A Moroccan academic talks about the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the position of Arab countries on it

The Moroccan academic who specializes in international relations, Said Al-Siddiqi, said that the Arab countries are trying to stand at the same distance from Russia and Ukraine, noting that it is difficult to anticipate the outcome of the war between them, as it will remain open to all scenarios.

In an interview with Anadolu Agency, Al-Siddiqi - a professor at Sidi Mohamed bin Abdullah University (governmental) in Fez - said that the Russian-Ukrainian war has become at a critical stage and it is now difficult to predict its outcome, especially since the two direct parties did not achieve any field breakthrough, nor did they achieve any None of them are expected.

And Russia launched - at dawn on February 24 last - a military operation in Ukraine, which was followed by angry international reactions and the imposition of severe economic and financial sanctions on Moscow.

The crisis is open

Al-Siddiqi considered that the crisis will remain open to all scenarios, especially from the Russian side, which thought that it would resolve the battle within a few days.

He added, "The outcome of this war remains ambiguous in terms of the field and the military, and senior military and strategic analysts did not expect this dilemma in which Russian President Vladimir Putin put himself."

And he added, "At the interim level, nothing can be expected, and even the negotiations that were launched during the past days are not expected of much, because the field does not help to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough, but the mediations carried out by some countries are important at this stage, to maintain the lines of communication between the parties".

On February 28, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia began with the meeting of the two countries' delegations to negotiate in the Belarusian city of Gomel, but it yielded nothing.

Crisis Impact Levels

On the repercussions of the war on the Arab countries and Morocco, Al-Siddiqi said that a distinction should be made between the levels of impact, as it is expected that Morocco and many Arab countries will be affected, especially importers of wheat, gas and oil, which will witness a significant increase in the next few days.

He added that the expected rises in wheat, oil and gas prices in the international market will increase the economic and social repercussions of the Corona pandemic in the region, as well as the unprecedented drought that North African countries are witnessing.

And the Moroccan academic added that "politically speaking, the Arab countries - in general, including Morocco - have so far been trying to maintain the same distance between the various parties, anticipating the developments of the crisis, and do not want to align themselves with this or that side."

He explained that these countries deal with the crisis politically with cautious pragmatism, but if things develop and a sharp international polarization occurs, Morocco and other Arab countries must take into account the choice based on their economic and political interests in standing with this side or that, even if it is not a support clear to either party.

However, Al-Siddiqi, a specialist in international relations, added that the Arab countries - including Morocco - will make accurate calculations, and can choose positive neutrality, and express certain positions that implicitly benefit from that they support this or that party.

Regarding the economic effects of the war, Al-Siddiqi said there is no doubt that the war will have economic and financial repercussions on various Arab countries, including Morocco.

Changing the international system

With regard to the reflection of the war on the formation of a new international order, the Moroccan academic considered that it is difficult to say that this war will lead to an important change in the structure of the international system, if the crisis goes in a very dangerous direction and affects the balance of power in Europe.

He added that this matter is not expected, especially since the West has taken very large sanctions that will cause economic and financial stress and great political isolation for Russia.

He pointed out that whoever thought that Russia could strengthen its position by invading Ukraine is mistaken, because this war will lead to weakening its position in the international system, especially since sanctions in this form were not expected.

He concluded that the international system will not be affected and its structure will remain the same, and the conflict in the future will be between two major poles, namely America and China, and Russia in the past years was a medium actor and was not a major actor, and it does not have the elements of a superpower, so its absence and weakness will not affect The structure of the international system.