Europe, or make inflation worse.

　　Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, pointed out that the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine directly suppressed the supply-side expectations of upstream commodities, which in turn pushed up prices significantly. warming up.

As for the EU, due to the high dependence on Russia for energy supply, the continuous restriction of oil and gas supply under the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will lead to a more complex and passive macro environment for the EU than others, which will hinder the progress of the normalization of the ECB’s monetary policy.

　　Wang Tao, managing director and chief China economist at UBS Asia Economic Research, pointed out that if the United States and Europe boycott Russian energy or Russia cuts off energy exports, it will have a greater negative impact on the European economy, or indirectly affect the pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes.

　　"At this juncture, the Fed is also in a dilemma. Not raising interest rates means that inflation will further rise, and raising interest rates may affect the pace of economic recovery. The originally relatively certain rate hike expectations still seem to be uncertain." Lin Boqiang said.

(over)