Embargo against Russia?: Shockwaves for the energy transition

Germany fears the shock waves of the war in Ukraine, but the traffic light coalition fears above all about the energy transition.

Even in times of peace, their specifications called security of supply into question, and now even more so.

An oil embargo would not be as easy for the EU to cope with as it is for America, which is now acting unilaterally.

But similar to the case of coal imports from Russia, a flexible world market would make it possible to obtain replacements more quickly, albeit more expensively.

But what about natural gas?

What would be the consequences of an embargo or a Russian export ban?

Would a dream come true for radical climate protectionists, or would that, as Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer says, simply be "devastating"?

Even after the experiences of the past gas wars, the EU is still not immune to nasty surprises.

Although the sources of supply are more diverse, the network of Europeans has become tighter.

But Robert Habeck's assurance that we could make ends meet with new supply contracts and full storage facilities probably has more to do with fighting panic than with security of supply.

Above all, that doesn't help us at the moment.

In any case, the government cannot take it as calmly as the opposition calls for a general embargo.

However, the energy transition as planned can no longer be saved anyway.

It's cheap to say that wind and solar power are now even more the best solution.

Apart from the fact that even Habeck cannot conjure up the necessary expansion, there is still a supply gap in the long term.

After the nuclear and coal phase-out, this should primarily be filled with (Russian) natural gas.

At least thirty gas-fired power plants would have to be built for this – not at some point before the coal phase-out in 2030, but immediately, three to four a year.

This is illusory.

Kretschmer is not the only one who considers the phase-out of coal to be obsolete, others the phase-out of nuclear power.

An embargo would only accelerate these insights.

They are also necessary without them.